Numerical Simulations of Sea Ice Conditions in the Baltic Sea for 2010–2016 Winters Using the 3D CEMBS Model

Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur; Kańska, Alicja; Golenko, Maria; Dzierzbicka-Głowacka, Lidia

doi:10.2478/pomr-2018-0094

Abstract

Sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea during six latest winters – 2010/2011 to 2015/2016 are analysed using coupled ice–ocean numerical model 3D CEMBS (3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea). Simulation results are compared with observations from monitoring stations, ice charts and satellite data. High correlation between model results and observations has been confirmed both in terms of spatial and temporal approach. The analysed period has a high interannual variability of ice extent, the number of ice days and ice thickness. Increasing number of relatively mild winters in the Northern Europe directly associated with climate change results in reduced ice concentration in the Baltic Sea. In this perspective, the implementation and development of the sea ice modelling approach (in addition to standard monitoring techniques) is critical to assess current state of the Baltic Sea environment and predict possible climate related changes in the ecosystem and their influence for human marine–related activities, such as fishery or transportation.

References

1. Koslowski, G., Loewe, P. (1994). The western Baltic Sea ice season in terms of mass–related severity index: 1879–1992. Tellus, 46A, 66–74.10.3402/tellusa.v46i1.15433
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
2. Tinz, B. (1996). On the relation between annual maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea and sea level pressure as well as air temperature field. Geophysica, 32, 319–341.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
3. Pirazzini, R., Vihma, T., Granskog, M.A., Cheng, B. (2006). Surface albedo measurements over sea ice in the Baltic Sea during the spring snowmelt period. Annals of Glaciology, 44, 7–14.10.3189/172756406781811565
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
4. BACC II Author Team. (2015). Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Regional Climate Studies. Berlin: Springer.10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
5. Granskog, M., Kaartokallio, H., Kuosa, H., Thomas, D.N., Vainio, J. (2006). Sea ice in the Baltic Sea – A rewiev. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 70, 145–160.10.1016/j.ecss.2006.06.001
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
6. Leppäranta, M., Myrberg, K. (2009). Physical Oceanography of the Baltic Sea. Berlin, Heideberg: Springer–Verlag.10.1007/978-3-540-79703-6
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
7. BACC Author Team. (2008). Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Regional Climate Studies. Berlin: Springer.10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
8. Vihma, T., Haapala, J. (2009). Geophysics of sea ice in the Baltic Sea: A review. Progress in Oceanography, 80, 129–148.10.1016/j.pocean.2009.02.002
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
9. Döscher, R., Willén, U., Jones, C., Rutgersson, A., Meier, H.E.M., Hansson, U., Graham, L.P. (2002). The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO. Boreal Environment Research, 7, 183–192.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
10. Lehmann, A., Lorenz, P., Jacob, D. (2004). Modelling the exceptional Baltic Sea inflow events in 2002–2003. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(21).10.1029/2004GL020830
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
11. Dieterich, C., Schimanke, S., Wang, S., Väli, G., Liu, Y., Hordoir, R., Axell, L., Höglund, A., Meier, H.E.M. (2013). Evaluation of the SMHI coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO. SMHI Report Oceanography, 47.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
12. Pham, T.V., Brauch, J., Dieterich, C., Frueh, B., Ahrens, B. (2014). New coupled atmosphere – ocean – ice system COSMO-CLM/NEMO: assessing air temperature sensitivity over the North and Baltic Seas. Oceanologia, 56(2), 167–189.10.5697/oc.56-2.167
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
13. Pemberton, P., Löptien, U., Hordoir, R., Höglund, A., Schimanke, S., Axell, L., Haapala, J. (2017). Sea-ice evaluation of NEMO-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice model setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3105–3123.10.5194/gmd-10-3105-2017
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
14. Löptien, U., Axell, L. (2014). Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea. The Cryosphere, 8, 2409–2418.10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
15. Goerlandt, F., Montewka, J., Zhang, W., Kujala, P. (2016). An analysis of ship escort and convoy operations in ice conditions. Safety Sci., 95, 195–209.10.1016/j.ssci.2016.01.004
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
16. Haapala, J., Meier, H.E.M., Rinne, J. (2001). Numerical Investigations of Future Ice Conditions in the Baltic Sea. AMBIO, 30, 237–244.10.1579/0044-7447-30.4.237
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
