The Moderating Role of ICT in Climate-Induced Food Insecurity: Evidence from Pakistan

Faiza Azhar Khan; Qurban Tabassum; Saira Tufail

doi:10.30858/zer/211830

.blurhash-client-img { display: none !important; }

The Moderating Role of ICT in Climate-Induced Food Insecurity: Evidence from Pakistan

Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej

Volume 386 (2026): Issue 1 (March 2026)

By: Faiza Azhar Khan , Qurban Tabassum and Saira Tufail

Open Access

|Mar 2026

Abstract

Aim

Meteorological factors pose a significant threat to food security through disruptions in food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Extreme temperatures, erratic precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events adversely affect agricultural productivity, fisheries, and livestock, exacerbating inequalities in food access. This study examines the impact of meteorological factors on food security in Pakistan using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and investigates how household-level adoption of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) mitigates these effects across different climatic zones.

Material and methods

Using district-level climatic data from NASA Power and household-level ICT adoption indicators sourced from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement 2019–2020 survey, the study examines the impact of climate factors on food security and examines the moderating effect of ICT. The estimation is done at the national and climatic zones utilizing linear (OLS) and quantile regression. Moreover, the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors are calculated, and the moderating role of ICT is computed.

Results

The findings reveal that all four meteorological variables negatively and significantly affect household food security. Among these, wind speed and precipitation exert the strongest adverse effects, particularly in tropical zones. The results also confirm regional heterogeneity, with the tropical zone being the most vulnerable. The quantile regression shows that the mitigation through ICT is most effective for households with a low level of food security.

Conclusions

The findings of the study emphasize the need for ICT-driven policy interventions tailored to regional climate dynamics, positioning digitalization as important but not the only climate-resilient strategy for food security.

