Fig. 1:
Fig. 2:
Areas and indicators for studying the country’s security level in wartime in economic and environmental terms
| Industrial safety in the regions | Share of high-tech products in the volume of industrial products sold, % |
| External economic security of regions | Openness of the economy |
| Investment and innovation security of regions | Ratio of net foreign direct investment to GRP, % |
| Food security in the regions | Daily calorie intake per person, thousand kcal, % |
| Environmental safety of regions | Share of renewable energy in final energy consumption in the transport sector/Share of renewable sources in total primary energy supply |
Generalised proposals for improving the state of environmental indicators in Ukraine
| No | Indicators | Key problem | Proposals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Share of renewable energy in final energy consumption in the transport sector/Share of renewable sources in total primary energy supply | Lack of a comprehensive energy balance for regions, which makes it impossible to analyse energy security | Development of a methodology for assessing the energy balances of Ukraine’s regions based on international standards + creation of regional RES development plans based on needs/threats |
| 2 | Percentage of polluted (untreated or insufficiently treated) wastewater discharged into water bodies | Critical situation with discharges in 5+ regions | Regional Zero Polluted Discharge programmes with modernisation of treatment systems, local projects in communities |
| 3 | Percentage of household and similar waste recycled | Extremely low recycling rates in most regions | Introduce annual recycling growth quotas; support projects for sorting, recycling organic waste and solid waste |
| 4 | Area of organic land as a percentage of total agricultural land | No official statistics, accounting through unofficial sources | Inclusion of organic matter in statistics (through the state observation plan) + formation of regional programmes to support organic farming |
| 5 | Current expenditure on environmental protection, per cent of GRP | Share of expenditure < 1% of GRP in most regions | Recommended minimum expenditure on environmental protection in local budgets |
| 6 | Share of capital investments in environmental protection in total capital investments, per cent | Low interest among businesses in investing in environmental protection | Tax incentives: VAT/tax credit for eco-investments in purification technologies, renewable energy sources, waste disposal |
List of indicators and definition of the scale for assessing their values to evaluate the level of self-sufficiency in the production of staple foods (conventionally rational consumption standard)
| No. | Indicator name, unit of measurement | Method of calculating the indicator | Standards recommended by theUkrainian Research Institute of Nutrition and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health | Food product sets, Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 780 of 11 October 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Children under 6 years | Children aged 6 to 18 | Working-age population | Non-working population | ||||
| 1 | Self-sufficiency rate for meat and meat products, per cent | Volume of meat and meat product production, thousand tonnes / (current population, million people × consumption standard of the Institute of Nutrition and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health, kg) | 83 | 40 | 62.4 | 53 | 38 |
| 2 | Self-sufficiency rate for milk and dairy products, per cent | Volume of milk and dairy product production, thousand tonnes / (total population, million people × consumption standard of the Institute of Nutrition and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health, kg) | 380 | 213.05 | 209.3 | 143.5 | 122.3 |
| 3 | Self-sufficiency level of egg production, per cent | Egg production volume, thousand units / (current population, million people × consumption standard of the Institute of Nutrition and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health, units) | 290 | 182.5 | 365 | 220 | 187.5 |
| 4 | Self-sufficiency level of potato production, per cent | Potato production volume, thousand tonnes / (current population, million people × consumption rate set by the Institute of Nutrition and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health, kg) | 124 | 73 | 93.7 | 95 | 108 |
| 5 | Self-sufficiency level of vegetable and edible melon production, per cent | Volume of vegetable and edible melon production, thousand tonnes / (current population, million people × consumption standard of the Institute of Nutrition and Hygiene of the Ministry of Health, kg) | 161 | 82.1 | 109.3 | 110 | 98 |
| 6 | Self-sufficiency level of cereal product production (bread, pasta products converted to flour, cereals, pulses), per cent | Volume of cereal and legume production, thousand tonnes / (current population, million people × consumption standard of the National Institute of Nutrition and Food Hygiene of the Ministry of Health, kg) | 101 | 63 | 107.7 | 123.4 | 122.9 |
Characteristic values of indicators for environmental security as a component of economic security
