Urban soil moisture dynamics and meteorological controls under changing climatic conditions: a case study of Kraków (Poland)

Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul; Karolina Łach

doi:10.37705/TechTrans/e2026019

.blurhash-client-img { display: none !important; }

Urban soil moisture dynamics and meteorological controls under changing climatic conditions: a case study of Kraków (Poland)

Technical Transactions

Volume 123 (2026): Issue 1 (January 2026)

By: Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul and Karolina Łach

Open Access

|Aug 2026

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationships between soil moisture and selected climatic variables: air temperature t, relative humidity RH, and the antecedent precipitation index API. The analysis is based on in situ measurements from a research cross-section in the Sudół River catchment in Kraków, Poland, covering the period 2018–2025, supplemented with satellite-derived surface soil moisture data SM_surf from the Copernicus program. The study examines the temporal variability, seasonality, and long-term trends of soil moisture, as well as its correlation and regression relationships with climatic factors.

The results reveal a clear seasonal pattern of soil moisture, with maxima in winter and spring and minima in summer. A significant decreasing trend was observed, especially in transitional months (May and September), indicating increasing drought susceptibility. The antecedent precipitation index was the primary control on soil moisture, while air temperature mainly enhanced spring – summer deficits and relative humidity played a secondary role. Moderate but significant agreement between in situ and satellite data supports the value of combining ground-based and remote sensing observations for soil moisture and water resource monitoring under changing climate conditions.

