Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea

Andreia Ribeiro; Susana M. Barbosa; Manuel G. Scotto; Reik V. Donner

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.20921

Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea

Tellus

Volume 66 (2014): Issue 1

By: Andreia Ribeiro, Susana M. Barbosa, Manuel G. Scotto and Reik V. Donner

Open Access

|Dec 2014

Abstract

In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations.

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.20921 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 20921 - 20921

Submitted on: Mar 22, 2013

Accepted on: Mar 18, 2014

Published on: Dec 1, 2014

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

© 2014 Andreia Ribeiro, Susana M. Barbosa, Manuel G. Scotto, Reik V. Donner, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 66 (2014): Issue 1