Abstract
In this study, climate data from the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 as well as scenarios for +2 °C and +3 °C global warming ("global warming level" gwl) were analyzed to find out what changes relevant to fruit growing can be expected in the Lungau region due to global warming. A favorable development due to climate change is already evident in the altitude level between 1000 and 1200 m, which is the most relevant for fruit growing, and this will continue assuming the gwl +2 °C scenario. The minimum temperatures in winter will rise by an average of 4.6 °C compared to 1961-90, which is why extreme winter frosts will no longer be a limiting factor for most types of fruit. The growing season will be on average 24 days longer than compared to 1961-90, which favors fruit ripening and also enables the cultivation of varieties with a longer development period. The slightly negative climatic water availability already observed in spring is increasing due to the temperatures in spring and summer being around 2 °C higher and can lead to heat and drought stress in trees in particularly dry years, which is why the choice of deep soils for fruit growing without additional irrigation is recommended in the future. In the gwl +2 °C scenario, the opportunities for extensive orchards in the region outweigh the risks. This opens up the potential for Lungau to develop into a "new Mostviertel" (author’s note: traditional Austrian perry growing region). Although 5 days less with <-2 °C are to be expected in April compared to 1961-90, the risk of frost damage remains or may even increase due to the vegetation start being around 14 days earlier and the inner-alpine location, especially in April. The seemingly favourable developments in the region caused by global warming will intensify under the assumption of the +3 °C scenario, but at the same time a further increase in extreme events is to be expected, which will significantly relativise the opportunities caused by climate change. In this respect, such a scenario cannot be considered desirable from a regional fruit growing perspective either.