References

Baran-Gurgul, K., Wałęga, A. (2025). Regionalisation of Summer Hydrological Droughts Variability in Poland in Period 1993–2022. Int. J. Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70186
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Baryła, A., Kaczmarczyk, A., Bus, A., Kożuchowski, P. (2017). Assessments of anterior precipitation index for the description moisture layers on extensive green roof. Acta Sci. Pol. Formatio Circumiectus 16(4), 23–34. https://doi.org/10.15576/ASP.FC/2017.16.4.23
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Benson, D.O., Dirmeyer, P.A. (2021). Characterizing the relationship between temperature and soil moisture extremes and their role in the exacerbation of heat waves over the contiguous United States. J. Clim. 34, 2175–2187. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0440.1
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Dincă, L., Badea, O., Guiman, G., Bragă, C., Crisan, V., Greavu, V., Murariu, G., Georgescu, L. (2018). Monitoring of soil moisture in Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites of Romanian Carpathians. Ann. For. Res. 61, 171–188. https://doi.org/10.15287/afr.2018.1188
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., at. al. (2017). ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions. Remote Sens. Environ. 203, 185–215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ghazi, B., Salehi, H., Przybylak, R., Pospieszyńska, A. (2025). Projection of climate change impact on the occurrence of drought events in Poland. Sci. Rep. 15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90488-0
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gleeson, T., Befus, K.M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., Cardenas, M.B. (2016). The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater. Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2590
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gobatti, L., Bach, P. M., Maurer, M., & Leitão, J. P. (2025). Impact of soil moisture content on urban tree evaporative cooling and human thermal comfort. Npj Urban Sustainability, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00220-0
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Godyń, I., Bodziony, M., Grela, A., Muszyński, K., Pamuła, J. (2023). Determination of Pollution and Environmental Risk Assessment of Stormwater and the Receiving River, Case Study of the Sudół River Catchment, Poland. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 20. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010504
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Górnik, A., Matyka, M. (2016). Metody monitoringu wilgotności gleby. Zagadnienia doradztwa rolniczego 2, 114–126.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Helsel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M., Ryberg, K.R., Archfield, S.A., Gilroy, E.J. (2020). Statistical methods in water resources. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data Release. https://doi.org/10.5066/P9JWL6XR
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hirschi, M., Mueller, B., Dorigo, W., Seneviratne, S.I. (2014). Using remotely sensed soil moisture for land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics: The role of surface vs. root-zone soil moisture variability. Remote Sens. Environ. 154, 246–252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.08.030
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R., Smith, R.A. (1982). Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data. Water Resour. Res. 18, 107–121.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hunt, E.D., Hubbard, K.G., Wilhite, D.A., Arkebauer, T.J., Dutcher, A.L. (2009). The development and evaluation of a soil moisture index. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 747–759. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1749
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Husain, S. Z., Bélair, S., & Leroyer, S. (2014). Influence of soil moisture on urban microclimate and surface-layer meteorology in Oklahoma City. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53(1), 83–98. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0156.1
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
IMGW-PIB (2023). Klimat Polski 2022. Warszawa.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2023). Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1513–1766. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
McColl, K.A., Alemohammad, S.H., Akbar, R., Konings, A.G., Yueh, S., Entekhabi, D. (2017). The global distribution and dynamics of surface soil moisture. Nat. Geosci. 10, 100–104. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2868
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Moraes, M.A.E. De, Filho, W.M.M., Mendes, R.M., Bortolozo, C.A., Metodiev, D., Andrade, M.R.M. De, Egas, H.M., Mendes, T.S.G., Pampuch, L.A. (2024). Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides. International Journal of Geosciences 15, 70–86. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2024.151006
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Niemczyk, H., Kowalska, B., Majewski, G. (2005). Analysis relationship between actual soil moisture of light earth ploughing topsoil and anterior precipitation indexes. Sci. Rev. Eng. Env. Sci. 2(32).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Orth, R., Seneviratne, S.I. (2012). Analysis of soil moisture memory from observations in Europe. J. Geoph. Res., D 117. https://doi. org/10.1029/2011JD017366
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Pinskwar, I., Chorynski, A., Kundzewicz, Z.W. (2020). Severe drought in the spring of 2020 in Poland – More of the same? Agronomy 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10111646
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Przeździecki, K., & Zawadzki, J. (2023). Impact of the Variability of Vegetation, Soil Moisture, and Building Density between City Districts on Land Surface Temperature, Warsaw, Poland. Sustainability (Switzerland), 15(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021274
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Hari, V., Markonis, Y., Moravec, V., Thober, S., Hanel, M., Kumar, R. (2022). The 2018–2020 Multi-Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe. Earths Future 10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002394
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
R Core Team (2024). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Roman Quintero, D.C., van der Ent, R., Bogaard, T., Greco, R., 2025. Climate change may increase landslide frequency despite generally drier conditions in the Mediterranean area. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5826
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Seneviratne, S.I., Corti, T., Davin, E.L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E.B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., Teuling, A.J. (2010). Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sen, P.K. (1968). Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63, 1379–1389.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Singh, N.K., Emanuel, R.E., McGlynn, B.L., Miniat, C.F. (2021). Soil Moisture Responses to Rainfall: Implications for Runoff Generation. Water Resour. Res. 57, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028827
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Skiba, S., Drewnik, M., Szymański, W. (2023). Soils of the Kraków area. Wszechświat 124, 299–307.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Somorowska, U. (2022). Amplified signals of soil moisture and evaporative stresses across Poland in the twenty-first century. Sci. Total Environ. 812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151465
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sun, F., Lü, Y., Wang, J., Hu, J., Fu, B. (2015). Soil moisture dynamics of typical ecosystems in response to precipitation: A monitoring-based analysis of hydrological service in the Qilian Mountains. Catena (Amst). 129, 63–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.03.001
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Navarro, A., Barbosa, J., Jager, D., Ficchi, A., Fioravanti, A., Grimaldi, G., Essenfelder, H., Magni, A., Mccormick, M., Salamon, N., Nunes, S., Volpi, S. (2025). GDO Analytical Report. https://doi.org/10.2760/1544910
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Tuttle, S., Salvucci, G. (2016). Empirical evidence of contrasting soil moisture – precipitation feedbacks across the United States. Science (1979). 352, 825–828. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa7185
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wagner, W., Hahn, S., Kidd, R., Melzer, T., Bartalis, Z., Hasenauer, S., Figa-Saldaña, J., De Rosnay, P., Jann, A., Schneider, S., Komma, J., Kubu, G., Brugger, K., Aubrecht, C., Züger, J., Gangkofner, U., Kienberger, S., Brocca, L., Wang, Y., Blöschl, G., Eitzinger, J., Steinnocher, K., Zeil, P., Rubel, F. (2013). The ASCAT soil moisture product: A review of its specifications, validation results, and emerging applications. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0399
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Western, A.W., Grayson, R.B., Blöschl, G. (2002). Scaling of soil moisture: A hydrologic perspective. Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 30, 149–180. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.30.091201.140434
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhao, B., Dai, Q., Han, D., Dai, H., Mao, J., Zhuo, L., Rong, G. (2019). Estimation of soil moisture using modified antecedent precipitation index with application in landslide predictions. Landslides 16, 2381–2393. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01255-y
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37705/TechTrans/e2026019 | Journal eISSN: 2353-737X | Journal ISSN: 0011-4561

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Submitted on: Feb 26, 2026

Accepted on: Jun 11, 2026

Published on: Aug 3, 2026

Published by: Cracow University of Technology

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

Keywords:

soil moisture,

climate change,

drought,

antecedent precipitation index API,

urban area

Related subjects:

Architecture and design,

Architecture,

Architects, buildings,

Engineering,

Mechanical engineering,

Mechanics,

Industrial chemistry,

Chemical engineering,

Materials sciences,

Materials sciences, other

© 2026 Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul, Karolina Łach, published by Cracow University of Technology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License.

Volume 123 (2026): Issue 1 (January 2026)