| No. | Indicator name, unit of measurement | XL critical | XL non-critical | XL non-dual | XL pair | XL opt | XR whole-sale | XR pair | XR single | XR non-separable | XR critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Share of renewable energy in final | 2.8 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 14 | |||||
| 2 | Share of renewable sources in total primary energy supply, per cent Proportion of discharges of polluted | 5 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 42.5 | |||||
| 3 | (untreated or inadequately treated) wastewater into water bodies, per cent | 0 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 22 | |||||
| 4 | Recycling rate for household and similar waste, per cent | 13 | 26 | 39 | 52 | 65 | |||||
| 5 | Area of organic land as a percentage of total agricultural land | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | |||||
| 6 | Current expenditure on environmental protection, as a percentage of GDP | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | |||||
| 7 | Share of capital investment in environmental protection as a percentage of total capital investment | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Comparison of average security levels in the Ukrainian Black Sea region before and after the full-scale aggression
| Indicator | Odesa region | Mykolaiv region | Kherson region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial safety in the regions | |||
| Share of high-tech products in the total volume of industrial output, per cent | |||
| Share of value added at production cost of enterprises belonging to the high-tech sector of the manufacturing industry in total value added at production cost, per cent | |||
| Share of value added based on production costs of enterprises belonging to the medium-high-tech sector of the manufacturing industry in total value added based on production costs, per cent | |||
| Proportion of employees working in enterprises belonging to the high- and medium-high-tech sectors of the manufacturing industry as a percentage of the total number of employees in industry | |||
| Labour intensity of industrial production, per cent | |||
| Operating profit margin of industrial enterprises, per cent | |||
| Operating profit margin of construction companies, per cent | |||
| Operating profit margin of transport, warehousing, postal and courier services, in per cent | |||
| External economic security of regions | |||
| Economic openness, per cent | |||
| Export-to-import coverage ratio, times | |||
| Share of the leading partner country in total exports of goods, per cent | |||
| Share of the leading partner country in total volume of goods imports, per cent | |||
| Share of the leading product (product group) in total exports of goods, per cent | |||
| Share of the leading product (product group), excluding energy imports, in total imports of goods, per cent | |||
| Share of raw material and low-value-added industrial exports in total goods exports, per cent | |||
| Share of imports in domestic consumption, per cent | |||
| Investment and innovation security of regions | |||
| Ratio of net increase in foreign direct investment to GRP, per cent | |||
| Ratio of loans granted to non-financial corporations and households for the purchase, construction and renovation of real estate (cumulative, adjusted for exchange rate differences) to GVA | |||
| Size of the region’s economy (GRP), as a percentage of Ukraine’s GDP | |||
| Share of scientific and scientific-technical work in GDP, per cent | |||
| Ratio of expenditure on scientific and scientific-technical work funded from the state budget, as a percentage of GDP | |||
| Number of specialists engaged in scientific and technical work as a proportion of the employed population (per 1,000 people) | |||
| Share of intangible investment in GRP, per cent | |||
| Food security in the regions (based on the level of self-sufficiency in domestic production) | |||
| Level of self-sufficiency in meat and meat products, per cent | |||
| Self-sufficiency rate for milk and dairy products, per cent | |||
| Egg production self-sufficiency rate, per cent | |||
| Potato production sufficiency rate, per cent | |||
| Self-sufficiency rate for vegetable and edible melon production, per cent | |||
| Grain production per capita per year, tonnes | |||
| Environmental safety of regions | |||
| Proportion of discharges of polluted (untreated or inadequately treated) wastewater into water bodies, per cent | |||
| Recycling rate for household and similar waste, per cent | |||
| Area of organic land as a percentage of total agricultural land | |||
| Current expenditure on environmental protection, as a percentage of GRP | |||
| Share of capital investment in environmental protection as a percentage of total capital investment | |||
Characteristic values of indicators for industrial safety as a component of economic security for regions
| No. | Indicator name, unit of measurement | XL critical | XL non-critical | XL non-dual | XL double | XL opt | XR whole-sale | XR pair | XR single | XR non-separable | XR critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Share of high-tech products in the total volume of industrial output, per cent | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 45 | 60 | 75 |
