Figure 1.
Odds-ratio results for models with universities per million inhabitants
| With Lima | Without Lima | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All households | Households comprising members with higher education | All households | Households comprising members with higher education | |||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| ccdd_univ_pm | 1.01759*** (0.00279) | 1.12569 (0.15495) | 1.01653** (0.00736) | 0.73716 (0.28488) | 1.01899*** (0.00289) | 1.06403 (0.16012) | 1.01886** (0.00759) | 0.86478 (0.35445) |
| ccdd_employment | 2766.937*** (3603.88400) | 10918.55*** (28106.05) | 1.94268 (6.70959) | 0.02760 (0.19322) | 12858.91*** (21430.55) | 26545.38*** (87638.40) | 61.36969 (240.43990) | 3.99559 (32.33698) |
| ccdd_univ_pm ## ccdd_employment | 0.89949 (0.13001) | 1.40072 (0.56800) | 0.95566 (0.15068) | 1.18749 (0.51037) | ||||
| head_age | 0.93459*** (0.00215) | 0.93458*** (0.00214) | 0.90706*** (0.00507) | 0.90713*** (0.00505) | 0.93932*** (0.00199) | 0.93932*** (0.00192) | 0.91039*** (0.00554) | 0.91048*** (0.00554) |
| head_educ | 1.04553*** (0.00736) | 1.04545*** (0.00736) | 0.98623 (0.02015) | 0.98650 (0.02016) | 1.06049*** (0.00653) | 1.06046*** (0.00653) | 1.00333 (0.01801) | 1.00355 (0.01804) |
| head_employment | 0.58603*** (0.03943) | 0.58600*** (0.03943) | 0.94201 (0.20368) | 0.94114 (0.20351) | 0.61578*** (0.04103) | 0.61580*** (0.04106) | 0.94458 (0.20147) | 0.94394 (0.20139) |
| dep_ratio | 0.50759*** (0.04655) | 0.50789*** (0.04659) | 0.43396*** (0.11279) | 0.43090*** (0.11240) | 0.62843*** (0.05365) | 0.62851*** (0.05366) | 0.87831 (0.23941) | 0.87559 (0.23955) |
| ln_income | 0.91117*** (0.03145) | 0.91097*** (0.03144) | 0.79935** (0.07627) | 0.79948** (0.07632) | 0.95237 (0.03128) | 0.95247 (0.03173) | 0.96708 (0.10191) | 0.96579 (0.10155) |
| ln_rent_expenditure | 1.11169*** (0.03265) | 1.11234*** (0.03277) | 1.43688*** (0.12525) | 1.43359*** (0.12262) | 1.06782** (0.02916) | 1.06800** (0.02916) | 1.21519** (0.09287) | 1.21408** (0.09312) |
| ccdd_rural | 0.63201*** (0.09926) | 0.64357*** (0.10060) | 0.98557 (0.42627) | 0.92070 (0.39555) | 0.71750** (0.11007) | 0.72039** (0.11095) | 1.06213 (0.43885) | 1.04383 (0.43583) |
| ccdd_water | 0.99950 (0.21648) | 1.00484 (0.22203) | 1.65523 (0.85832) | 1.57893 (0.82309) | 0.85703 (0.18483) | 0.86149 (0.18704) | 1.55745 (0.80951) | 1.52543 (0.79660) |
| ccdd_crime | 0.42264** (0.14889) | 0.43665** (0.15623) | 2.36848 (2.20126) | 2.16734 (2.06353) | 0.33938*** (0.12756) | 0.34267*** (0.12972) | 1.34993 (1.35003) | 1.30759 (1.33685) |
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Sample | 270,381 | 270,381 | 26,285 | 26,285 | 239,639 | 239,639 | 22,699 | 22,699 |
Model estimation results with the number of universities per million inhabitants, excluding Lima
| Without Lima | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All households | Households comprising members with higher education | |||||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| Odds Ratios – variables of interest | ||||||||
