Hawks in The High North: The emerging Nordic cluster in NATO

How have Nordic states adapted their allied postures following Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine and fears of U.S. retrenchment from Europe? This paper analyses a Nordic transformation from dovish origins towards more hawkish postures. We argue that shifting elite–public alignment is a potent driver of policy change in states with a tradition of consensus in foreign and security policy. Drawing on elite interviews, shifts in public opinion, and speech evidence from Nordic decision-makers, we examine how Nordic countries have adapted their allied postures. Our findings offer new insights about allied posture transformation, the domestic drivers of nuclear choices, and intra-protégé dynamics. We find strong support for our argument that elite–public alignment is a key driver of Nordic posture adjustments following external security shocks. We also identify a “contagion effect,” whereby surges in popular demand for allied protection spill over into neighbouring states.