| 2 | Share of value added at production cost of enterprises belonging to the high-tech sector of the manufacturing industry in total value added at production cost, per cent | 2 | 3.25 | 4.5 | 5.75 | 7 | |||||
| 3 | Share of value added by production costs of enterprises belonging to the medium-high-tech sector of the manufacturing industry in total value added by production costs, per cent | 4 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 9.6 | |||||
| 4 | Proportion of employees working in enterprises belonging to the high- and medium-high-tech sectors of the manufacturing industry as a percentage of the total number of employees in industry | 18 | 20.5 | 23 | 25.5 | 28 | |||||
| 5 | Labour intensity of industrial production, per cent | 4 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 40 | 45 | 50 |
| 6 | Operating profit margin of industrial enterprises, per cent | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 60 |
| 7 | Operating profit margin of construction companies, per cent | –1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 60 |
| 8 | Operating profitability of transport, warehousing, postal and courier services, per cent | –5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
Generalised proposals for improving Ukraine’s production indicators
| No | Indicators | Key problem | Proposals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Share of high-tech products in the volume of industrial products sold, % | Very low values in most regions, lack of effective incentive programmes | Formulation of targeted programmes for the development of high-tech production at the level of regional state administrations; tax incentives for such enterprises |
| 2 | Share of added value of enterprises in the high-tech manufacturing sector, % | Very low values in most regions, lack of effective incentive programmes | Conducting cluster analysis of successful regions and scaling up practices through public-private technical modernisation projects |
| 3 | Share of added value of enterprises in the medium-high-tech sector, % | Sharp regional disparities: growth only in some regions, stagnation or decline in others | Conducting cluster analysis of successful regions and scaling up practices through public-private technical modernisation projects |
| 4 | Share of employees in high-and medium-high-tech sectors, % | Systemic degradation of the workforce in manufacturing in most regions | Regional programmes for professional retraining of personnel with a focus on STEM and engineering professions; support for dual education |
| 5 | Labour intensity of industrial production, % | High labour intensity in a number of regions, indicating a low level of automation | Launch of a national programme to support the technological modernisation of industrial enterprises with the involvement of preferential financing |
| 6 | Profitability of industrial enterprises’ operating activities, % | Fluctuations in profitability between regions; significant decline after 2022 | Introduction of mechanisms to stabilise access to energy resources and logistics for industrial enterprises, especially in de-occupied territories |
| 7 | Profitability of operating activities in construction, % | Fluctuations in profitability between regions; significant decline after 2022 | Long-term construction planning with state support; state reconstruction strategies |
| 8 | Profitability of operating activities in transport, warehousing, postal and courier services, % | Fluctuations in profitability between regions; significant decline after 2022 | Global logistics projects, compensation for logistics losses |
Generalised proposals for improving the state of investment and innovation indicators in Ukraine
| No | Indicators | Key problem | Proposals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ratio of net foreign direct investment inflows to GRP, % | High regional imbalance in FDI inflows | Creation of regional investment portals and project banks focused on environmental and innovative areas |
| 2 | Ratio of real estate loans to GRP, % | Insufficient volume of available lending outside the capital regions | Creation of regional programmes to guarantee loans for housing and production modernisation |
| 3 | Size of the region’s economy, % of Ukraine’s GDP | Excessive concentration of the economy in certain regions | Support for interregional infrastructure clusters in weaker regions |
| 4 | Share of R&D in GRP, % | Chronic underfunding of science in most regions | Introduction of regional grant competitions with a mandatory commercialisation component |
| 5 | Expenditure on R&D from the state budget in GRP, % | Lack of sustainable programmes to support applied science in the regions | Delegation of part of state funding for R&D to the regional level through targeted funds |
| 6 | Number of researchers per employed population (per 1,000 people) | Brain drain and lack of incentives for young professionals | Regional co-financing programmes for doctoral studies, youth science, mobility |
| 7 | Percentage of enterprises implementing innovations, % | Prevalence of an extensive industrial model, weak R&D | Industrial accelerators, incentives for innovation costs in regional development programmes |