| ccdd_univ_pm | 1.019*** (.003) | 1.019*** (.003) | 1.064 (.160) | 1.019*** (.008) | 1.019*** (0.008) | .865 (.354) | ||
| ccdd_employment | 16500.63*** (28099.76) | 12858.91*** (21430.55) | 26545.38*** (87638.4) | 93.032 (372.544) | 61.370 (240.440) | 3.996 (32.337) | ||
| ccdd_univ_pm * ccdd_employment | .956 (.151) | 1.187 (.510) | ||||||
| Average Marginal Effects | ||||||||
| ccdd_univ_pm | .00034*** (.00005) | .00034*** (.00005) | .00038** (.00014) | .00037* (.00014) | ||||
| ccdd_employment | .17368*** (.03066) | .16910*** (.02999) | .08940 (.07838) | .08110 (.07664) | ||||
| head_age | −.00112*** (.00004) | −.00112*** (.00004) | −.00112*** (.00004) | −.00186*** (.00015) | −.00186*** (.00015) | −.00185*** (.00015) | ||
| head_educ | .00104*** (.00011) | .00106*** (.00011) | .00101*** (.00011) | .00007 (.00035) | .00009 (.00035) | .00007 (.00035) | ||
| head_employment | −.00843*** (.00118) | −.00880*** (.00121) | −.00867*** (.00122) | −.00080 (.00420) | −.00102 (.00420) | −.00112 (.00420) | ||
| dep_ratio | −.00815*** (.00154) | −.00826*** (.00154) | −.00830*** (.00154) | −.00245 (.00537) | −.00237 (.00539) | −.00256 (.00537) | ||
| ln_income | −.00077 (.00059) | −.00073 (.00060) | −.00088 (.00060) | −.00060 (.00208) | −.00053 (.00209) | −.00061 (.00207) | ||
| ln_rent_expenditure | .00110* (.00049) | .00118* (.00049) | .00117* (.00048) | .00380* (.00153) | .00388* (.00153) | .00339* (.00154) | ||
| ccdd_rural | .00122 (.00244) | −.00825** (.00273) | −.00593* (.00274) | .00480 (.00758) | −.00154 (.00814) | .00119 (.00815) | ||
| ccdd_water | −.00006 (.00390) | −.00067 (.00420) | −.00276 (.00384) | .00983 (.01030) | .01143 (.01121) | .00873 (.01021) | ||
| ccdd_crime | −.02105** (.00680) | −.01276 (.00658) | −.01931** (.00667) | .00470 (.01981) | .01374 (.01941) | .00591 (.01978) | ||
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Sample | 239,639 | 239,639 | 239,639 | 239,639 | 22,699 | 22,699 | 22,699 | 22,699 |
| Wald Test – Statistic | 111.04 | 107.64 | 107.20 | 23.50 | 23.35 | 22.40 | ||
| Wald Test – Pvalue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Sensitivity | 0.6981 | 0.5687 | 0.5870 | 0.7106 | 0.7050 | 0.7124 | ||
| Specificity | 0.8402 | 0.8163 | 0.8045 | 0.8326 | 0.8384 | 0.8323 | ||
| Correctly classified | 0.8368 | 0.8110 | 0.7999 | 0.8297 | 0.8352 | 0.8295 | ||
| AUC | 0.6939 | 0.6925 | 0.6958 | 0.7716 | 0.7717 | 0.7724 | ||
Model estimation results with high-quality universities per million inhabitants
| With Lima | Without Lima | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All households | Households comprising members with higher education | All households | Households comprising members with higher education | |||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| Odds Ratios – variables of interest | ||||||||
| ccdd_hquniv_pm | 1.00883 (.00551) | 1.76362* (.42924) | 1.02472 (.01415) | 3.15456 (1.93880) | 1.00679 (.00560) | 1.51493 (.39645) | 1.02565 (0.01474) | 2.17189 (1.39837) |
