I. Introduction
Human activities, and primarily those that involve burning greenhouse gases and cutting down forests, have a significant impact on the emergence and exacerbation of the alarming phenomenon of climate change. This is mainly due to global warming, shrinking of the ozone layer, reduction of biodiversity, or soil erosion 1. For this reason, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which is one of the most difficult challenges facing mankind, as increasing energy production is inextricably linked to basic human needs. Accordingly, reducing the energy intensity of national economies and improving energy efficiency in terms of energy generation and consumption are considered the most effective methods of reducing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. The change in the structure of how the world‘s energy needs are met remains equally important, with a shift in the direction of increasing the share of gas and renewable energy sources, as well as the use of so-called clean coal combustion technologies 2.
The issues related to climate change have been the subject of scientific research on more than one occasion. The need to protect the climate and achieve climate neutrality, understood as a state of equilibrium between the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere and the ability of so-called natural sinks to neutralise them, is now strongly emphasised 3. The European Union (EU) member states also face this issue, with more than 90 per cent of their citizens considering climate change a serious problem, while 87 per cent of them acknowledge that the EU should take decisive steps in this regard 4. Upon the analysis of the actions of EU institutions, it must be recognised that this stipulation is being fully fulfilled, as, according to the long-term strategies of the EU, and above all Article 2 of the European Union Regulation of 30 June 2021 5, nationwide emissions and removal of greenhouse gases regulated by EU law should be balanced within the Union by 2050 at the latest, thus reducing emissions to net zero by that date. In the long term, the EU‘s goal will be to aim for negative emissions.
As can be seen, among other things, based on recital 25 of the preamble to the aforementioned Regulation, EU member states have decided to set an intermediate target to be achieved by 2030. The idea is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals to such an extent that net greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. emissions net of removals) are reduced across the economy and the country by at least 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, which requires diversified and multi-level measures.
Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine what impact the EU‘s climate neutrality goals outlined above will have on the road transport sector, which is identified as one of the largest sources of environmentally harmful substances. The research questions posed by the author are to indicate how the implementation of the EU policy in the road transport sector in Poland should look like. Is decarbonisation of transportation a necessary action to achieve it? What are the risks of not implementing the EU rules in the field of climate neutrality?
II. Poland on the Road to Climate Neutrality
With the requirement to achieve climate neutrality in mind, many EU countries have taken strong measures in this regard. For example, one could point to a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) in Germany, issued in March 2021, in which the Court ruled that achieving climate neutrality is a new constitutional obligation of public authorities 6. Other countries, on the other hand, such as Finland 7. and Sweden 8, have decided to reach their climate neutrality goals much earlier (i.e., in 2035 and 2045, respectively.)
Compared to other countries, Poland’s climate policy is not moving in such a decisive direction. There are claims in the public debate that Poland is pursuing climate neutrality in its own time. It should be noted that although the evolution of the economy and energy is in the Polish interest, it must take place in a way that is safe for citizens, the economy, and the state 9. It is true, however, that Poland, as a member state of theEU, is not only obliged to comply with EU standards, but is also one of the entities creating these regulations. It appears that the changes in EU policy law will only accelerate and not slow down, and that is why Poland must adapt to these directions and dynamics of change, which in its case is not an easy task. The phrase ‘Poland stands by coal and Europe stands by gas 10’, which has been coined in recent years, is becoming increasingly important and shows what fundamental changes must take place in our country. The main goal underlying this transformation is decarbonisation, which means the systematic abandonment of the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere 11.
In Poland‘s case, decarbonisation is a difficult process because it means moving away from coal, which for years was the primary energy resource. Despite this, most Poles approve of the process described. This means requiring the use of renewable energy sources, which, in light of Article 2(22) of the Act of 20 February 2015 12 on renewable energy sources, include non-fossil energy sources, including wind energy, solar energy, aerothermal energy, geothermal energy, hydrothermal energy, hydropower, wave, current and tidal energy, energy obtained from biomass, biogas, agricultural biogas, and bioliquids.
In Poland, the degree of use of renewable energy sources is among the lowest in Europe. On the one hand, the analysis from 2017–2020 shows a steady increase from 14.6 per cent to 21.6 per cent. On the other hand, this result is almost twice as low as the EU average, while it is three times lower than in Finland and as much as four times lower than in countries such as Lithuania and Austria. Although the result of this research is not satisfactory in the case of Poland, the view of the future is rather optimistic due to the fact that only the Netherlands recorded a higher percentage increase in the share of renewable energy sources during the analysed period than Poland, where the coefficient was around 34 per cent 13.
