Wintertime cyclone/anticyclone activity over China and its relation to upper tropospheric jets

In this study, the wintertime cyclone/anticyclone activity and its variability over China are examined based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data from 1948 to 2007. The climatology of the source, path and lysis regions for cyclones/anticyclones is investigated using an automatic tracking algorithm. Apparent asymmetries in source, lysis and path regions are observed between cyclones and anticyclones.

The 1948–2007 data exhibit an upward trend in the annual number and a downward trend in the cyclone and anticyclone intensity. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the cyclone transit counts (CTC) for the 1948–2007 period indicates an increase in cyclone activity over northeastern East Asia since the late 1970s that becomes significant in the mid-1980s. The first EOF mode of the anticyclone transit counts (ATC) is a monopole over northern East Asia, centred west of Lake Baikal, which has increased since 1970. The CTC variability dominates the ATC variability, which corresponds well with the storm track variability.

Two distinct variability modes in the upper tropospheric jets over East Asia are also observed. The first mode describes an oscillation in the subtropical jet position; the second mode describes the polar-front jet strength variation. Moreover, the second mode is closely linked to the cyclone/anticyclone activity variability.