| 8 | Share of innovative products in industry, % | Predominant focus on low-tech products | Target orders for innovative products in regional procurement, partnerships with universities |
| 9 | Share of people using the Internet, % | Territorial gaps in digital inclusion | Co-financing the development of digital infrastructure in rural communities |
| 10 | Share of intangible investments in GDP, % | Insufficient attention to intellectual property and creative sectors | Regional programmes to stimulate IT, design, start-ups with IP component support |
Characteristic values of indicators for investment and innovation security as a component of economic security for regions
| No. | Indicator name, unit of measurement | XL critical | XL non-critical | XL nondual | XL pair | XL opt | XR whole-sale | XR pair | XR single | XR non-separable | XR critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ratio of the region’s net increase in foreign direct investment to GRP, per cent | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |||||
| 2 | Ratio of loans granted to non-financial corporations and households for the purchase, construction and renovation of real estate in the region, as a percentage of GRP | 10 | 13 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 |
| 3 | Size of the region’s economy (GRP), as a percentage of Ukraine’s GDP | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4 | 4 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 7.2 |
| 4 | Share of the volume of scientific and scientific-technical work performed in GRP, per cent | 0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 3 | |||||
| 5 | Ratio of expenditure on scientific and scientific-technical work funded from the regional state budget to GRP | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 1 | |||||
| 6 | Number of specialists engaged in scientific and technical work as a percentage of the employed population (per 1,000 persons) | 5 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | |||||
| 7 | Proportion of enterprises that introduced innovations in the total number of industrial enterprises, per cent | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 35 | |||||
| 8 | Proportion of innovative products sold in total industrial output, per cent | 3 | 7 | 15 | 20 | 25 | |||||
| 9 | Proportion of people who reported having used the Internet in the last 12 months (household survey), per cent | 20 | 30 | 45 | 60 | 80 | |||||
| 10 | Share of the region’s intangible investments in GRP, per cent | 2.8 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 14 |
Share of problematic indicators (by type of security and overall) by region of Ukraine (based on average values for the period 2019–2024)
| Region | Production | Foreign economic | Investment and innovation | Food | Environmental | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luhansk | 75 | 50 | 90 | 100 | 66.67 | 80.56 |
| Lviv | 8 | 5 | 80 | 62 | 83.33 | 75 |
| Donetsk | 75 | 50 | 80 | 87.5 | 50 | 72.22 |
| Chernivtsi | 87.5 | 50 | 90 | 50 | 66.67 | 72.22 |
| Kherson | 87 | 50 | 90 | 50 | 66.67 | 72.22 |
| Mykolaiv | 75 | 50 | 90 | 50 | 66.67 | 69.44 |
| Odessa | 75 | 25 | 70 | 75 | 83.33 | 69.44 |
| Transcarpathian | 87 | 50 | 90 | 50 | 50 | 69.44 |
| Khmelnytsky | 75 | 50 | 90 | 37.5 | 66.67 | 66.67 |
| Cherkasy | 100 | 75 | 70 | 25 | 66.67 | 66 |
| Volyn | 5 | 75 | 90 | 37 | 66.67 | 63.89 |
| Zhytomyr | 62 | 50 | 90 | 37.5 | 66.67 | 63.89 |
| Zaporizhzhia | 75 | 50 | 70 | 50 | 66.67 | 63.89 |
| Kirovograd | 75 | 50 | 80 | 37.5 | 66.67 | 63.89 |
| Rivne | 75 | 25 | 90 | 37.5 | 66.67 | 63.89 |
| Chernihiv | 75 | 50 | 90 | 25 | 66.67 | 63.89 |
| Kharkiv | 62 | 50 | 80 | 50 | 50 | 61.11 |
| Kyiv region and Kyiv city | 75 | 50 | 80 | 25 | 66.67 | 61.11 |
| Poltava | 75 | 50 | 70 | 25 | 83.33 | 61.11 |
| Dnipropetrovsk | 50 | 25 | 90 | 50 | 50 | 58.33 |
| Sumy | 37 | 25 | 80 | 37.5 | 83.33 | 55.56 |
| Ivano-Frankivsk | 62 | 25 | 80 | 25 | 66.67 | 55.56 |
| Ternopil | 62 | 50 | 70 | 25 | 66.67 | 55.56 |
| Vinnytsia | 50 | 25 | 80 | 12.5 | 66.67 | 50 |
| Average value for Ukraine | 71.354 | 45.833 | 82 | 44.270 | 66.668 | 64.815 |
Characteristic values of indicators for food security as a component of economic security
| No. | Indicator name, unit of measurement | XL critical | XL non-critical | XL non-dual | XL double | XL opt | XR whole-sale | XR pair | XR single | XR non-separable | XR critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daily calorie intake, kcal | 2250 | 2500 | 2700 | 2900 | 3100 | |||||
| 2 | Ratio of production and consumption of meat and meat products per capita, per cent | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 105 | |||||
| 3 | Ratio of production and consumption of milk and dairy products per capita, per cent | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 105 | |||||
| 4 | Ratio of egg production to consumption per capita, per cent | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 105 | |||||
| 5 | Ratio of potato production and consumption per capita, per cent | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 105 | |||||
| 6 | Ratio of production and consumption of vegetables and edible melons per capita, per cent | 80 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 105 | |||||
| 7 | Grain production per capita per year, tonnes | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | |||||
