Assessment of the Usefulness of e-LNG, e-LPG, and Other Alternative Marine Fuels in the Baltic Sea Region Based on OECD Short-Term Evaluation Criteria

The maritime sector faces increasing regulatory and economic pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, requiring region-specific evaluation of alternative marine fuels. This study examines the short-term (10–15 years) usefulness of alternative fuels in the Baltic Sea Region through an integrated assessment combining literature review, regional trade analysis using Eurostat and HELCOM data, vessel segmentation, infrastructure readiness analysis, and techno-economic modelling. A GT–LOA conversion formula is derived from ship databases to improve vessel-based fuel demand estimation and support infrastructure compatibility analysis. The results identify e-LPG, e-LNG, green methanol, ammonia, and biofuels as the most viable fuels for the transition period, emphasizing the role of infrastructure availability, regulatory cost mechanisms, and vessel size distribution in shaping adoption pathways. The findings indicate that the Baltic Sea Region is entering a critical transitional phase in which alternative fuels can be deployed through phased implementation strategies combining transitional and zero-carbon options. The study provides decision support for policymakers, port authorities, and industry stakeholders regarding fuel investment planning, infrastructure development, and emerging maritime energy business opportunities.