The use of renewable energy sources is included in the framework of Poland‘s Energy Policy until 2040, in which the primary goal is to ensure energy security while ensuring the competitiveness of the economy, energy efficiency, and reducing the impact of the energy sector on the environment. It is based on three basic pillars, namely, a fair transition, zero-emissions energy system, and good air quality 14. The expansion of renewable energy sources (RES)is an important trend in the energy transition and, in Poland, it requires the development of a new energy system during the upcoming years. This is due not only to the changes resulting from the European Green Deal, but also to the requirement of creating stable and affordable sources of electricity 15.
With this in mind, it should be recognised that the development of renewable energy sources faces many barriers in Poland, as highlighted by the Supreme Audit Office in its 2020 report. Although, in the Office‘s opinion, there has been an improvement in the effectiveness of measures, the actions of the state‘s supreme authorities, most notably the Minister Responsible for Climate and the Minister Responsible for Energy, have not been fully effective and have not eliminated the current difficulties, resulting in a failure to provide a system for periodic and consistent monitoring of the renewable electricity generation subsector. The report also highlighted legislative omissions related to the failure to issue three regulations on the activities of prosumers and energy cooperatives, despite the fact that more than 22 months have passed since the end of the audit and the introduction of mandate to issue them to the Act on Renewable Energy Sources and the Energy Law 16.
In addition, the barriers to the development of the described energy sources have arisen as a result of the Act of 27 January 2022 on amendments to the Act on Renewable Energy Sources and Certain Other Acts 17, which modified the billing system and made the use of photovoltaic systems not as favourable as before, and thus many previously interested individuals and businesses opted out of establishing them.
III. Assumptions and Dilemmas of Green Transport
Next, it is worth noting that achieving climate neutrality goals requires multi-sectoral action. This includes not only the transformation of the energy and transportation sectors, but also the industrial sector and food, clothing or construction industries, as well as the production of plastics of the ecological system and waste management 18.
Transportation plays a key role in the economy and therefore achieving climate neutrality cannot be achieved without changes being made in this sector. It is widely recognised that transportation is a significant and growing source of air pollution worldwide 19. In Poland, transportation is primarily responsible for nitrogen oxide emissions, which account for approximately 40 per cent of total national emissions. The emission of other substances is also problematic, most notably CO2, with the highest emissions recorded in cars that are several dozen years old. The assumption is that by 2050, the transport is to be decarbonised through the implementation of concepts of sustainable and diversified transportation modes and technologies used in passenger and freight traffic. In terms of road transport, the most significant changes should concern the orientation towards low or zero emission modes of transport, including primarily public transport, walking and cycling, as well as the orientation towards the use of electric, hydrogen, or hybrid vehicles. Such measures should lead to travelling only by ‘light’ vehicles and electrified trains. For heavy-duty vehicles, on the other hand, a mix of batteries and zero-emission liquid fuels is an ideal solution. The result of implementing the principles presented above will be the possibility of economic development using clean and quiet transportation instead of a noisy and polluted one 20. Such activities directly benefit people’s health and quality of life. They are associated with a reduction in premature mortality from heart and lung disease, as well as a reduction in chronic bronchitis, asthma attacks, and other forms of respiratory disease 21.
The assumptions presented apply to both public and private transportation. From 2035, all new cars offered on the market will not be allowed to emit CO2 22. This is to ensure that the transportation sector becomes carbon neutral by 2050. One of the most important stipulations is considered to be the promotion of electromobility and the improvement of infrastructure that enables the use of electric transportation. This goal can only be achieved if the infrastructure is also improved, which, for example, is related to the number of electric car charging points. The decisions on their purchases have been postponed in many cases due to the energy crisis because of uncertainty about energy prices. For example, the issue of zero-carbon emissions is also being discussed in Poland, where most of the energy comes from fossil fuels at this point. The problems arising from the use of these cars are related to range and charging times and battery degradation, as well as the problems with recycling and replacement 23.
