UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

Tissen, Victor; Tolstikov, Alexander; Malkin, Zinovy

doi:10.2478/v10018-010-0012-9

Abstract

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method provides better accuracy both for ultra-short and long term predictions.

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UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

Abstract

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