Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios Cover

Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

Open Access
|Jan 2013

References

  1. Allen M. R , Frame D. J , Huntingford C , Jones C. D , Lowe J. A , co-authors . Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne . Nature . 2009 ; 458 : 1163 1166 .
  2. Annan J. D , Hargreaves J. C . On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity . Clim. Change . 2009 ; 104 : 423 436 .
  3. Arora V. K , Boer G. J , Friedlingstein P , Eby M , Jones C. D , co-authors . Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth system models . J. Clim . 2013 . 26, 5289–5314. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00494.1 .
  4. Arora V. K , Scinocca J. F , Boer G. J , Christian J. R , Denman K. L , co-authors . Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2011 ; 38 : 05805 .
  5. Bodman R. W , Rayner P. J , Karoly D. J . Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations . Nat. Clim. Change . 2013 . 3, 725–729. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1903 .
  6. Bowerman N. H. A , Frame D. J , Huntingford C , Lowe J. A , Allen M. R . Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy . Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A . 2011 ; 369 : 45 66 .
  7. Brohan P , Kennedy J. J , Harris I , Tett S. F. B , Jones P. D . Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850 . J. Geophys. Res . 2006 ; 111 : 12106 .
  8. Clarke L , Edmonds J , Jacoby H , Pitcher H , Reilly J , co-authors . Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research .
  9. Clarke L , Edmonds J , Jacoby H , Pitcher H , Reilly J , co-authors . Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research .
  10. Forster P , Ramaswamy V , Artaxo P , Berntsen T , Betts R , co-authors . Solomon S , Qin D , Manning M , Chen Z , Marquis M , co-authors . Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing . Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . 2007 ; Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA : Cambridge University Press . 129 234 .
  11. Friedlingstein P , Cox P , Betts R , Bopp L , von Bloh W , co-authors . Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison . J. Clim . 2006 ; 19 : 3337 3353 .
  12. Ganachaud A . Large-scale mass transports, water mass formation, and diffusivities estimated from World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) hydrographic data . J. Geophys. Res . 2003 ; 108 ( C7 ): 3213 .
  13. Gent P. R , McWilliams J. C . Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models . J. Phys. Oceanogr . 1990 ; 20 : 150 155 .
  14. Gregory J. M , Jones C. D , Cadule P , Friedlingstein P . Quantifying carbon cycle feedbacks . J. Clim . 2009 ; 22 : 5232 5250 .
  15. Hajima T , Ise T , Tachiiri K , Kato E , Watabnabe S , Kawamiya M . Climate change, allowable emission, and earth system response to representative concentration pathway scenarios . J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn . 2012 ; 90 ( 3 ): 417 434 .
  16. Harris G. R , Sexton D. M. H , Booth B. B. B , Collins M , Murphy J. M . Probabilistic projections of transient climate change . Clim. Dynam . 2013 . 40, 2937–2972. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1647-y .
  17. Hegerl G. C , Zwiers F. W , Braconnot P , Gillett N. P , Luo Y , co-authors . Solomon S . Understanding and attributing climate change . Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change . 2007 ; Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA : Cambridge University Press . 663 745 .
  18. Houghton R. A , van der Werf G. R , DeFries R. S , Hansen M. C , House J. I , co-authors . Chapter G2 Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change . Biogeosci. Discuss . 2012 ; 9 : 835 878 .
  19. Huntingford C . Climate projection: refining global warming projections . Nat. Clim. Change . 2013 ; 3 : 704 705 .
  20. Huntingford C , Lowe J. A , Gohar L. K , Bowerman N. H. A , Allen M. R , co-authors . The link between a global 2°C warming threshold and emissions in years 2020, 2050 and beyond, Environ . Res. Lett . 2012 ; 7 ( 1 ): 014039 .
  21. Ishii M , Kimoto M . Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections . J. Oceanogr . 2009 ; 65 : 287 299 .
  22. Ito A , Oikawa T . A simulation model of the carbon cycle in land ecosystems (Sim-CYCLE): a description based on drymatter production theory and plot-scale validation . Ecol. Model . 2002 ; 151 : 143 176 .
  23. Jones C. D , Robertson E , Arora V , Friedlingstein P , Shevliakova E , co-authors . 21st Century compatible CO2 emissions and airborne fraction simulated by CMIP5 earth system models under 4 representative concentration pathways . J. Clim . 2013 . 26, 4398–4413. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00554.1 .
  24. K-1 model developers . K-1 Coupled GCM (MIROC) Description, K-1 Technical Report No. 1 . 2004 . Online at: http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/kyosei/hasumi/MIROC/tech-repo.pdf .
  25. Kistler R , Kalnay E , Collins W , Saha S , White G , co-authors . The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation . Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc . 2001 ; 82 : 247 268 .
  26. Knutti R , Abramowitz G , Collins M , Eyring V , Gleckler P. J , co-authors . Stocker T. F , Qin D , Plattner G.-K , Tignor M , Midgley P. M . In: Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections . 2010 ; University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland : IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit . Online at: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/meetings/EMs/IPCC_EM_MultiModelEvaluation_MeetingReport.pdf .