References

Ahmed, M., Asim, M., Ahmad, S., & Aslam, M. (2023). Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Food Security. In: M. Ahmed (Ed.), Global Agricultural Production: Resilience to Climate Change (pp. 31–72). Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14973-3_2
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Akbar, M., Niaz, R., & Amjad, M. (2020). Determinants of Households' Food Insecurity with Severity Dimensions in Pakistan: Varying Estimates Using Partial Proportional Odds Model. Health & Social Care in the Community, 28(5), 1698–1709. https://doi.org/10.1111/hsc.12995
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ali, A., & Erenstein, O. (2017). Assessing Farmer Use of Climate Change Adaptation Practices and Impacts on Food Security and Poverty in Pakistan. Climate Risk Management, 16, 183–194. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.001
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ali, S., Liu, Y., Ishaq, M., Shah, T., Abdullah, I.A., & Din, I.U. (2017). Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan. Foods, 6(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/foods6060039
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Alvi, S., & Jamil, F. (2018). Impact of Climate Change and Technology Adoption on Cereal Yields in South Asian Countries. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 7(3). https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2018.v7n3p237
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Alvi, S., Jamil, F., Roson, R., & Sartori, M. (2020). Do farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective. Agriculture, 10(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10060212
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Alvi, S., Roson, R., Sartori, M., & Jamil, F. (2021). An Integrated Assessment Model for Food Security under Climate Change for South Asia. Heliyon, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06707
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Amjad, A.I. (2023). Implications of Climate Change on Agriculture Sector of Pakistan. Journal of Public Policy Practitioners, 2(1), 98–125. https://doi.org/10.32350/jppp.21.04
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Andarge, L.T. (2022). Assessing Impact of Climate Variability on Food Security Using Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS): Case Study from Mirababaya Woreda Gamo Zone Ethiopia. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, 13, 633.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Anser, M.K., Osabohien, R., Olonade, O., Karakara, A.A., Olalekan, I.B., Ashraf, J., & Igbinoba, A. (2021). Impact of ICT Adoption and Governance Interaction on Food Security in West Africa. Sustainability, 13(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13105570
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Anwar, A., Ayyubi, M.S., Riaz, F., & Mustafa, G. (2024). Regional Disparities in Food Security: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan's Provinces and Region. The Journal of Research Review, 1(4), 502–511. https://thejrr.com/index.php/39/article/view/69
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Asfaw, A., Simane, B., Bantider, A., & Hassen, A. (2019). Determinants in the Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies: Evidence from Rainfed-Dependent Smallholder Farmers in North-Central Ethiopia (Woleka Sub-Basin). Environment, Development and Sustainability, 21, 2535–2565. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0150-y
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ayinu, Y.T., Ayal, D.Y., Zeleke, T.T., & Beketie, K.T. (2022). Impact of Climate Variability on Household Food Security in Godere District, Gambella Region, Ethiopia. Climate Services, 27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100307
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Balasundram, S.K., Shamshiri, R.R., Sridhara, S., & Rizan, N. (2023). The Role of Digital Agriculture in Mitigating Climate Change and Ensuring Food Security: An Overview. Sustainability, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065325
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Beverly, M., & Neill, C.L. (2022). Differences in Food Insecurity across the Rural/Urban Spectrum – The Role of Trade Flows. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 1(1), 93–107. https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.11
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S., & Herrero, M. (2013). Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya: Household Strategies and Determinants. Journal of Environmental Management, 114, 26–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.036
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Bublitz, M.G., Peracchio, L.A., Dadzie, C.A., Escalas, J.E., Hansen, J., Hutton, M., Nardini, G., Absher, C., & Tangari, A.H. (2019). Food Access for All: Empowering Innovative Local Infrastructure. Journal of Business Research, 100, 354–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2018.12.027
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Challinor, A.J., Watson, J., Lobell, D.B., Howden, S.M., Smith, D.R., & Chhetri, N. (2014). A Meta-Analysis of Crop Yield under Climate Change and Adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4(4), 287–291. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Chandio, A.A., Jiang, Y., Amin, A., Ahmad, M., Akram, W., & Ahmad, F. (2023). Climate Change and Food Security of South Asia: Fresh Evidence from a Policy Perspective Using Novel Empirical Analysis. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 66(1), 169–190. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2021.1980378
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Diyaol, M. (2025). Revolutionizing Smallholder Agriculture with AI: Intelligent Sensor Networks for Real-Time Climate. American Journal of Agriculture, 7(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.47672/aja.2592
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ejemeyovwi, J.O., Osabohien, R., Adeleye, B.N., & De Alwis, T. (2021). Household ICT Utilization and Food Security Nexus in Nigeria. International Journal of Food Science, 5551363. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5551363
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ferdinand, T., Illick-Frank, E., Postema, L., Stephenson, J., Rose, A., Petrovic, D., Migisha, C., Fara, K., Zebiak, S., Siantonas, T., & Pavese, N. (2021). A Blueprint for Digital Climate-Informed Advisory Services: Building the Resilience of 300 Million Small-Scale Producers by 2030. Working Paper (vol. 20). https://doi.org/10.46830/wriwp.20.00103
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ferguson, R., Mishra, S., Qureshi, S., Injac, L., Talukder, B., & Orbinski, J. (2024). Digital Technologies and Food Security During Crisis: COVID-19 Experiences from Smallholder Farmers in Odisha, India. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1150197
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gouvea, R., Kapelianis, D., Li, S., & Terra, B. (2022). Innovation, ICT & Food Security. Global Food Security, 35, 100653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100653
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hasan, A., & Hussain, Z. (2020). Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security. Research Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 11(1), 91–96. https://doi.org/10.5958/2321-5828.2020.00016.9
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hendriks, S.L. (2015). The Food Security Continuum: A Novel Tool for Understanding Food Insecurity as a Range of Experiences. Food Security, 7, 609–619. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0457-6
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hijriyati, Y., Saputri, A.R., Erlyn, P., Murti, N.N., & Maulina, R. (2024). The Role of Information and Communication Technology in Increasing Awareness and Practice of Healthy Nutrition in the Community. Miracle Get Journal, 1(4), 7–15. http://doi.org/10.69855/mgj.v1i4.70
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hudson, H.E., Leclair, M., Pelletier, B., & Sullivan, B. (2017). Using Radio and Interactive ICTs to Improve Food Security among Smallholder Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Telecommunications Policy, 41(7–8), 670–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2017.05.010
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Iqbal, M.S., Dahri, Z.H., Querner, E.P., Khan, A., & Hofstra, N. (2018). Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity in the Kabul River Basin. Geosciences, 8(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040114
