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Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018 Cover

Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018

Quaestiones Geographicae
Volume 40 (2021): Issue 3 (September 2021)
By: Andrzej A. Marsz,  Anna Styszyńska,  Krystyna Bryś and  Tadeusz Bryś  
Open Access
|Sep 2021

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1

The geographical position of Wrocław in Europe.
The geographical position of Wrocław in Europe.

Fig. 2

The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1791–2018 as a deviation from the long-term average. Continuous curve – adjustment of the polynomial to the power of 5 to the empirical courses. The year 1951 (vertical dotted line) is marked, the initial year of the period 1951–2018 analysed in detail. Horizontal dashed lines mark limits of the ±1 SD. SD – standard deviation.
The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1791–2018 as a deviation from the long-term average. Continuous curve – adjustment of the polynomial to the power of 5 to the empirical courses. The year 1951 (vertical dotted line) is marked, the initial year of the period 1951–2018 analysed in detail. Horizontal dashed lines mark limits of the ±1 SD. SD – standard deviation.

Fig. 3

The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1951–2018. Significantly different courses in the periods 1951–1988 and 1988–2018 can be seen. Marked trends and their values in both periods.
The course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in the years 1951–2018. Significantly different courses in the periods 1951–1988 and 1988–2018 can be seen. Marked trends and their values in both periods.

Fig. 4

Variation ranges of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in both periods: 1951–1988 and 1988–2018. It appears noteworthy that in the second period, the lower limit of the second quartile is higher than the upper limit of the third quartile in the previous period, and the median in the second period is above the absolute maximum in the first period.
Variation ranges of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in both periods: 1951–1988 and 1988–2018. It appears noteworthy that in the second period, the lower limit of the second quartile is higher than the upper limit of the third quartile in the previous period, and the median in the second period is above the absolute maximum in the first period.

Fig. 5

The courses of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and the average annual values of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
The courses of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and the average annual values of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

Fig. 6

The course of annual sunshine duration in Wroclaw ShWr. The vertical dashed line (1988) marks the moment of transition of significantly different courses of ShWr.
The course of annual sunshine duration in Wroclaw ShWr. The vertical dashed line (1988) marks the moment of transition of significantly different courses of ShWr.

Fig. 7

The course of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and annual air temperature estimated based on long-day months of sunshine duration in Wroclaw (ShWrApr–Aug). The relationship between TWr and ShWrApr–Aug and its statistical characteristics are in the upper frame of the figure.
The course of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and annual air temperature estimated based on long-day months of sunshine duration in Wroclaw (ShWrApr–Aug). The relationship between TWr and ShWrApr–Aug and its statistical characteristics are in the upper frame of the figure.

Fig. 8

The predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in relation to the observed values. The dotted line indicates 99% confidence interval (1951–2018).
The predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in relation to the observed values. The dotted line indicates 99% confidence interval (1951–2018).

Fig. 9

The courses of the observed and predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in 1951–2018.
The courses of the observed and predicted (from Eq. (2)) values of annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) in 1951–2018.

Fig. 10

The course of the anomaly of the annual frequency of W, E and C macro-types of the middle-tropospheric circulation according to the classification by Wangengejm-Girs. The anomalies are calculated with reference to averages from the period 1951–2015. The vertical dashed line marks the moment of transition of circulation epoch E to circulation epoch W.
The course of the anomaly of the annual frequency of W, E and C macro-types of the middle-tropospheric circulation according to the classification by Wangengejm-Girs. The anomalies are calculated with reference to averages from the period 1951–2015. The vertical dashed line marks the moment of transition of circulation epoch E to circulation epoch W.

Values of correlation coefficients (r) and their statistical significance (p) between the annual frequency of W, E and C macro-types of the middle-tropospheric circulation and annual air temperature (TWr), annual sunshine duration (ShWr) and sunshine duration of the long-day months_ (ShWrApr–Aug) and annual precipitation (PWr) in Wrocław (1951–2018)_ Markings as in Table 1_

Macro-types TWrShWrShWrApr–AugPWr
Wrp0.4700.0000.6200.0000.6300.000−0.3100.010
Erp−0.3000.014−0.6000.000−0.5900.0000.3300.005
Crp−0.2400.0470.0900.4880.0400.729−0.1000.431

Values of correlation coefficients (r) and their statistical significance (p) between (DJFM) winter NAO Hurrell index and monthly and annual air temperature in Wrocław (1951–2018)_

MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear
r0.5700.4600.6100.1900.1900.0200.2100.3200.2300.140−0.1600.2400.580
p0.0000.0000.0000.1140.1250.8950.0800.0080.0580.2580.1980.0520.000

Values of correlation coefficients (r) between monthly and annual sunshine, and monthly and annual air temperature in Wrocław (1951–2018) along with their statistical significance (p)_

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearJan
r0.070−0.1100.2700.6400.6200.6600.8100.7400.6100.1400.0200.1400.610
p0.5830.3810.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.2480.8470.2390.000

Values of correlation coefficients (r) between monthly and annual cloudiness in Wrocław and air temperature in Wrocław (TWr) and their statistical significance (p)_ Analysis period: 1951–2018_

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearJan
r0.1000.210−0.180−0.340−0.380−0.330−0.520−0.24−0.4500.0100.0900.1300.120
p0.4010.0920.152−0.0040.0010.0060.0000.0530.0000.9290.4770.2800.344
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0027 | Journal eISSN: 2081-6383 | Journal ISSN: 2082-2103
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Language: English
Page range: 109 - 124
Submitted on: Jun 21, 2021
Published on: Sep 30, 2021
Published by: Adam Mickiewicz University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
air temperature trend,
macro-circulation conditions,
sunshine duration,
NAO,
radiative forcing,
CO
Related subjects:
Geosciences,
Geography

© 2021 Andrzej A. Marsz, Anna Styszyńska, Krystyna Bryś, Tadeusz Bryś, published by Adam Mickiewicz University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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