Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Perturbing the potential vorticity field in mesoscale forecasts of two Mediterranean heavy precipitation events Cover

Perturbing the potential vorticity field in mesoscale forecasts of two Mediterranean heavy precipitation events

Open Access
|Dec 2012

References

  1. Arbogast, P, Maynard, K and Piriou, C. 2012. About the reliability of manual model PV corrections to improve forecasts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. OI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  2. Argence, S, Lambert, D, Richard, E, Chaboureau, J.-P, Arbogast, P and co author. 2009. Improving the numerical prediction of a cyclone in the Mediterranean by local potential vorticity modifications. Tellus. 135, 865879. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  3. Charney J. G. The use of primitive equation of motion in numerical prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 1955; 7: 2226. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  4. Dermitas M. Thorpe A. Sensitivity of short-range weather forecasts to local potential vorticity modifications. J. Atmos. Sci. 1999; 127: 922939.
  5. Dudhia J. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. 1989; 46: 30773107.
  6. Dudhia, J. 1996. A multi-layer soil temperature model for mm5. Preprints from the Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users’ Workshop 22–24. Online at: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/lsm/soil.pdf.
  7. Garcies, L and Homar, V. 2009. Ensemble sensitivities of the real atmosphere: application to Mediterranean intense cyclones. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 61, 394406. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  8. Guérin R. Desroziers G. Arbogast P. 4D-Var analysis of potential vorticity pseudo-observations. Meteor. Appl. 2006; 132: 12831298. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  9. Hello G. Arbogast P. Two different methods to correct the initial conditions applied to the storm of 27 December 1999 over southern France. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2004; 11: 5157. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  10. Homar V. Romero R. Stensrud D. J. Ramis C. Alonso S. Numerical diagnosis of a small, quasi-tropical cyclone over the Western Mediterranean: dynamical vs. boundary factors. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2003; 129: 14691490. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  11. Homar V. Stensrud D. J. Sensitivities of an intense Mediterranean cyclone: analysis and validation. Weather Forecast. 2004; 130: 25192540. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  12. Homar, V, Stensrud, D. J, Levit, J. J and Bright, D. R. 2006. Value of human-generated perturbations in short-range ensemble forecasts of severe weather. Mon. Weather Rev. 21, 347. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  13. Hong S.-Y. Pan H.-L. Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 1996; 124: 23222339.
  14. Hoskins B. J. McIntyre M. E. Robertson A. W. On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Mon. Weather Rev. 1985; 111(470): 877946. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  15. Houtekamer P. L. Lefaivre L. Derome J. Ritcie H. Mitchell H. L. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Weather Rev. 1996; 124: 12251242.
  16. Huo Z. Zhang D.-L. Gyakum J. Interaction of potential vorticity anomalies in extratropical cyclogenesis. Part I: static piecewise inversion. J. Appl. Meteor. 1999; 127: 25462560.
  17. Kain J. S. The Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization: an update. Atmos. Sci. 2004; 43: 170181.
  18. Lorenz E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 1963; 20: 130141.
  19. Manders A. Verkley W. Diepeveen J. Moene A. Application of a potential vorticity inversion method to a case of rapid cyclogenesis over the Atlantic Ocean. Mon. Weather Rev. 2007; 133: 17551770. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  20. Martín, A, Romero, R, Homar, V, De Luque, A, Alonso, S., and co authors. 2007. Sensitivities of a flash flood event over Catalonia: a numerical analysis. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 135, 651669. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  21. Mason I. A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 1982; 30: 291203.
  22. Meng Z. Zhang F. Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation. Part II: imperfect model experiments. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2007; 135: 14031423. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  23. Nuissier O. Ducroq V. Ricard D. Lebeaupin C. Anquetin S. A numerical study of three catastrophic events over Southern France. Part I: numerical framework and synoptic ingredients. Mon. Weather Rev. 2007; 134: 11130.
  24. Nutter, P. A, Mullen, S. L and Baumhefner, D. P. 1998. The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of blocking. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 126, 24822502. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  25. Rabier, F, Klinker, E, Courtier, P and Hollingsworth, A. 1996. Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 122, 121150. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  26. Reisner, J, Rasmussen, R and Bruintjes, R. 1998. Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the mm5 mesoscale model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 124, 10711107. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  27. Romero R. Sensitivity of a heavy rain producing Western Mediterranean cyclone to embedded potential vorticity anomalies. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2001; 127: 25592597. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  28. Romero R. A method for quantifying the impacts and interactions of potential-vorticity anomalies in extratropical cyclones. Mon. Weather Rev. 2008; 134: 385402. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  29. Romero R. Doswell III C. A. Ramis C. Mesoscale numerical study of two cases of long-lived quasistationary convective systems over eastern Spain. Nat. Haz. and Earth. Syst. Sci. 2000; 128: 37313751.
  30. Romero, R, Martín, A, Homar, V, Alonso, S and Ramis, C. 2005. Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies. Adv. Geosci. 5, 505525. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  31. Romero R. Martín A. Homar V. Alonso S. Ramis C. Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 2006; 7: 5563. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  32. Røsting B. Kristjánson J. Improving simulations of severe winter storms by initial modification of potential vorticity in sensitive regions. Tellus. 2006; 132: 26252652. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  33. Røsting B. Kristjánson J. A successful resimulation of the 7–8 January 2005 winter storm through initial potential vorticity modification in sensitive regions. 2008; 60A: 604619.
  34. Santurette, P and Georgiev, C. G. 2005. Weather analysis and forecasting: applying satellite water vapor imagery and potential vorticity analysis. Academic Press: London200 pp., ISBN: 9780126192629.
  35. Santurette P. Joly A. ANASYG/PRESYG, Météo-France's new graphical summary of the synoptic situation. Mon. Weather Rev. 2002; 9: 129154. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  36. Stensrud D. Brooks H. Du J. Tracton M. Rogers E. Using ensembles for short-range forecasting. Weather Forecast. 1999; 127: 433446.
  37. Stensrud D. Yussouf N. Reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecasting system. J. Geophys. Res. 2007; 22: 317. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  38. Taylor K. E. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. Bound-Lay Meteorol. 2001; 106: 71837192. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  39. Troen I. Mahrt L. A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer: sensitivity to surface evaporation. Atmos. Res. 1986; 37: 129148. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  40. Vich M. Romero R. Brooks H. E. Ensemble prediction of Mediterranean high-impact events using potential vorticity perturbations. Part I: comparison against the multiphysics approach. Atmos. Res. 2011a; 102: 227241. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  41. Vich, M, Romero, R and Homar, V. 2011b. Ensemble prediction of Mediterranean high-impact events using potential vorticity perturbations. Part II: adjoint-derived sensitivity zones. 102, 311319. DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17224.
  42. Wilks, D. S. 1995. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences: an introduction. In: International Geophysics Series. (ed. D. S. Wilks) Vol. 59, Academic Press: London467 pp., ISBN: 0127519653.
Language: English
Page range: 17224 - 17224
Submitted on: Jan 18, 2012
Accepted on: Jul 9, 2012
Published on: Dec 1, 2012
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2012 Maria-Del-Mar Vich, Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard, Philippe Arbogast, Karine Maynard, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.