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ishaq, A., Khalid, M., & Ahmad, E. (2018). Food Insecurity in Pakistan: A Region-Wise Analysis of Trends. Working Papers, 157 (pp. 1–26). Pakistan Insitute of Development Economics (PIDE). http://www.pide.org.pk/
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Katre, A., & Raddatz, B. (2024). Low-Income Families' Direct Participation in Food-systems Innovation to Promote Healthy Food Behaviors. Nutrients, 15(5), 1271. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15051271
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Leng, X., Zhang, Y., & Cheng, R. (2024). Digital Technology, Labor Allocation, and Nutrition Intake: Evidence from China. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 201, 123228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123228
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Li, X., & Huo, X. (2025). Impact of ICT Adoption on Household Consumption: Evidence From Apple Growers in China. Electronic Commerce Research, 25(4), 2673–2697. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10660-023-09763-9
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Lutomia, C.K., Obare, G.A., Kariuki, I.M., & Muricho, G.S. (2019). Determinants of Gender Differences in Household Food Security Perceptions in the Western and Eastern Regions of Kenya. Cogent Food & Agriculture, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2019.1694755
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mahmood, T., Kumar, R., Ali, T.M., Naeem, N., & Pongpanich, S. (2023). Determinants of the Food Insecurity at Household Level in Pakistan: A Multilevel Model Approach. PLOS One, 18(10), e0291343. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291343
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mahrous, W. (2019). Climate Change and Food Security in EAC Region: A Panel Data Analysis. Review of Economics and Political Science, 4(4), 270–284. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-12-2018-0039
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mbow, C., Toensmeier, E., Brandt, M., Skole, D., Dieng, M., Garrity, D., & Poulter, B. (2020). Agroforestry as a Solution for Multiple Climate Change Challenges in Africa. In: D. Deryng (Ed.), Climate Change and Agriculture (pp. 339–374). Burleigh Dodds Science Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003047704
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mekonnen, A., Tessema, A., Ganewo, Z., & Haile, A. (2021). Climate Change Impacts on Household Food Security and Farmers Adaptation Strategies. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2021.100197
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Muluneh, M.G. (2021). Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Food Security: A Global Perspective – A Review Article. Agriculture & Food Security, 10(1), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-021-00318-5
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Myers, S.S., Smith, M.R., Guth, S., Golden, C.D., Vaitla, B., Mueller, N.D., Dangour, A.D., & Huybers, P. (2017). Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition. Annual Review Public Health, 38, 259–277. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Nakasone, E., & Torero, M. (2016). A Text Message Away: ICTs as a Tool to Improve Food Security. Agricultural Economics, 47(S1), 49–59. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12314
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Okoli, J.N., & Ifeakor, A.C. (2014). An Overview of Climate Change and Food Security: Adaptation Strategies and Mitigation Measures in Nigeria. Journal of Education and Practice, 5(32), 13–19.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Olayemi, A.O. (2012). Effects of Family Size on Household Food Security in Osun State, Nigeria. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2(2), 136–141. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.197951
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Oparinde, L.O. (2023). ICTs Use, Agroforestry Technologies' Adoption and Crop Farmers' Welfare: An Empirical Evidence from Southwest, Nigeria. AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 15(4), 79–95. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.348956
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Parveen, A., Tufail, S., & Salman, V. (2024). Impact of Demographic Vulnerabilities and Socio-Economic Resilience on Food Insecurity in Pakistan. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 59(4), 1054–1077. https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096221130349
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Picho, E.O., Namubiru, M., & Ngaka, W. (2018). The Effect of ICT on Households' Food Security in Uganda. Evidence from Acholi Sub Region in Northern Uganda. International Journal of Technology and Management, 3(1). http://jotm.utamu.ac.ug/
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Poudel, S., Funakawa, S., Shinjo, H., & Mishra, B. (2020). Understanding Households' Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Lamjung District of Nepal. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 22(8), 8159–8182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00566-3
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sarker, M.N.I., Yang, B., Yang, L., Huq, M.E., & Kamruzzaman, M.M. (2020). Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience through Big Data. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 11(3). http://www.ijacsa.thesai.org/
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sekabira, H., Tepa-Yotto, G.T., Ahouandjinou, A.R., Thunes, K.H., Pittendrigh, B., Kaweesa, Y., & Tamò, M. (2023). Are Digital Services the Right Solution for Empowering Smallholder Farmers? A Perspective Enlightened by COVID-19 Experiences to Inform Smart IPM. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.983063
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shahzad, N., & Amjad, M. (2022). Climate Change and Food Security in Pakistan. In: W.L. Filho, M. Kovaleva, E. Popkova (Eds.), Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security (pp. 579–594). Springer Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98617-9_33
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Shifat, Z.F., Alam, M.J., Begum, I.A., Iqbal, M.A., Sarma, P.K., & McKenzie, A.M. (2025). The Association between Household's Asset Ownership and Food Security: Panel Data Evidence from Bangladesh. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1479410
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Singh, A.K. (2018). Influence of Climate and Non-Climatic Factors on Global Food Security Index: A Cross-Sectional Country-Wise Analysis. SOCIALSCI Journal, 1(1), 22–35. https://purkh.com
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sivakumar, M.V. (2020). Climate Extremes and Impacts on Agriculture. Agroclimatology: Linking Agriculture to Climate, 60, 621–647. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronmonogr60.2016.0003
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Thornton, P.K., Ericksen, P.J., Herrero, M., & Challinor, A.J. (2014). Climate Variability and Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Review. Global Change Biology, 20(11), 3313–3328. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12581
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ullah, R.M., Mao, J., & Nasrullah, M. (2024). Climate Change Awareness and Adoption Measurements of Respondents toward Food Security in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(9), 4699–4712. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.275
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Vermeulen, S.J., Campbell, B.M., & Ingram, J.S. (2012). Climate Change and Food Systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37(1), 195–222. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Wheeler, T., & von Braun, J. (2013). Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security. Science, 341(6145), 508–513. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yan, S., & Alvi, S. (2022). Food Security in South Asia under Climate Change and Economic Policies. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 14(3), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0113
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30858/zer/211830 | Journal eISSN: 2392-3458 | Journal ISSN: 0044-1600

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 102 - 137

Submitted on: Apr 30, 2025

Accepted on: Oct 8, 2025

Published on: Mar 27, 2026

Published by: The Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

Keywords:

heating degree days,

cooling degree days,

direct and indirect impact,

digitalization

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Agribusiness, food industry

© 2026 Faiza Azhar Khan, Qurban Tabassum, Saira Tufail, published by The Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 386 (2026): Issue 1 (March 2026)