Expert judgement-based tuning of the system reliability neural network

Brandowski, A.; Nguyen, Hoang; Frąckowiak, Wojciech

doi:10.2478/pomr-2014-0005

Abstract

The neural network tuning procedure applied to reliability analyses of anthrop technical systems, based on judgements of experts - experienced operating practicians. Numerical and linguistic elicitation of the judgements, analyses of the network input and output data correlation and of the AHP method processing deviation are presented. Example of data elicitation and correlation analysis of a reliability arrangement of the seagoing ship propulsion system are included to the article.

References

1. Brandowski A.: Estimation of the Probability of Propulsion Loss by a Seagoing Ship Based on Expert Opinions. Polish Maritime Research. 59. 73-77, 2009.10.2478/v10012-008-0013-9
Search in Google Scholar
2. Brandowski A., Mielewczyk A., Nguyen H., Frackowiak W.: Certain propulsion risk prediction model of a seagoing ship. Proceedings of ESREL 2010 Conference. Rhodes: CRS PRESS / BALKEMA, 42-48, 2010.
Search in Google Scholar
3. Brandowski A., Mielewczyk A., Nguyen H., Frackowiak W.: A fuzzy - neuron model of the ship propulsion risk prediction. Szczecin - Świnoujście: Journal of KONBiN, 2010.
Search in Google Scholar
4. Cooke R. M.: Experts in Uncertainty. New York, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.
Search in Google Scholar
5. Elliot M. A.: Selecting numerical scales for pairwise comparisons. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 95, 750-763, 2010.10.1016/j.ress.2010.02.013
Search in Google Scholar
6. Gniedienko B. W., Bielajew J. K., Sołowiew A. D.: Mathematical methods in the reliability theory (in Polish). Warszawa: Wydawnictwa Naukowo-Techniczne, 1968.
Search in Google Scholar
7. IMO - Resolution A. 849(20).: Code for the investigation of marine casualties and incidents. London: IMO, 1997.
Search in Google Scholar
8. Jaźwiński J., Smalko Z.: The use of expert method for estimation of the beta distribution parameters for evaluation of nondelectability and safety of technical means of transport (in Polish). Radom: Wyd. Instytutu Technologii Eksploatacji, 2001.
Search in Google Scholar
9. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (edited by: Kahneman G., Slovic P., Tversky A.). Cambridge University Press, 2001.
Search in Google Scholar
10. Kwiesielewicz M.: Analytical hierarchical decision process. Non-fuzzy and fuzzy pairwise comparison (in Polish). Warsaw: System Research Institute PAN, 2002.
Search in Google Scholar
11. Modarres M., Kaminskiy M., Krivtsov: Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis. New York, Basel: Marcel Dekker Inc, 1999.
Search in Google Scholar
12. Saaty T.L.: The analytic hierarchy process. New York: McGraw Hill, 1980.
Search in Google Scholar
13. Stanisz A.: Intelligible course of statistics. Vol. 1 (in Polish). Cracow: StatSoft, 2006.
Search in Google Scholar
14. Yucheng Dong, Yinfeng Xu, Hongyi Li, Min Dai.: A comparative study of the numerical scales and the prioritization methods in AHP. European Journal of Operational Research 186, 226-242, 2008. 10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.044
Search in Google Scholar

Expert judgement-based tuning of the system reliability neural network

Abstract

Paradigm

My account