  27. Lenton T. M . Land and ocean carbon cycle feedback effects on global warming in a simple earth system model . Tellus . 2000 ; 52B : 1159 1188 .
  28. Le Quéré C , Raupach M. R , Canadell J. G , Marland G , Bopp L , co-authors . Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide . Nat. Geosci . 2009 ; 2 : 831 836 .
  29. Levitus S , Antonov J. I , Boyer T. P , Locarnini R. A , Garcia H. E , co-authors . Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems . Geophys. Res. Lett . 2009 ; 36 : 07608 .
  30. Lohmann U , Feichter J . Global indirect aerosol effects: a review . Atmos. Chem. Phys . 2005 ; 5 : 715 737 .
  31. Lumpkin R , Speer K . Global ocean meridional overturning . J. Phys. Oceanogr . 2010 ; 37 : 2550 2562 .
  32. Matthews H. D , Gillett N. P , Stott P. A , Zickfeld K . The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions . Nature . 2009 ; 459 : 829 832 .
  33. Meinshausen M , Meinshausen N , Hare W , Raper S. C. B , Frieler K , co-authors . Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C . Nature . 2009 ; 458 : 1158 1162 .
  34. Meinshausen M , Raper S. C. B , Wigley T. M. L . Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: model description and calibration . Atmos. Chem. Phys . 2011a ; 11 : 1417 1456 .
  35. Meinshausen M , Smith S. J , Calvin K. V , Daniel J. S , Kainuma M , co-authors . The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300 . Clim. Change . 2011b ; 109 : 213 241 .
  36. Meinshausen M , Wigley T. M. L , Raper S. C. B . Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: applications . Atmos. Chem. Phys . 2011c ; 11 : 1457 1471 .
  37. Moss R , Edmonds J , Hibbard K , Manning M , Rose S , co-authors . The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment . Nature . 2010 ; 463 : 747 756 .
  38. Murphy J. M , Sexton D. M. H , Barnett D. N , Jones G. S , Webb M. J , co-authors . Quantifying uncertainties in climate change from a large ensemble of general circulation model predictions . Nature . 2004 ; 430 : 768 772 .
  39. Oka A , Tajika E , Abe-Ouchi A , Kubota K . Role of the ocean in controlling atmospheric CO2 concentration in the course of global glaciations . Clim. Dyn . 2011 ; 37 : 1755 1770 .
  40. Oort A. H . Global atmospheric circulation statistics, 1958–1973 . NOAA Prof Pap . 1983 ; 14 : 180 .
  41. Orr J , Najjar R , Sabine C , Joos F . Abiotic-HOWTO Revision: 1.16 . 2000 . Online at: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/oce/klindsay/ocmip/HOWTO-Abiotic.pdf .
  42. Quaas J , Ming Y , Menon S , Takemura T , Wang M , co-authors . Aerosol indirect effects—general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data . Atmos. Chem. Phys . 2009 ; 9 : 8697 8717 .
  43. Raupach M. R . The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings . Earth Syst. Dynam . 2013 ; 4 : 31 49 .
  44. Shindell D. T , Lamarque J.-F , Schulz M , Flanner M , Jiao C , co-authors . Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations . Atmos. Chem. Phys . 2013 ; 13 : 2939 2974 .
  45. Smethie W. M Jr. , Fine R. A . Rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories . Deep-Sea Res. PT1 . 2001 ; 48 : 189 215 .
  46. Smith S. J , Wigley T. M. L . Multi-gas forcing stabilization with the MiniCAM . Energ. J . 2006 Special Issue No. 3 373 391 .
  47. Tachiiri K , Hargreaves J. C , Annan J. D , Oka A , Abe-Ouchi A , co-authors . Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in earth system models . Geosci. Model Dev . 2010 ; 3 : 365 376 .
  48. Tachiiri K , Ito A , Hajima T , Hargreaves J. C , Annan J. D , co-authors . Nonlinearity of land carbon sensitivities in climate change simulations . J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn . 2012 ; 90A : 271 276 .
  49. Talley L. D , Reid J. L , Robbins P. E . Data-based meridional overturning streamfunctions for the global ocean . J. Clim . 2003 ; 16 : 3213 3226 .
  50. Taylor K. E , Stouffer R. J , Meehl G. A . A summary of the CMIP5 experimental design . 2009 . Online at: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_22Jan11_marked.pdf .
  51. Trenberth K. E , Jones P. D , Ambenje P , Bojariu R , Easterling D , co-authors . Solomon S . Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change . Climate Change 2007: In The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . 2007 ; Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA : Cambridge University Press . 235 336 .
  52. van Vuuren D , den Elzen M , Lucas P , Eickhout B , Strengers B , co-authors . Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs . Clim. Change . 2007 ; 81 ( 2 ): 119 159 .
  53. Wise M. A , Calvin K. V , Thomson A. M , Clarke L. E , Bond-Lamberty B , co-authors . Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy . Science . 2009 ; 324 : 1183 1186 .
  54. Yokohata T , Annan J. D , Hargreaves J. C , Jackson C. S , Tobis M , co-authors . Reliability of multi-model and structurally different single-model ensembles . Clim. Dyn . 2011 ; 39 ( 3–4 ): 599 616 .
  55. Yoshikawa C , Kawamiya M , Kato T , Yamanaka Y , Matsuno T . Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle . J. Geophys. Res . 2008 ; 113 : 03002 .
  56. Zheng D. L , Prince S. D , Wright R . NPP Multi-Biome: gridded estimates for selected regions worldwide, 1989–2001, R1 . 2003 . Online at: http://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=614, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A. .
Language: English
Page range: 20586 - 20586
Submitted on: Feb 7, 2013
Accepted on: Sep 26, 2013
Published on: Jan 1, 2013
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2013 Kaoru Tachiiri, Julia C. Hargreaves, James D. Annan, Chris Huntingford, Michio Kawamiya, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.