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A New Method for an Objective Measurement of the Judicial Workload – the Application of a Prediction Model Based on an Algorithm Formed by Multiple Linear Regression in Court Administration Cover

A New Method for an Objective Measurement of the Judicial Workload – the Application of a Prediction Model Based on an Algorithm Formed by Multiple Linear Regression in Court Administration

Open Access
|Apr 2022

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Assessing case weighting models according to their accuracy, detail, and research resource demands.

Table 1

The average value of the working time demand in cases of concealment of assets and other offences and the results of the hypothesis and relationship tests.

THE VALUE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INITIAL DOCUMENTNMEAN OF THE WORKING TIME DEMAND (HOURS)MANN-WHITNEY TESTKENDALL TAU TEST
RANK SUMUZ ADJUSTEDP-LEVELKENDALL TAUZp
concealment of assets: no73410.465270185440–2.4180.0160.0732.9590.003
concealment of assets: yes422.1122506
Table 2

Descriptive statistics of continuum initial document variables.

THE NAME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INITIAL DOCUMENTNMEANCONFIDENCE –95%CONFIDENCE +95%MEDIANMIN.MAX.LOWER QUARTILEUPPER QUARTILESTD. DEV.STD. ERRORSKEWNESSKURTOSIS
the scope of the indictment7382.5872.3792.79520381.32.82.8780.1065.65645.382
the length of investigation files738113.387101.796124.978650173530135160.3935.9044.17126.135
length of the appendices to the investigation file7380.1900.0350.3460050002.1520.07918.839406.394
number of expert opinions attached7380.5990.5020.6960016011.3480.0505.48242.869
the number of witnesses proposed to be heard7382.7012.3273.0742061045.1680.1906.71859.693
the number of exhibits7381.6331.0272.23900184008.3810.30915.275309.365
the number of accused7381.4461.3631.5291012111.1510.0423.86220.878
the number of acts charged7382.3751.8352.91610156127.4740.27514.047255.708
criminal offenses of fraud (section 318.(4)–(7) of CC.)7380.3520.0300.6750097004.4640.16417.808343.323
other crimes7380.8360.6760.9961031012.2190.0829.599108.579
crimes against public confidence (title III in chapter XVI. of CC.)7380.2720.1430.4020033001.7920.06612.812195.888
misdemeanours for offences against property (chapter XVIII. of CC.)7380.2410.1860.296008000.7610.0285.24535.648
Table 3

Results of correlation studies between continuous initial document variables and working time demand.

THE NAME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INITIAL DOCUMENTKENDALL TAU TEST
KENDALL TAUZp
the scope of the indictment0.40716.5420.000
the length of investigation files0.50920.6760.000
length of the appendices to the investigation file0.0843.4100.001
number of expert opinions attached0.25510.3610.000
the number of witnesses proposed to be heard0.42117.1230.000
the number of exhibits0.2309.3580.000
number of accused0.27311.1170.000
the number of acts charged0.31712.8700.000
criminal offenses of fraud (section 318. (4)–(7) of CC.)0.1576.3990.000
other crimes–0.050–2.0300.042
crimes against public confidence (title III in chapter XVI. of CC.)0.0853.4580.001
misdemeanours for offences against property (chapter XVIII. of CC.)0.1014.1180.000
Table 4

Scoreboard of multiple linear regression calculations between working time demand as a dependent variable and initial document characteristics as independent variables based on filtered data.

MULTIPLEMULTIPLEADJUSTEDSSdfMSSSdfMSFp
RR2R2ModelModelModelResidualResidualResidual
0.7910.6250.58552.530700.75031.5316600.04815.7080.000
Table 5

The role of each initial document variable in the model constructed from the filtered data.

THE NAME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INITIAL DOCUMENTLOG(WORKING TIME DEMAND+2)
PARAMETERtpBETA (ß)
intercept–0.072–0.2770.782
the scope of the indictment10.1761.7140.0870.066
the length of investigation files0.1797.7750.0000.318
length of the appendices to the investigation file0.2021.6350.1030.046
the number of witnesses proposed to be heard0.2014.4660.0000.157
the number of experts proposed to be heard0.3601.9860.0470.052
the number of exhibits0.2211.4020.1610.042
the number of accused1.2903.3780.0010.104
the number of acts charged5.0462.1600.0310.090
the number of criminal offenses of fraud (section 318. (4)–(7) of CC.)1.8781.6160.1070.052
the number of crimes against public confidence (title III in chapter XVI. of CC.)–0.206–2.2020.028–0.063
the number of robberies (section 321. of CC.)0.4322.1620.0310.061
the case is privately prosecuted (Y/N)–0.125–1.3090.191–0.279
the accused has been convicted of all acts (full confession) (Y/N)–0.131–1.2180.224–0.346
concealment of assets (section 330 (1) of CC.) (Y/N)0.0310.2800.7790.013
criminal form of misappropriation of funds (section 319 (3) of CC.) (Y/N)–0.110–1.2040.229–0.034
the case was originally initiated without a hearing (Y/N)–0.115–1.3630.173–0.176
Table 6

Final result table of multiple linear regression calculations between working time demand as a dependent variable and initial document characteristics as independent variables based on filtered data.

MULTIPLEMULTIPLEADJUSTEDSSdfMSSSdfMSFp
RR2R2ModelModelModelResidualResidualResidual
0.7700.5920.57049.778371.34534.2836930.04927.1950.000
Table 7

The role of each initial document variable in the final model, based on the filtered data and the presence of multicollinearity.

THE NAME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INITIAL DOCUMENTLOG(WORKING TIME DEMAND+2)
PARAMETERtpBETA (ß)TVIF
intercept–0.140–0.7070.480
the scope of the indictment14.8982.6010.0090.0960.4302.326
the length of investigation files0.21310.6100.0000.3790.4612.171
length of the appendices to the investigation file0.1831.5180.1290.0410.8001.250
the number of witnesses proposed to be heard0.2385.4640.0000.1850.5111.956
the number of experts proposed to be heard0.2681.5110.1310.0390.8881.127
the number of accused1.1403.0360.0020.0920.6401.563
the number of acts charged5.1352.2090.0280.0910.3462.890
the number of criminal offenses of fraud (section 318. (4)–(7) of CC.)1.4581.2700.2050.0410.5771.734
the number of crimes against public confidence (title III in chapter XVI. of CC.)–0.207–2.2310.026–0.0640.7251.380
the number of robberies (section 321. of CC.)0.3081.6190.1060.0440.8041.243
concealment of assets (section 330 (1) of CC.) (Y/N)–0.141–2.4910.013–0.0610.9751.026
criminal form of misappropriation of funds (section 319 (3) of CC.) (Y/N)0.000–1.2540.210–0.0350.7681.302
Figure 2

Bar graph and P-P plot diagram of the distribution of residuals.

Table 8

Comparison of the current “piece-by-piece” method and the regression model (based on filtered data, N = 731).

MEASURED DURING THE EXAMINATION OF THE FILES“PIECE-BY-PIECE” METHODPREDICTED BY THE MODEL
sum of working time demand (hours)7490.287490.286530.1
mean of working time demand (hours)10.2510.258.93
sum of residual (hours)05781.863060.25
mean of residual (hours)07.914.19
sum of residual/sum of working time demand (%)077.1946.86
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36745/ijca.407 | Journal eISSN: 2156-7964
Language: English
Page range: 2 - 2
Published on: Apr 22, 2022
Published by: International Association for Court Administration
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2022 László Örkényi, published by International Association for Court Administration
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.