Figure 1.
Winning rate (%) of candidates running for the UNSC seat in contested and ‘clean slate’ elections: first-time candidates and repeat candidates (all regional groups; 1991–2025).
Figure 2.
Winning rate (%) of candidates running for the UNSC seat in contested elections: first-time candidates and repeat candidates (regional groups; 1991–2025). EEG, Eastern European Group; GRULAC, Latin American and Caribbean Group; WEOG, Western European and Others Group.
Table 1.
Success rate of countries running for a seat on the UNSC for the first time (1991–2025)
| Variable | Estimate | Std. error | p-value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First time | +0.337 | 0.144 | 0.025 | Statistically significant positive effect for first-time candidates at the 5% level |
| Contested | −0.391 | 0.145 | 0.011 | Statistically significant negative effect for contested elections at the 5% level |
| First time × Contested | −0.496 | 0.149 | 0.002 | Statistically significant negative interaction effect at the 1% level |
APPENDIX I.
Dataset of UNSC election parameters (1991–2025).
| Year | Country | First time (1/0) | Elected (1/0) | Contested election (1/0) | Regional group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | Cabo Verde | 1 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 1991 | Japan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1991 | Venezuela | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1991 | Hungary | 0 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 1991 | Morocco | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1992 | Djibouti | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1992 | Pakistan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1992 | Brazil | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1992 | Spain | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1992 | New Zealand | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1992 | Sweden | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1993 | Rwanda | 1 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 1993 | Oman | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1993 | Czech Republic | 1 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1993 | Nigeria | 0 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 1993 | Guinea-Bissau | 1 | 0 | 1 | Africa |
| 1993 | Argentina | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1993 | Belarus | 1 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 1994 | Botswana | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1994 | Indonesia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1994 | Honduras | 1 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1994 | Italy | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 1994 | Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 1995 | Republic of Korea | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1995 | Egypt | 0 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 1995 | Guinea-Bissau | 0 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 1995 | Benin | 0 | 0 | 1 | Africa |
| 1995 | Chile | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1995 | Poland | 0 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 1995 | Albania | 1 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 1996 | Kenya | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1996 | Japan | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1996 | India | 0 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1996 | Costa Rica | 0 | 1 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 1996 | Bolivia | 0 | 0 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 1996 | Sweden | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1996 | Portugal | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1996 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1997 | Bahrain | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1997 | Gambia | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1997 | Slovenia | 1 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 1997 | Gabon | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1997 | Brazil | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1997 | Macedonia | 1 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 1998 | Namibia | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1998 | Malaisia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1998 | Argentina | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1998 | Canada | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1998 | Netherlands | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1998 | Greece | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 1999 | Bangladesh | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 1999 | Tunisia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1999 | Mali | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 1999 | Jamaica | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 1999 | Ukraine | 1 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 1999 | Slovakia | 1 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2000 | Singapore | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2000 | Mauritius | 0 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 2000 | Sudan | 0 | 0 | 1 | Africa |
| 2000 | Colombia | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2000 | Ireland | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2000 | Norway | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2000 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2001 | Guinea | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2001 | Cameroon | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2001 | Syria | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2001 | Mexico | 0 | 1 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2001 | Dominican Republic | 1 | 0 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2001 | Bulgaria | 0 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 2001 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2002 | Angola | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2002 | Pakistan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2002 | Chile | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2002 | Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2002 | Spain | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2003 | Benin | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2003 | Algeria | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2003 | Philippines | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2003 | Romania | 0 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2003 | Brazil | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2004 | Tanzania | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2004 | Japan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2004 | Argentina | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2004 | Greece | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2004 | Denmark | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2005 | Qatar | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2005 | Slovakia | 1 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2005 | Congo | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2005 | Ghana | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2005 | Peru | 0 | 1 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2005 | Nicaragua | 0 | 0 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2006 | South Africa | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2006 | Indonesia | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2006 | Nepal | 0 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2006 | Belgium | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2006 | Italy | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2006 | Guatemala | 1 | 0 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2006 | Venezuela | 0 | 0 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2006 | Panama | 0 | 1 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2007 | Viet Nam | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2007 | Croatia | 1 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 2007 | Czech Republic | 0 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2007 | Costa Rica | 0 | 1 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2007 | Dominican Republic | 0 | 0 | 1 | GRULAC |
