Abstract
Since 2022, inflation and interest rates in Germany have noticeably increased. We examine the impact of heightened inflation and interest rates on the financial balances of municipalities in North Rhine-Westphalia. In our scenario analysis, we consider systematic differences between highly and less indebted municipalities. While there are positive effects on the revenue side that offset the higher costs on the expenditure side, such as some taxes being tied to nominal values, the analysis suggests that the overall effect on the financial balance is likely to be negative.