Sources and patterns of uncertainty in construction MSMEs: A machine learning study in southwestern Colombia
References
- Ali, Z., Zhu, F., & Hussain, S. (2018). Identification and assessment of uncertainty factors that influence the transaction cost in public sector construction projects in Pakistan. Buildings, 8(11), p. 157. doi: 10.3390/buildings8110157
- Araque González, G. A., García Arango, D. A., Aguirre Mesa, E. D., Henao Villa, C. F., Echeverry Gutiérrez, C. A., & Sidek, S. (2019). The Planning in Lean Construction Methodology At Colombian Civil Sector. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering, 8(1S5), pp. 1–6. Available at: https://www.ijrte.org/portfolio-item/A00320681S519 (Accessed: 19 October 2025).
- Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, 45(1), pp. 5-32. doi: 10.1023/A:1010933404324
- CAMACOL and SENA (2021). Proyecto de Investigacion del sector de la construcción en Edificaciones en Colombia. Available at: https://camacol.co/descargable/proyecto-investigati-vo-del-sector-de-la-construccion.
- CAMACOL (2022) ¿Por qué afiliarse?, Camara Regional de la Construcción Valle. Available at: https://camacolvalle.org.co/corporativo/por-que-afiliarse/(Accessed: 19 December 2024).
- Cardona-Almeida, C., Cerro-Amell, R., Mendoza-Navarro, S. P., Santos-Rocha, A. C., Zuluaga-Gómez, A., Batista-Morales, A., et al. (2022). Roads of the Caribbean: Regional analysis from environmental impact assessments in Colombia. Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 57, pp. 169-183. doi: 10.12775/bgss-2022-0030
- Castañeda, K., Sánchez, O., Herrera, R. F., & Mejía, G. (2025). Deficiencies causes in road construction scheduling: Perspectives from construction professionals. Heliyon, 11(2), p. e41514. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e41514
- Charles, M. H. (2024). Strategic offending: Colombia’s part-time child drug traffickers and their community, city and country lines. Youth Justice, 24(2), pp. 289-312. doi: 10.1177/14732254231214245
- Chen, S., Eyers, D. R., Gosling, J., & Huang, Y. (2025). Supply chain risks for SMEs in construction projects: A structured literature review and research agenda. The International Journal of Logistics Management, 36(3), pp. 747-774. doi: 10.1108/IJLM-12-2023-0548
- Cochran, W. G. (1977). Sampling Techniques. New York: Wiley.
- Cuadros, A., Soto, D.R. and Orobio, A. (2019). Construction project scheduling evaluation considering correlated risk analysis. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 607-608. Available at: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record. uri?eid=2-s2.0-85079269291&partnerlD=40&md5=64b0af-598d69867e2ca561bbed6f5a1e.
- Erol, H., Dikmen, I., Atasoy, G., & Birgonul, M. T. (2022). An analytic network process model for risk quantification of mega construction projects. Expert Systems with Applications, 191, p. 116215. doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2021.116215
- Fernández, F. (2022). Coping with extortion: On violence, parasites, and water infrastructures in Buenaventura, Colombia. Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 4(3), pp. 296-309. doi: 10.31389/jied.124
- Forteza, F. J., Carretero-Gómez, J. M., Estudillo, B., & Sesé, A. (2023). From risk assessment on site to how to improve safety: An easy “App” to control construction site conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(5), p. 3954. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20053954
- Hazr, Ö, & Ulusoy, G. (2020). A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects. International Journal of Production Economics, 223, p. 107522. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107522
- Khalife, S., Shehab, L., & Hamzeh, F. (2024). Employing simulation to assess value alignment and fulfillment within construction project settings and team dynamics. Automation in Construction, 163, p. 105450. doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2024.105450
- Kuchta, D., & Zabor, A. (2022). Fuzzy modelling and control of project cash flows. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 42(1), pp. 155-168. doi: 10.3233/JIFS-219183
