Nuclear Matryoshka: Russia’s Nuclear Deployment to Belarus

In 2021, Russia announced its intention to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus. While the presence of nuclear delivery vehicles is confirmed, it remains unclear whether nuclear warheads followed. Scholars have debated the motivations behind the deployments, often relying on conceptual frameworks and deriving plausible explanations from historical evidence. Yet, the existing work has paid less attention to the empirical limitations of this case. This article adopts a different approach. Given the absence of high-quality data such as archival records, memoirs, or original interviews, we employ congruence analysis to systematically compare observable evidence to competing theoretical explanations. While this method does not establish causality, it enables an evaluation of the relative plausibility of each motive. Drawing on an original dataset, first used in this article, of official statements related to the deployment of nuclear weaponry to Belarus, we find strong alignment with the extended deterrence motive, as both states frequently highlight the protection of Belarus as justifications. We also find considerable support for power projection, supported by statements embedding the deployments in the greater conflict between Russia and NATO. By contrast, the assurance motive receives less empirical backing. These findings carry important policy implications, as each theoretical rationale suggests a different response from NATO.