Wie evidenzbasierte Politikberatung in Krisenzeiten trotz unvollständiger Daten gelingt

Policy decisions in times of crisis often cannot wait for complete data. This article examines how scientific policy advice can nevertheless generate credible evidence. Two studies commissioned by the European Parliament illustrate complementary approaches: comparing successive EBA stress tests to approximate banks’ exposure to geopolitical risk, and combining public, supervisory, and commercial data to assess who holds bail-inable bank debt. The findings support targeted rather than uniform prudential measures and reveal substantial gaps in the data infrastructure for bank resolution. Transparent assumptions, institutional independence, and improved access to timely, consistent supervisory data are essential for credible evidence-based policy advice.