| 2007 | Burkina Faso | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2007 | Libya | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2008 | Uganda | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2008 | Iran | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2008 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2008 | Mexico | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2008 | Turkey | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2008 | Iceland | 1 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2008 | Austria | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2009 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2009 | Nigeria | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2009 | Gabon | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2009 | Lebanon | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2009 | Brazil | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2010 | Germany | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2010 | Portugal | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2010 | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2010 | India | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2010 | South Africa | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2010 | Colombia | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2011 | Azerbaijan | 1 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 2011 | Guatemala | 1 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2011 | Morocco | 0 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 2011 | Pakistan | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2011 | Togo | 0 | 0 | 1 | Africa |
| 2011 | Mauritania | 0 | 0 | 1 | Africa |
| 2011 | Kyrgyzstan | 1 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2011 | Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2011 | Hungary | 0 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2012 | Luxembourg | 1 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2012 | Rwanda | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2012 | Republic of Korea | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2012 | Cambodia | 1 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2012 | Bhutan | 0 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2012 | Argentina | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2012 | Australia | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2012 | Finland | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2013 | Lithuania | 1 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2013 | Saudi Arabia | 1 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2013 | Chad | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2013 | Nigeria | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2013 | Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2013 | Chile | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2014 | Angola | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2014 | Malaysia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2014 | Venezuela | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2014 | New Zealand | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2014 | Spain | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2014 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2015 | Senegal | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2015 | Japan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2015 | Egypt | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2015 | Uruguay | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2015 | Ukraine | 0 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2016 | Kazakhstan | 1 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2016 | Ethiopia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2016 | Thailand | 0 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2016 | Bolivia | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2016 | Sweden | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2016 | Italy | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2016 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2017 | Equatorial Guinea | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2017 | Ivory Coast | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2017 | Kuwait | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2017 | Peru | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2017 | Poland | 0 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2017 | Netherlands | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2018 | Dominican Republic | 1 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2018 | South Africa | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2018 | Indonesia | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2018 | Maldives | 1 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2018 | Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2018 | Belgium | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2019 | Estonia | 1 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 2019 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 1 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2019 | Vietnam | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2019 | Niger | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2019 | Tunisia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2019 | Romania | 0 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2020 | India | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2020 | Kenya | 0 | 1 | 1 | Africa |
| 2020 | Djibouti | 0 | 0 | 1 | Africa |
| 2020 | Mexico | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2020 | Ireland | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2020 | Norway | 0 | 1 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2020 | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 | WEOG |
| 2021 | Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2021 | Gabon | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2021 | Ghana | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2021 | United Arab Emirates | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2021 | Brazil | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2022 | Mozambique | 1 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2022 | Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2022 | Japan | 0 | 1 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2022 | Mongolia | 1 | 0 | 1 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2022 | Ecuador | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2022 | Malta | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2023 | Algeria | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2023 | Sierra Leone | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2023 | Republic of Korea | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2023 | Guyana | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2023 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 1 | EEG |
| 2023 | Slovenia | 0 | 1 | 1 | EEG |
| 2024 | Somalia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2024 | Pakistan | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2024 | Panama | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |
| 2024 | Denmark | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2024 | Greece | 0 | 1 | 0 | WEOG |
| 2025 | Democratic Republic of Congo | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2025 | Liberia | 0 | 1 | 0 | Africa |
| 2025 | Latvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | EEG |
| 2025 | Bahrain | 0 | 1 | 0 | Asia-Pacific |
| 2025 | Colombia | 0 | 1 | 0 | GRULAC |