| 8 | Affordability of products | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
Number of problematic indicators (by area) of economic security by region of Ukraine (based on average values for the period 2019–2023)
| Region | Production (8 indic. in total) | Foreign economic (4 indicat. in total) | Investment and innovation (10 indicat. in total) | Food (8 indicat. in total) | Environmental (6 indicat. in total) | Total (36 indicat. in total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumy | 3 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| Vinnytsia | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| Volyn | 4 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| Dnipropetrovsk | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| Zhytomyr | 5 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| Ivano-Frankivsk | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| Ternopil | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| Kharkiv | 5 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| Donetsk | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 26 |
| Zaporizhzhia | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| Kyiv region and Kyiv city | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| Kirovograd | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| Luhansk | 6 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| Mykolaiv | 6 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25 |
| Odessa | 6 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 25 |
| Poltava | 6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| Rivne | 6 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| Khmelnytsky | 6 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| Chernihiv | 6 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 23 |
| Chernivtsi | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| Transcarpathian | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| Lviv | 7 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 |
| Kherson | 7 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 24 |
Generalised proposals for improving Ukraine’s food security indicators
| No | Indicators | Key issue | Proposals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daily calorie intake per person, thousand kcal, % | Regional imbalance in dietary calorie intake, particularly in areas of active hostilities. | Review of the list of food products |
| 2 | Affordability of food | A high proportion of household expenditure is accounted for by food and non-alcoholic beverages – the average for Ukraine is 47.24% | comprising the consumer basket and, consequently, the minimum subsistence level |
| 3 | Ratio of production and consumption volumes of meat and meat products per capita, % | Insufficient meat production by region. | Establishment of regional investment programmes/projects and grant schemes for livestock development to supply educational and healthcare institutions, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and socially vulnerable groups |
| 4 | Ratio of production and consumption of milk and dairy products per capita, % | Insufficient meat production across individual regions. Imbalances in production. | |
| 5 | Ratio of production and consumption of eggs per capita, | Insufficient egg production by region. Imbalances in production. | Creation of regional investment programmes/projects and grant schemes for poultry farming development at the local level to supply educational and healthcare institutions, as well as the Armed Forces of Ukraine |
| 6 | Ratio of potato production to consumption per capita, % | Excess production | Development of regional programmes for potato processing and the enhancement of export potential to facilitate the export of high value-added processed products |
| 7 | Ratio of production to consumption of vegetables and edible melons per capita, % | Excess production | Development of regional programmes for the deep processing of vegetables and melons to meet domestic demand and increase export potential |
| 8 | Annual grain production per capita, tonnes, | Existence of regional disparities | Increasing the degree of processing of cereals and pulses to boost exports of high value-added products |
Characteristic values of indicators for external economic security as a component of economic security
| No. | Indicator name, unit of measurement | XL critical | XL non-critical | XL non-dual | XL double | XL opt | XR wholesale | XR pair | XR single | XR nonseparable | XR critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Economic openness, per cent | 75 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 100 | |||||
| 2 | Export-to-import coverage ratio, times | 0.85 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 0.975 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.25 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | Share of raw material and low-value-added industrial exports in total goods exports, per cent | 0.1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 |
| 4 | Share of imports in the country’s domestic consumption, per cent | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12.5 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 30 |