Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations Cover

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Open Access
|Dec 2012

References

  1. Bender, M. A, Knutson, T. R, Tuleya, R. E, Sirutis, J. J, Vecchi, G. A and co-authors. 2010. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science. 48, 5773.
  2. Bengtsson L. Botzet M. Esch M. Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?. Tellus A. 1996; 48: 5773.
  3. Bengtsson L. Hodges K. Esch M. Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analyses. Tellus. 2007a; 59(4): 396416.
  4. Bengtsson, L, Hodges, K, Esch, M, Keenlyside, N, Kornblueh, L. co-authors. 2007b. How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?. Tellus A. 59(4), 539561.
  5. Blender R. Fraedrich K. Lunkeit F. Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 1997; 123: 727741.
  6. Dunion J. P. Velden C. S. The impact of the Saharan air layer on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 2004; 85: 353365.
  7. Emanuel K. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature. 2005; 436(7051): 686688.
  8. Emanuel K. Climate and tropical cyclone activity: a new model downscaling approach. J Climate. 2006; 19: 47974802.
  9. Emanuel K. Ravela S. Vivant E. Risi C. A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 2006; 87: 299314.
  10. Emanuel K. Sundararajan R. Williams J. Hurricanes and global warming – results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 2008; 89: 347367.
  11. Frank W. Ritchie E. Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2001; 129(9): 22492269.
  12. Gray, W. M. 1979. Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the general circulation. In: Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans. (ed. D. B. Shaw). Royal Meteorological Society. 155218.
  13. Gutowski, W. J, Hegerl, G. C, Holland, G. J, Knutson, T. R, Mearns, L. O. co-authors. 2008. Causes of observed changes in extremes and projections of future changes. In: CCSP 3.3 Report 725 ‘Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate’. (eds. T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple, and W. L. Murray), Global Change Research Information Office:: WashingtonDC, 80116.
  14. Holland G. J. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1980; 108: 12121218.
  15. Holland G. J. The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci. 1997; 54(21): 25192541.
  16. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. CambridgeUK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change, 881pp.
  17. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (S. Solomon, et al.), Cambridge University Press: New York
  18. Kerr R. A. Models forsee more-intense hurricanes in the Greenhouse. Science. 2010; 327: 399.
  19. Kleppek, S, Muccione, V, Raible, C. C, Bresch, D, Koellner-Heck, P. co-authors. 2008. Tropical cyclones in ERA-40: a detection and tracking method. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35(10), L10705 (5 pp.)
  20. Knutson, T. R, McBride, J. L, Chan, J, Emanuel, K, Holland, G. co-authors. 2010. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci. 3(3), 157163.
  21. Kossin J. P. Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008; 35(23): L23705.
  22. Landsea C. W. A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes. Mon. Weather Rev. 1993; 121(6): 17031713.
  23. Landsea C. W. Vecchi G. A. Bengtsson L. Knutson T. R. Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. J. Climate. 2010; 23(10): 25082519.
  24. Mizuta, R, Oouchi, K, Yoshimura, H, Noda, A, Katayama, K. co-authors. 2006. 20-km-Mesh global climate simulations using JMA-GSM model – mean climate states. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 84(1), 165185.
  25. Murakami H. Wang B. Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: projection by a 20-km-Mesh global atmospheric model. J. Climate. 2010; 23(10): 26992721.
  26. Murakami H. Wang B. Kitoh A. Future change of western North Pacific typhoons: projection by a 20-km-Mesh global atmospheric model. J. Climate. 2011; 24: 11541169.
  27. Oouchi, K, Yoshimura, J, Yoshimura, H, Mizuta, R, Kusunoki, S. co-authors. 2006. Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: frequency and wind intensity analyses. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 84(2), 259276.
  28. Pielke R. Landsea C. La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 1999; 80(10): 20272033.
  29. Raible, C. C. 2007. On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07703. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15672.
  30. Raible, C. C and Blender R. 2004. Midlatitude cyclonic variability in GCM-simulations with different ocean representations. Clim. Dyn. 20. 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15672.
  31. Rayner, N, Brohan, P, Parker, D, Folland, C, Kennedy, J. co-authors. 2006. Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ sice the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate. 19(3), 446469.
  32. Roeckner, E, Bäuml, G, Bonaventura, L, Brokopf, R, Esch, M. co-authors. 2003. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5: part I: model description. Technical Report 349, Max-Planck-Institut, Hamburg, Germany
  33. Schwierz, C, Köllner-Heck, P, Zenklusen, E, Bresch, D. N, Vidale, P. co-authors. 2010. Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate. Clim. Change. 101, 485514.
  34. Sriver R. Huber M. Low frequency variability in globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33(11): L11705.
  35. Sugi M. Noda A. Sato N. Influence of the global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: an experiment with the JMA global model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 2002; 80(2): 249272.
  36. Vecchi G. A. Soden B. J. Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature. 2007; 450: 10661070.
  37. Vickery P. J. Wadhera D. Powell D. Chen Y. Z. A hurricane boundary layer and wind field model for use in engineering applications. J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. 2009; 48: 381405.
  38. Webster P. Holland G. Curry J. Chang H. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science. 2005; 309(5742): 18441846.
  39. Yoshimura J. Sugi M. Noda A. Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 2006; 84(2): 405428.
Language: English
Page range: 15672 - 15672
Submitted on: Mar 29, 2011
Accepted on: Nov 28, 2011
Published on: Dec 1, 2012
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2012 Christoph C. Raible, Sabine Kleppek, Marc Wüest, David N. Bresch, Akio Kitoh, Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas F. Stocker, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.