- Li, X., Fei, Y., Rizzuto, T. E., & Yang, F. (2021). What are the occupational hazards of construction project managers: A data mining analysis in China. Safety Science, 134, p. 105088. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2020.105088
- Luan, J., Zhang, C., Xu, B., Xue, Y., & Ren, Y. (2020). The predictive performances of random forest models with limited sample size and different species traits. Fisheries Research, 227, p. 105534. doi: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105534
- Luo, C., Zhao, M., Fu, X., Zhong, S., Fu, S., Zhang, K., et al. (2025). Thermodynamic simulation-assisted random forest: Towards explainable fault diagnosis of combustion chamber components of marine diesel engines. Measurement: Journal of the International Measurement Confederation, 251, p. 117252. doi: 10.1016/j.measurement.2025.117252
- Mahboob, A., Rathnasinghe, A., Ekanayake, A., & Tennakoon, P. (2024). Evaluating BIM’s role in transforming cash flow forecasting among construction SMEs: A Saudi Arabian narrative. Sustainability, 16(23), p. 10221. doi: 10.3390/su162310221
- Martinsuo, M., Vuorinen, L., & Killen, C. P. (2024). Project portfolio formation as an organizational routine: Patterns of actions in implementing innovation strategy. International Journal of Project Management, 42(4), p. 102592. doi: 10.1016/j. ijproman.2024.102592
- Mattiace, S., & Alberti, C. (2024). Indigenous autonomy and Latin American state security in contexts of criminal violence: The cases of Cauca in Colombia and Guerrero in Mexico. Latin American and Caribbean Ethnic Studies, 19(2), pp. 262-272. doi: 10.1080/17442222.2022.2156260
- Megantara, A.A. and Ahmad, T. (2020). Feature Importance Ranking for Increasing Performance of Intrusion Detection System. In: 2020 3rd International Conference on Computer and Informatics Engineering (IC2IE), pp. 37-42. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1109/IC2IE50715.2020.9274570.
- Nepomuceno, L. and Elafi, O. (2024). Socio-political risk in the Latin American construction industry. In: AIP Conference Proceedings. 3125, p. 040003. Available at: https://doi. org/10.1063/5.0214688.
- Ovalle, O. R., Correa-Cepeda, D., Estrada-Cifuentes, J. P., & Mopan, Y. A. (2024). Analysis and prioritisation of critical delay factors in construction projects: A Colombian case. Organization, Technology and Management in Construction: an International Journal, 16(1), pp. 237-250. doi: 10.2478/otmcj-2024-0017
- Schröer, C., Kruse, F., & Gómez, J. M. (2021). A systematic literature review on applying CRISP-DM process model. In: Maria Manuela Cruz-Cunha, Ricardo Martinho, Rui Rijo, Nuno Mateus-Coelh, Dulce Domingos & Emanuel Peres (eds.). Procedia Computer Science. Lisbon, Portugal: Elsevier B.V, pp. 526-534. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.199
- Shabani, R., Ishtiaque, T. A., Johansen, A., Torp, O., & Farsani, D. (2023). Uncertainty management in the design phase of road projects. In: Ricardo Martinho, Rui Rijo & Maria Manuela Cruz-Cunha (eds.). Procedia Computer Science. Lisbon, Portugal: Elsevier B.V, pp. 1969-1976. doi: 10.1016/j. procs.2023.01.497
- Soto-Ferrari, M., & Chams-Anturi, O. (2023). EcoMCS: A project management application through management control systems for residential construction firms in Colombia. Operations and Supply Chain Management, 16(2), pp. 254-264. doi: 10.31387/oscm0530387
- Ulupui, I. G. K. A., Zairin, G. M., Musyaffi, A. M., & Sutanti, F. D. (2024). Navigating uncertainties: A tri-factorial evaluation of risk management adoption in MSMEs. Cogent Business and Management, 11(1), p. 2311161. doi: 10.1080/23311975.2024.2311161
- Wang, Z., Peng, L., & Kim, J. K. (2022). Bootstrap inference for the finite population mean under complex sampling designs. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 84(4), pp. 1150-1174. doi: 10.1111/rssb.12506
Language: English
Page range: 64 - 81
Submitted on: Sep 9, 2025
Accepted on: Jan 7, 2026
Published on: May 26, 2026
Published by: University of Zagreb
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
Related subjects:
© 2026 Cristian David Tobar Montilla, Mariela Muñoz-Añasco, Adriana M. Nieto-Muñoz, Elvia Ruiz-Beltran, published by University of Zagreb
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.