Wie wirkt der China-Schock 2.0 auf die deutsche Industrie, und wie sollen wir reagieren?

The global expansion of Chinese exports, particularly of technology-intensive products, is hitting the German economy hard. According to estimates, competition from China is likely to have led to a decline in the German economy’s real gross domestic product of around 1.4 per cent between 2019 and 2025; the number of people in employment in the German manufacturing sector is likely to have fallen by around 400,000 as a result. Despite technological catch-up, the competitive advantages of the Chinese economy are likely to be attributable to a large extent to distortions of competition, in particular through heavy industrial subsidies and an undervalued yuan. To create a level playing field, the EU should impose sector-wide countervailing duties – ideally in conjunction with like-minded countries within a countervailing duty club. Price-based countervailing duties are necessary from a regulatory perspective and have a less severe impact than the volume-based instruments currently under discussion in the EU.