17. Meier, H.E.M. (2006). Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscaling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios. Clim. Dynam., 27, 39–68.10.1007/s00382-006-0124-x
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
18. Eilola, K., Mårtensson, S., Meier, H.E.M. (2013). Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 149–154.10.1029/2012GL054375
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
19. Meier, H.E.M., Döscher, R., Halkka, A. (2004). Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal. Ambio, 33, 249–256.10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.249
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
20. Moore, J.K., Doney, S.C., Kleypas, J.A., Glover, D.M., Fung, I.Y. (2002). An intermediate complexity marine ecosystem model for the global domain. Deep Sea Research Part II, 49(1–3), 403–462.10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00108-4
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
21. Smith, R., Gent, P. (2002). Reference manual for the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), Los Alamos unclassified report LA–UR–02–2484.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
22. Hunke, E.C., Dukowicz, J.K. (1997). An Elastic–Viscous–Plastic Model for Sea Ice Dynamics. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 27(9), 1849–1867.10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<1849:AEVPMF>2.0.CO;2
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
23. Dzierzbicka–Głowacka, L., Jakacki, J., Janecki, M., and Nowicki, A. (2013a). Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS) – the hydrodynamic part. Oceanologia, 55(3), 519–541.10.5194/gmdd-5-1851-2012
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
24. Dzierzbicka–Głowacka, L., Jakacki, J., Janecki, M., and Nowicki, A. (2013b). Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS) – the ecosystem module. Oceanologia, 55(3), 543–572.10.5194/gmdd-5-1851-2012
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
25. Nowicki, A., Dzierzbicka–Głowacka, L., Janecki, M., Kałas, M. (2015). Assimilation of the satellite SST data in the 3D CEMBS model. Oceanologia, 57(1), 17–24.10.1016/j.oceano.2014.07.001
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
26. Nowicki, A., Janecki, M., Dzierzbicka–Głowacka, L., Darecki, M., Piotrowski, P. (2016). The Use of Satellite Data in the Operational 3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea (3D CEMBS). Polish Maritime Research, 23(1), 20–24.10.1515/pomr-2016-0003
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
27. Woźniak, B., Bradtke, K., Darecki, M., Dera, J., Dudzińska–Nowak, J., Dzierzbicka–Głowacka, L., Ficek, D., Furmańczyk, K., et al. (2011a). SatBałtyk – a Baltic environmental satellite remote sensing system – an ongoing project in Poland. Part 1: Assumptions, scope and operating range. Oceanologia, 53(4), 897–924.10.5697/oc.53-4.897
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
28. Woźniak, B., Bradtke, K., Darecki, M., Dera, J., Dudzińska–Nowak, J., Dzierzbicka–Głowacka, L., Ficek, D., Furmańczyk, K., et al. (2011b). SatBałtyk – a Baltic environmental satellite remote sensing system – an ongoing project in Poland. Part 2: Practical applicability and preliminary results. Oceanologia, 53(4), 925–958.10.5697/oc.53-4.925
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
29. Krężel, A., Bradtke, K., Herman, A. (2015). Use of Satellite Data in Monitoring of Hydrophysical Parameters of the Baltic Sea Environment. Polish Maritime Research, 22(3), 36–42.10.1515/pomr-2015-0054
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
30. Karvonen, J., Simila, M. (2007). SAR–Based Estimation of the Baltic Sea Ice Motion. Proceedings of the International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium IGARSS, 2605–2608.10.1109/IGARSS.2007.4423378
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
31. Donlon, C.J., Martin, M., Stark, J., Roberts–Jones, J., Fiedler, E., Wimmer, W. (2012). The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system. Remote Sensing of Environment, 116, 140–158.10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.017
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
32. HELCOM. (1996). Third Periodic Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea, 1989–1993. Background document. Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings, 64B.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
33. HELCOM. (2010). Maritime Activities in the Baltic Sea – An integrated thematic assessment on maritime activities and response to pollution at sea in the Baltic Sea Region. Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings, 123.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
34. Parkinson, C.L., Cavalieri, D.J., Gloersen, P., Zwally, H.J., Comiso, J.C. (1999). Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978–1996. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(C9), 20837–20856.10.1029/1999JC900082
Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Numerical Simulations of Sea Ice Conditions in the Baltic Sea for 2010–2016 Winters Using the 3D CEMBS Model

Abstract

Paradigm

My account