Rainfall downscaling of weekly ensemble forecasts using self-organising maps
References
, , , , , co-authors. Self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon. J. Geophy. Res. Atmos. 2013; 118: 1– 13. , , , , , co-authors. Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over Coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2013; 17: 1455– 1473. . Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and deviation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. J. Clim. 1999; 12: 1506– 1523. , , . Objective identification of nonlinear convectively coupled phases of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: implications for prediction. J. Atmos. Sci. 2008; 65: 1549– 1569. , . Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 2009; 375: 613– 626. , , , . Probabilistic weather prediction with an analog ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2013; 141: 3498– 3516. , , , , , co-authors. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis ‘JRA-55’: an interim report. SOLA. 2011; 7: 149– 152. , , . Classification of ensemble forecasts by means of an artificial neural network. Meteorol. Appl. 1996; 3: 169– 178. , , , , , co-authors. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2010; 14: 951– 964. , , , , , co-authors. Reliability and robustness of rainfall compound distribution model based on weather pattern sub-sampling. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011; 15: 519– 532. , . Forecasting precipitation for hydroelectric power management: how to exploit GCM's seasonal ensemble forecasts. Int. J. Climatol. 2007; 27: 1691– 1705. , , , . Analysis and downscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps. Tellus A. 2005; 57: 435– 447. , . Data mining: Concepts and Techniques. 2000; Morgan-Kaufman, San Francisco. , . Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int. J. Climatol. 2006; 26: 1315– 1337. . The ENSEMBLES Project: providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EGGS Newslett. 2005; 13: 22– 25. , , , , . Comparison of pattern extraction capability between self-organizing maps and principal component analysis. Memoirs of Faculty Engineering. Kyushu Univ. 2009; 69: 37– 47. , , . The characteristics of the torus self organizing map. Proc. Fuzzy. Syst. Symp. 2000; 16: 373– 374. , . The continuum of North Pacific sea level pressure patterns: intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variability. J. Clim. 2010; 23: 851– 867. , . Medium-range multimodel ensemble combination and calibration. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 2009; 135: 777– 794. , . Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. 2003; Wiley, Chichester, 240 pp. , , , , , co-authors. Development of APHROJP, the first Japanese high-resolution daily precipitation product for more than 100 years. Hydrol. Res. Lett. 2010; 4: 60– 64. . Self-organized formation of topologically correct feature maps. Biol. Cybern. 1982; 43: 59– 69. , . The potential for self-organizing maps to identify model error structures. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2014; 142: 1688– 1696. . Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogs. J. Atmos. Sci. 1969; 26: 639– 646. , . Can MCGE outperform the ECMWF ensemble?. SOLA. 2008; 4: 77– 80. - Maraun
, Wetterhall, Ireson, Chandler, Kendon, co-authors. Precipitation downscaling under climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev. Geophys. 2010; 48: 3003. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314. - Ninomiya
, Shibagaki. Multi-scale features of the Meiyu-Baiu front and associated precipitation systems. J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn. 2007; 85B: 103– 122. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85B.103. , , , , , co-authors. Identification of typical synoptic patterns causing heavy rainfall in the rainy season in Japan by a self-organizing map. Atmos. Res. 2007; 83: 185– 200. , , . Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach. Atmos. Res. 2002; 63: 448– 463. , , , , . Anomalous weather patterns in relation to heavy precipitation events in Japan during the Baiu season. J. Hydrometeorology. 2015; 16: 688– 701. , , . TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2008; 134: 2029– 2050. , . Evaluation of IPCC models’ performance in simulating late-twentieth-century climatologies and weather patterns over North America. J. Clim. 2011; 24: 5257– 5274. - Reusch
, Alley, Hewitson. North Atlantic climate variability from a self-organizing map perspective. J. Geophys. Res. 2007; 112: 02104. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007460. , , , . HEPEX, the hydrological ensemble prediction experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2007; 88: 1541– 1547. , . An analogue-based method to downscale surface air temperature: application for Australia. Clim. Dyn. 2001; 17: 947– 963. , . Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Prog. Phys. Geog. 1997; 21: 530– 548. - Yoshikane
, Kimura, Emori. Numerical study on the Baiu front genesis by heating contrast between land and ocean. J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn. 2001; 79: 671– 686. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.79.671. , . The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. J. Clim. 1999; 12: 2474– 2489.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.29293 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 29293 - 29293
Submitted on: Jul 29, 2015
Accepted on: Feb 3, 2016
Published on: Dec 1, 2016
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
© 2016 Masamichi Ohba, Shinji Kadokura, Daisuke Nohara, Yasushi Toyoda, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.