Fig. 1.
(A) Representative probability density function for equilibrium climate sensitivity (°C per doubling of atmospheric CO2) and (B) probability density function of the ocean diffusivity parameter K bg, calculated using the method of Goes et al. (2010), with ocean temperature as observational constraint.
Fig. 2.
(A) Globally averaged ocean heat flux, (B) global ocean carbon uptake and (C) change in surface atmospheric temperature between the year 1800 and 2000 for different ocean diffusivities.
Fig. 3.
Change in global temperatures (°C) between the year 2000 and 2100 levels for the four ocean diffusivity experiments at seven climate sensitivities.
Fig. 4.
Maximum rate of temperature change (°C/decade) occurring between the year 2000 and 2100 for the four ocean diffusivity experiments at seven climate sensitivities.
Fig. 5.
(A) Probability density functions of and (B) probability of exceeding the maximum rate of temperature change with varying ocean diffusivity, K bg. Dashed lines denote likelihood regions (likely – >66%, unlikely – <33%, very unlikely − <10%).
Fig. 6.
The maximum rate of temperature change in °C/decade between the year 2000 and 2100 as a function of ocean diffusivity and climate sensitivity. PDFs for climate sensitivity (bottom) and ocean diffusivity (left) are shown to indicate the most likely rate of temperature change.