| ccdd_employment | 8489.087*** (11343.70000) | 334249.50*** (661539.80) | 10.67778 (37.84495) | 30282.80* (155374.50}) | 21476.780*** (36577.700) | 153989.80*** (320713.90) | 276.35070 (1097.77899) | 13048.570 (66789.360) |
| ccdd_hquniv_pm ## ccdd_employment | .55533* (.14235) | .30605 (.19799) | .65026 (.17918) | 0.45388 (0.30737) | ||||
| Average Marginal Effects | ||||||||
| ccdd_hquniv_pm | .00016 (.00010) | .00050 (.00029) | 0.00012 (0.00010) | 0.00045 (0.00028) | ||||
| ccdd_employment | .15950*** (.02325) | .04895 (.07272) | 0.17839*** (0.02999) | 0.11080 (0.07751) | ||||
| head_age | −.00119*** (.00049) | −.00202*** (.00016) | −0.00112*** (0.00004) | −0.00186*** (0.00015) | ||||
| head_educ | .00080*** (.00012) | −.00026 (.00040) | 0.00106*** (0.00011) | 0.00090 (0.00035) | ||||
| head_employment | −.00951*** (.00122) | −.00129 (.00448) | −0.00879*** (0.00122) | −0.00113 (0.00420) | ||||
| dep_ratio | −.01195*** (.00165) | −.01719** (.00552) | −0.00381*** (0.00154) | −0.00260 (0.00539) | ||||
| ln_income | −.00159** (.00061) | −.00466* (.00198) | −0.00075 (0.00060) | −0.00060 (0.00208) | ||||
| ln_rent_expenditure | .00178** (.00052) | .00731*** (.00184) | 0.00119* (0.00048) | 0.00371* (0.00155) | ||||
| ccdd_rural | −.00876** (.00273) | .00125 (.00877) | −0.00795** (0.00274) | 0.00087 (0.00815) | ||||
| ccdd_water | .00394 (.00457) | .02112 (.01335) | 0.00172 (0.00384) | 0.02108 (0.01346) | ||||
| ccdd_crime | −.01342* (.00652) | .01529 (.02077) | −0.01462** (0.00667) | 0.00612 (0.02069) | ||||
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Sample | 270.381 | 270.381 | 26.285 | 26.285 | 239.639 | 239.639 | 22.699 | 22.699 |
| Wald Test – Statistic | 79.98 | 27.00 | 101.92 | 22.15 | ||||
| Wald Test – Pvalue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| Sensitivity | 0.5506 | 0.6949 | 0.5656 | 0.7069 | ||||
| Specificity | 0.8239 | 0.8449 | 0.8161 | 0.8387 | ||||
| Correctly classified | 0.8182 | 0.8414 | 0.8108 | 0.8356 | ||||
| AUC | 0.6872 | 0.7699 | 0.6908 | 0.7728 | ||||
Variance Inflation Factor
| Variable | (1) VIF (all population) | (2) VIF (filtered & no Lima) | (3) VIF (all population) | (4) VIF (filtered & no Lima) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccdd_univ_pm | 1.20 | 1.22 | ||
| ccdd_hquniv_pm | 1.48 | 1.44 | ||
| head_age | 1.64 | 1.32 | 1.64 | 1.31 |
| head_educ | 1.76 | 1.46 | 1.76 | 1.46 |
| head_employment | 1.23 | 1.10 | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| dep_ratio | 1.25 | 1.07 | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| ln_income | 2.01 | 1.75 | 2.01 | 1.75 |
| ln_rent_exp | 2.46 | 1.93 | 2.48 | 1.94 |
| ccdd_rural | 2.53 | 1.94 | 2.44 | 1.90 |
| ccdd_water | 1.78 | 1.81 | 2.32 | 2.36 |
| ccdd_employment | 2.48 | 2.00 | 2.48 | 2.00 |
| ccdd_crime | 1.47 | 1.38 | 1.51 | 1.38 |
| year: 2016 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.81 |
| year: 2017 | 1.87 | 1.79 | 1.87 | 1.80 |
| year: 2018 | 1.96 | 1.86 | 1.98 | 1.88 |
| year: 2019 | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.93 | 1.82 |
| year: 2020 | 2.89 | 2.54 | 2.88 | 2.51 |
| year: 2021 | 2.47 | 1.90 | 2.47 | 2.10 |
