Safety as an Instrumental Condition for Achieving System Objectives: A Goal-Oriented Model Grounded in the Principle of Probability Adequacy
Abstract
Problem statement
Reducing the accident rate in aviation requires safety to be ensured at every stage of risk management. The risk management context is the formalized set of conditions within which objectives are defined and risk criteria are established, so that an event is classified as a risk only insofar as it affects the achievability of those objectives. Under these conditions, safety cannot be treated as an independent goal: doing so produces a methodological disconnect, distorts the hierarchy of goals, creates conflict between functional activity and safety requirements, and drives an orientation toward zero risk. This conceptual and theoretical study develops a formalized, goal-oriented risk management framework in which safety is a function of the balance between the probability of threats and the effectiveness of preventive measures.
Aim
To formulate the risk management context within a goal-oriented framework, in which safety is treated as an instrumental attribute reflecting the adequacy of risk treatment measures relative to predefined risk acceptance criteria and the achievement of the system’s objective, including in aviation.
Conclusions
Safety should be interpreted as an instrumental attribute of the adequacy of risk management decisions, not an autonomous goal; treating it as such (its teleologization) reduces the functional effectiveness and resilience of sociotechnical systems. The resulting goal-oriented framework provides a methodological basis for improving risk-informed management under uncertainty.
© 2026 Anatolii Bielikov, Zakhar Matsuk, Oleksandr Zaporozhets, Valeriia Zhurbenko, Maryna Varianychko, published by ŁUKASIEWICZ RESEARCH NETWORK – INSTITUTE OF AVIATION
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.