The decarbonisation process should also include public transportation, the improvement and promotion of which is a significant challenge. About 25 per cent of people in Poland use public transportation every day and about 20 per cent get around using it once or twice a week 24. Negative remarks towards public transport concern the quality of services provided, considered as the extent to which the product meets the requirements of users, with these requirements depending on their economic capabilities, especially income and resources 25. The users primarily emphasise the insufficient number of connections and the fact that many places are affected by transport exclusion. In addition, attention should be paid to the frequency of connections, the availability of information about schedule changes or the high price of tickets 26.
The requirements related to the decarbonisation of transportation are regulated by an act. According to Article 2(1) of the Act of 11 January 2018 on Electromobility and Alternative Fuels, a zero-emission bus means a bus or trolleybus ‘using electric energy for propulsion, including energy generated from hydrogen in the fuel cells installed therein, or only an engine the duty cycle of which does not lead to emissions of greenhouse gases or other substances covered by the system for managing emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances.’ 27. Pursuant to Article 68(4) of the aforementioned act, the local government entity referred to in Article 36 (1) in connection with Article 35(1) shall ensure that the share of zero-emission buses or biomethane-powered buses in the vehicle fleet in use is at least 5 per cent as of 1 January 2021; 10 per cent as of 1 January 2023; and 20 per cent as of 1 January 2025. The target share should be 30 per cent as of 1 January 2028. This requirement applies to local government units, excluding municipalities and counties with a population of less than 50,000.
Given the conditions outlined above, it should be pointed out that the process of complying with these requirements in Polish cities is very diversified. The number of electric buses in all cities is increasing steadily and currently stands at approximately 950. The largest number of buses, exceeding the EU requirements at this point, is recorded in cities such as Warsaw, Poznań, Jaworzno and Zielona Góra 28. The situation is quite different in Wrocław, for example, where the first electric buses were purchased only in 2022.
In turn, the impact of the energy crisis on the provision of public transportation services is well described by the example of Lublin, a city that already has 30 per cent electric buses among all buses in its municipal fleet and is a zero-emission leader in Poland. As a result of rising energy prices and their uncertainty, it was decided to reduce some services and replace trolleybuses with diesel vehicles, based on pure economic calculation 29.
Leaving aside the problems that came with the economic crisis, it should be noted that the trend of purchasing zero-emission buses is growing rapidly in Europe, including the EU countries. Over the past five years, their sales have increased more than sixfold, from 400 in 2016 to 2,500 in 2021. In 2021, for example, all-electric power transmission systems accounted for 10 per cent of new bus sales, which was higher than the sale of zero-emission cars. Thus, it can be concluded that the pace of the shift away from traditional fuel in the case of public transportation is outpacing the passenger car market 30.
And finally, it should be pointed out that one of the means leading to climate-neutral transportation could be autonomous vehicles, which can be seen as a cooperative partner provided that the cooperation between the controller and automation system entails the common goal of reaching the destination safely as well as building and executing agreed plans 31. Autonomous vehicles can have a positive effect on Polish transportation by contributing to the reduction of congestion on the roads and reducing the associated costs, as well as by reducing exhaust fumes emitted. In order to achieve this goal, further research and fulfilment of conditions are needed to meet all the necessary requirements 32.
IV. Summary
Achieving ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses a particular challenge to the transport sector, due to the technical limitations of replacing petroleum-based fuels 33. Given the actions of EU institutions, these changes are irreversible, and each member state must meet the requirements described above. It should be emphasised that in the case of Poland, which is at a different stage of development of the transport sector, it is quite revolutionary and requires taking broader action than previously and, above all, paying more attention to the consistency of climate policy and facilitating the development of renewable energy sources, including, above all, the photovoltaic industry, since decarbonisation is a definite condition for the changes to be made. Otherwise, achieving climate neutrality by 2050, including in transportation, will not be possible. Therefore, it is also important to foster the development of innovation and the manufacturing industry in Poland to form a direct basis for the development of renewable energy sources
The expectation of transport decarbonisation is part of the broader challenges facing EU member states in achieving climate neutrality, which in most cases means fundamental multi-sectoral changes. It is important to remember that appropriate regulations must be adopted, which applies to the hydrogen industry, for example. In addition, zero-carbon technologies should be constantly identified and further supported by relevant government bodies and programs. It is also important to allow for the active participation of other entities‘ consumers in energy transition activities, and to provide adequate funding. In the case of countries such as Poland, this amount is much higher than the EU average 34.
The challenges outlined above must be supported by society, as the most important changes need to be made in the way people think about the energy transition and the changes that need to be made as a result.