Fig. 1
Area of study.
Source: own elaboration.
Fig. 2
The general framework of the study.
Source: own elaboration.
Fig. 3
COVID-19 cases between March 2020 and March 2021.
Source: own elaboration.
Fig. 4
Death cases from COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.
Source: own elaboration.
Fig. 5
CFR of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.
CFR – case fatality rate.
Source: own elaboration.
Fig. 6
VLN of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.
VLN – vulnerability.
Source: own elaboration
Fig. 7
The cluster of COVID-19 based on VLN, cumulative cases, death cases, and CFR in every province.
VLN – vulnerability; CFR – case fatality rate.
Source: own elaboration.
Table 1
Attributes of clusters and summary.
| Characteristics | Cluster 1 | Cluster 2 | Cluster 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLN | Moderate | Low | High |
| CCS per 1 million of population | Low | Moderate | High |
| Death per 1 million of population | Low | Moderate | High |
| CFR | High | Moderate | Low |
| Members of clusters | Thirty-one other provinces (Table 2) | Two provinces: East Kalimantan and North Kalimantan | One province: DKI Jakarta |
[i] CFR – case fatality rate; VLN – vulnerability; CCS – cumulative cases
[ii] Source: own study.
Table 2
Cluster membership of COVID-19 in every province.
| No | Province | VLN | CCS per 1 mi pop | Death per 1 mi pop | CFR | Cluster |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aceh | 0.24 | 1,810.82 | 72.87 | 4.02 | 1 |
| 2 | Bali | 0.70 | 7,958.33 | 214.58 | 2.70 | 1 |
| 3 | Banten | 0.28 | 2,478.74 | 51.60 | 2.08 | 1 |
| 4 | Kepulauan Bangka Belitung | 0.30 | 5,050.68 | 76.71 | 1.52 | 1 |
| 5 | Bengkulu | 0.26 | 2,455.72 | 73.13 | 2.98 | 1 |
| 6 | Di Yogyakarta | 1.00 | 7,620.44 | 185.83 | 2.44 | 1 |
| 7 | Jambi | 0.27 | 1,546.20 | 23.38 | 1.51 | 1 |
| 8 | West Kalimantan | 0.24 | 857.67 | 6.10 | 0.71 | 1 |
| 10 | Central Kalimantan | 0.19 | 5,215.36 | 135.58 | 2.60 | 1 |
| 11 | South Kalimantan | 0.30 | 5,415.97 | 179.85 | 3.32 | 1 |
| 13 | Kepulauan Riau | 0.17 | 4,230.58 | 106.80 | 2.52 | 1 |
| 14 | West Nusa Tenggara | 0.27 | 1,652.26 | 64.29 | 3.89 | 1 |
| 15 | South Sumatera | 0.35 | 1,885.48 | 91.62 | 4.86 | 1 |
| 16 | West Sumatera | 0.44 | 5,281.01 | 117.00 | 2.22 | 1 |
| 17 | North Sulawesi | 0.61 | 5,733.21 | 188.93 | 3.30 | 1 |
| 18 | North Sumatera | 0.30 | 1,666.62 | 56.62 | 3.40 | 1 |
| 19 | South East Sulawesi | 0.15 | 3,837.40 | 74.05 | 1.93 | 1 |
| 20 | South Sulawesi | 0.39 | 6,211.58 | 92.94 | 1.50 | 1 |
| 21 | Central Sulawesi | 0.24 | 3,377.59 | 86.62 | 2.56 | 1 |
| 22 | Lampung | 0.40 | 1,399.33 | 72.14 | 5.16 | 1 |
| 23 | Riau | 0.14 | 4,922.22 | 119.72 | 2.43 | 1 |
| 24 | North Maluku | 0.11 | 3,114.84 | 88.28 | 2.83 | 1 |
| 25 | Maluku | 0.19 | 3,775.14 | 56.76 | 1.50 | 1 |
| 26 | West Papua | 0.00 | 6,584.96 | 111.50 | 1.69 | 1 |
| 27 | Papua | 0.04 | 3,973.02 | 41.16 | 1.04 | 1 |
| 28 | West Sulawesi | 0.20 | 3,685.92 | 73.24 | 1.99 | 1 |
| 29 | East Nusa Tenggara | 0.25 | 1,742.40 | 49.16 | 2.82 | 1 |
| 30 | Gorontalo | 0.23 | 4,100.85 | 116.24 | 2.83 | 1 |
| 32 | West Java | 0.44 | 4,410.07 | 48.97 | 1.11 | 1 |
| 33 | Central Java | 0.67 | 4,208.24 | 183.16 | 4.35 | 1 |
| 34 | East Java | 0.79 | 3,191.54 | 224.91 | 7.05 | 1 |
| 9 | East Kalimantan | 0.18 | 14,808.49 | 347.21 | 2.34 | 2 |
| 12 | North Kalimantan | 0.12 | 14,008.57 | 211.43 | 1.51 | 2 |
| 31 | Dki Jakarta | 0.37 | 32,366.76 | 524.62 | 1.62 | 3 |
[i] The bold number indicates a particular variable value that surpasses other cluster centres.
[ii] VLN – vulnerability; CCS – cumulative cases; CFR – case fatality rate
[iii] Source: own calculation.
Table 3
Final cluster centre.
| Final Cluster Centre | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | Cluster | ||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| VLN | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| CCS per 1 million of population | 3,851.43 | 14,408.53 | 32,366.76 |
| Death per 1 million of population | 99.48 | 279.32 | 524.62 |
| CFR | 2.74 | 1.93 | 1.62 |
[i] CFR – case fatality rate; VLN – vulnerability, CCS – cumulative cases
[ii] Source: own calculation.
Table 4
Descriptive statistics for each cluster.
| Cluster | VLN | CCS per 1 million of population | Death per 1 million populations | CFR | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Min | Mean | Max | Min | Mean | Max | Min | Mean | Max | Min | Mean | Max | |
| 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 857.67 | 3,851.43 | 7,958.33 | 6.10 | 99.48 | 224.91 | 0.71 | 2.74 | 7.05 |
| 2 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 14,008.57 | 14,408.53 | 14,808.49 | 211.43 | 279.32 | 347.21 | 1.51 | 1.93 | 2.34 |
| 3 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 32,366.76 | 32,366.76 | 32,366.76 | 524.62 | 524.62 | 524.62 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.62 |
[i] CCS – cumulative cases; CFR – case fatality rate; VLN – vulnerability.
[ii] Sources: Analysed from www.covid19.go.id and gis.dukcapil.kemendagri.go.id.
Table 5
Indonesian holidays and the increasing number of positive cases.
| Type of holidays | Baseline* | A week after | 2 weeks after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eid day (May 18–24, 2020) | 4,757 | Increase 49% | Increase 60% (in accumulative) |
| The birth of Prophet Muhammad (October 28–30, 2020) | 23,072 | Increase 32% | Increase 59% (in accumulative) |
| Natal and New Year’s Eve (December 25–31, 2020) | 50,360 | Increase 63% | Increase 71% (in accumulative) |
[i] Sources: compiled from www.covid19.go.id; Litbang Kompas (2021), Chryshna (2021).