Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Analysis of schedule performance for eight delayed major work packages_
| Serial no. | Package name | Equipment supply schedule | Erection activity schedule | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest allowable date | Actual date | Delay, in months | Latest allowable date | Actual date | Delay, in months | ||
| 1 | Primary reformer | 30 May 2012 | 21 November 2012 | 6 | 14 July 2012 | 15 November 2012 | 5 |
| 2 | Process air compressor | 28 March 2012 | 20 June 2012 | 3 | 2 October 2012 | 31 December 2012 | 3 |
| 3 | Secondary reformer | 13 April 2012 | 16 June 2012 | 2 | 29 October 2012 | 15 February 2013 | 4 |
| 4 | Cryogenic purifier | 16 April 2012 | 11 February 2012 | No delay | 29 October 2012 | 15 February 2013 | 4 |
| 5 | Refrigeration compressor | 3 April 2012 | 25 October 2012 | 6 | 29 October 2012 | 15 February 2013 | 4 |
| 6 | Electrical substation | 25 January 2012 | 3 August 2011 | No delay | 26 April 2012 | 19 September 2012 | 4 |
| 7 | Piping network | 5 March 2011 | 15 January 2011 | No delay | 3 September 2012 | 15 November 2012 | 3 |
| 8 | Insulation | 27 August 2011 | 15 December 2011 | 4 | 29 October 2012 | 24 February 2013 | 4 |
Setting thresholds for causal and observed variables_
| Serial no. | Variable | Scale | Setting thresholds and variable values |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fund management (Funds) | Dichotomous | ‘0’ for ineffective fund management resulting in delays (material procurement and labour sourcing) |
| 2 | Labour productivity (Labour) | Dichotomous | ‘0’ for low labour productivity resulting in either rework or delay in activity completion time |
| 3 | Activity sequencing (ActSeq) | Trichotomous | ‘0’ for no delay in equipment supply but delay in erection activities, resulting in overall delay in completing the work package |
| 4 | Supply sequencing (SupSeq) | Trichotomous | ‘0’ for delay in equipment supply for period equal to or more than the overall project delay of 4 months |
| 5 | Work package schedule performance (observed variable) | Dichotomous | ‘0’ for delay in package completion |
Completion status of the projects_
| Unit location | Month of approval | Original cost in equivalents of USD million (approx.) | Month of commissioning | Time overrun (months) | Cost overrun (percentage) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location 1 | January 2010 | 215.7 | January 2013 | Nil | Nil |
| Location 2 | January 2010 | 215.4 | January 2013 | Nil | Nil |
| Location 3 | January 2010 | 246.4 | April 2013 | 4 | Nil |
Comparison between the two EPC contractors_
| Comparison item | EPC contractor at Locations 1 and 2 | EPC contractor at Location 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Country experience | Large Indian conglomerate having many decades of country experience and multiple ongoing projects in the country at any point in time | Reputed international conglomerate with extensive global experience but limited Indian experience |
| Basic and detailed engineering capability | Good, worked on Haldor Topsoe technology prevalent in India | Excellent, vast international experience on KBR technology |
| Contract management systems | Robust systems, extensive experience in handling Indian public sector enterprises and domestic contractors | Good systems, relatively less experienced in Indian conditions |
| Project management systems | Robust project management systems, fine-tuned to the country context | Robust and conventional project management systems |
| Approach to resource management | Strength of available in-house erection staff and resources, lesser dependency on erection subcontractors | More dependent upon erection subcontractors |
Interpretive data table developed using case data and thresholds_
| Package ID | Package name | Fund management | Labour productivity | Activity sequencing | Supply sequencing | Observed variable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Primary reformer | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Secondary reformer | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | Process air compressor | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | Cryogenic purifier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5 | Refrigeration compressor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | HVAC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Gasification plant | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Electrical substation | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Piping network | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Insulation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Automation (E&I) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Multi-value truth table with contradictions_
| Fund management | Labour productivity | Activity sequencing | Supply sequencing | Observed variable | Package names |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Secondary reformer |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Process air compressor |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | C | Cryogenic purifier, HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation (E&I) |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | Electrical substation and Piping network |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Insulation |
Contradiction-free multi-value truth table_
| Fund management | Labour productivity | Activity sequencing | Supply sequencing | Technology stabilisation | Observed variable | Package names |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Secondary reformer |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Process air compressor |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Cryogenic purifier |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation (E&I) |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Electrical substation, Piping network |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Insulation |
Results of Boolean minimisation (using Tosmana software, version 1_302)_
| Explain observed variable | Terms | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ActSeq{0,2} + | SupSeq{0,1} + | Techstab{0} |
| (Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor + Electrical substation, Piping network) | (Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor + Secondary reformer + Process air compressor + Insulation) | (Cryogenic purifier) | |
| 1 | ActSeq{1}*SupSeq{2}*Techstab{1} | ||
| (HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation E&I) | |||
| 0 and 1 | Funds{0,1} | ||
| (Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor + Secondary reformer + Process air compressor + Cryogenic purifier + HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation E&I + Electrical substation, Piping network + Insulation) | |||