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School Grades and Neighbourhoods – A Natural Experiment Cover

School Grades and Neighbourhoods – A Natural Experiment

Open Access
|Oct 2025

Figures & Tables

Table 1

Summary statistics with grade point average scores and neighbourhood socioeconomic status deciles.

SUBJECTS. IE, CHILDREN: N = 20,578 OBS
Initial NSES, mean (SD)−1.27 (1.91)
Grades from the norm‑referenced grading system, mean (SD)2.95 (0.77)
Completed within the norm‑ref. system7,713 (37.5%)
Grades from the criterion‑referenced grading system, mean (SD)188.35 (67.69)
Completed within the criterion‑ref. systemN = 12,865 (62.5%)
Standardised GPA, mean (SD)−0.25 (1.04)
Unique families10 419
Number of siblings, mean (SD)2.85 (1.55)
MaleN = 10,971 (52.57%)
FirstbornN = 7,208 (34.54%)
Year of birth, mean (SD)1,982 (3.89)
Year of immigration, mean (SD)1,988 (1.76)
Age at immigration. mean (SD)6.23 (3.59)
DECILEINITIAL NSES MEAN (MIN, MAX)STANDARDIZED GPA (1988–2018)GRADES FROM NORM‑REFERENCED GRADING SYSTEM (1988–1997)GRADES FROM CRITERION‑REFERENCED GRADING SYSTEM (1998–CURRENT)
11.21 (2.75, 0.66)−0.172.98192.8
20.37 (0.66, 0.14)−0.252.95187.6
3−0.07 (0.14, −0.28)−0.222.98189.6
4−0.48 (−0.28, −0.66)−0.252.98187.9
5−0.86 (−0.66, −1.07)−0.282.92188.2
6−1.31 (−1.07, −1.59)−0.212.97190.4
7−1.89 (−1.59, −2.29)−0.242.92190.4
8−2.75 (−2.29, −3.26)−0.252.96190.1
9−3.94 (−3.27, −4.70)−0.253.02186.3
10−6.41 (−4.72, −12.85)−0.462.76172.6

[i] Notes: Standardized GPA scores ranged from a minimum of −3.42 points to a maximum of 2.57 points and on a scale of 0–5 points within a norm‑referenced grading system and from 0–320 points within the criterion‑referenced grading system, respectively.

Figure 1

Relationship between neighbourhood socioeconomic status and grade point average scores.

Notes: The graph is a visual representation of the relationship between initial NSES and GPA‑scores. The β1 coefficient is estimated at 0.016. Bin scatter groups the NSES variable into equal‑sized bins, computes the mean of each NSES and GPA‑scores variable within each bin, then create a scatterplot of these data points. It also plots a fitted line based on the underlying data. In the regression models, we controlled for parents’ country of origin, as well as parents’ year of arrival and child’s sex and year of graduation as fixed effects.

Table 2

Full regression of the main analysis: Neighbourhood socioeconomic status and grade point average scores.

MODEL 1MODEL 2MODEL 3MODEL 4
NSES

0.016***

[0.009, 0.023]

0.015***

[0.008, 0.023]

0.016***

[0.009, 0.023]

0.015***

[0.008, 0.022]

Sex

0.314***

[0.288, 0.341]

0.308***

[0.281, 0.335]

0.308***

[0.282, 0.335]

Child’s age at immigration

−0.221***

[−0.195, −0.246]

−0.222***

[−0.196, −0.247]

Mother’s age at immigration

0.009***

[0.005, 0.013]

Father’s age at immigration

0.011***

[0.006, 0.015]

Observations20 55520 55520 55520 555

[i] Notes: In the regression models, we controlled for parents’ country of origin, as well as the parents’ year of arrival and child’s sex and year of graduation as fixed effects.

Table 3

Neighbourhood socioeconomic status and grade point average scores, stratified by sex.

BOYSGIRLS
NSES

0.011**

[0.002, 0.021]

0.020***

[0.010, 0.030]

Child’s age at migration

−0.182***

[−0.218, −0.147]

−0.264***

[−0.302, −0.227]

Mother’s age at migration

0.009***

[0.003, 0.015]

0.009***

[0.003, 0.015]

Father’s age at migration

0.010***

[0.004, 0.016]

0.011***

[0.005, 0.017]

Observations10,7919,764
Table 4

Neighbourhood socioeconomic status and grade point average scores, stratified by age at migration.

0–2 YEARS3–6 YEARS7–12 YEARS13+ YEARS
NSES

0.011

[−0.006, 0.029]

0.015***

[0.004, 0.026]

0.018***

[0.006, 0.029]

0.014

[−0.013, 0.041]

Sex

0.302***

[0.231, 0.372]

0.300***

[0.259, 0.342]

0.321***

[0.278, 0.364]

0.251***

[0.147, 0.356]

Children age at migration

–0.445***

[–0.556, −0.33]

–0.457***

[–0.521, −0.393]

–0.239***

[–0.282, −0.196]

–0.080*

[–0.171, 0.011]

Mothers age at migration

0.002

[–0.007, 0.011]

0.012***

[0.005, 0.018]

0.010***

[0.003, 0.018]

0.026**

[0.004, 0.047]

Fathers age at migration

0.011**

[0.002, 0.021]

0.004

[–0.002, 0.010]

0.018***

[0.010, 0.026]

0.030**

[0.005, 0.055]

Observations3236857274441298
Table 5

Neighbourhood socioeconomic status and long‑term outcomes at ages 25 and 30 years.

PERCENTILE RANKED INCOMENUMBER OF UNEMPLOYMENT DAYSPROBABILITY OF HAVING A COLLEGE DEGREE
Outcome at 25 years
Initial NSES

0.305*

[0.039, 0.572]

−0.744*

[−1.363, −0.125]

0.017*

[0.002, 0.031]

ControlsYesYesYes
Observations12,40912,4248,883
Outcome at 30 years
Initial NSES

0.462***

[0.127, 0.797]

−1.332***

[−2.179, −0.485]

0.026***

[0.009, 0.043]

ControlsYesYesYes
Observations8,2288,2456,819

[i] Notes: Clustered robust standard errors in parentheses. Confidence intervals are reported in square brackets. The regression models are controlled for parents’ country of origin, parents’ year of arrival, sex and year of graduation. ***p < 0.001, *p < 0.05. NSES = neighbourhood socioeconomic status.

Figure 2

Marginal grade point average scores and neighbourhood socioeconomic status by foreign background.

Notes: The figure shows the marginal changes in GPA‑scores. Quantiles of GPA is shown on the x‑axis, and marginal change in GPA‑scores on the y‑axis. The solid blue line represents relationships and dots point estimates with corresponding 95% CI at each quantile. A refence line at zeros is added to show which coefficients are significantly different from zero. We controlled for parents’ country of origin, as well as parents’ year of arrival and child’s sex and year of graduation as fixed effects.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33134/njmr.878 | Journal eISSN: 1799-649X
Language: English
Page range: 9 - 9
Submitted on: May 5, 2024
Accepted on: Jul 7, 2025
Published on: Oct 29, 2025
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2025 Wazah Pello-Esso, Ulf Gerdtham, Sara Larsson Lönn, Jan Sundquist, Kristina Sundquist, published by Helsinki University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.