| year: 2022 | 2.07 | 1.86 | 2.03 | 1.84 |
| Mean VIF | 2.00 | 1.74 | 2.05 | 1.78 |
Model estimation results with the number of universities per million inhabitants, including Lima
| With Lima | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All households | Households comprising members with higher education | |||||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| Odds Ratios – variables of interest | ||||||||
| ccdd_univ_pm | 1.021*** (0.003) | 1.018*** (.003) | 1.126 (.155) | 1.017*** (.007) | 1.017*** (.007) | .737 (.285) | ||
| ccdd_employment | 6049.902*** (7929.715) | 2766.937*** (3603.884) | 10918.55 ***(28106.05) | 4.343 (15.010) | 1.943 (6.710) | .028 (.193) | ||
| ccdd_univ_pm ## ccdd_employment | .899 (.130) | 1.401 (.568) | ||||||
| Average Marginal Effects | ||||||||
| ccdd_univ_pm | .00036*** (.00005) | .00031*** (.00005) | .00035* (.00015) | .00034* (.00015) | ||||
| ccdd_employment | .15353*** (.02278) | .13967*** (.02270) | .03037 (.07113) | .01373 (.07124) | ||||
| head_age | −.00119*** (.00005) | −.00120*** (.00005) | −.00119*** (.00000) | −.00202*** (.00016) | −.00202*** (.00016) | −.00202*** (.00016) | ||
| head_educ | .00079*** (.00012) | .00080*** (.00012) | .00078*** (.00012) | −.00029 (.00042) | −.00027 (.00042) | −.00029 (.00042) | ||
| head_employment | −.00917*** (.00122) | −.00952*** (.00122) | −.00942*** (.00122) | −.00122 (.00447) | −.00135 (.00448) | −.00123 (.00448) | ||
| dep_ratio | −.01184*** (.00165) | −.01191*** (.00165) | −.01195*** (.00165) | −.01725** (.00552) | −.01713** (.00552) | −.01726** (.00555) | ||
| ln_income | −.0014* (0.0001) | −.00156** (.00061) | −.00164** (.00061) | −.00460* (.00196) | −.00458* (.00198) | −.00463* (.00196) | ||
| ln_rent_expenditure | .00156** (.00052) | .00182** (.00052) | .00187*** (.00052) | .07461*** (.01883) | .00746*** (.00182) | .00749*** (.00182) | ||
| ccdd_rural | .00261 (.00236) | −.00949** (.00278) | −.00809** (.00279) | .00034 (.00757) | −.00175 (.00888) | −.00030 (.00895) | ||
| ccdd_water | .00055 (.00399) | .00111 (.00416) | −.00017 (.00385) | .01053 (.01089) | .01227 (.01157) | .01042 (.01078) | ||
| ccdd_crime | −.02467*** (.00631) | −.01074 (.00617) | −.01518* (.00615) | .01689 (.01907) | .02306 (.01934) | .01782 (.01943) | ||
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
| Sample | 270,381 | 270,381 | 270,381 | 26,285 | 26,285 | 26,285 | ||
| Wald Test – Statistic | 85.84 | 84.50 | 84.34 | 28.59 | 28.35 | 27.14 | ||
| Wald Test – Pvalue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Sensitivity | 0.5619 | 0.5522 | 0.5684 | 0.6981 | 0.6949 | 0.6981 | ||
| Specificity | 0.8184 | 0.8233 | 0.8131 | 0.8402 | 0.8454 | 0.8402 | ||
| Correctly classified | 0.8130 | 0.8177 | 0.8079 | 0.8368 | 0.8418 | 0.8368 | ||
| AUC | 0.6901 | 0.6877 | 0.6907 | 0.7691 | 0.7701 | 0.7691 | ||
Description of variables and descriptive statistics
| Variable | Description | Sample Mean | Sample Std Dev | Estimated Mean | Estimated Std Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | |||||
| migrant | Dichotomous variable that takes the value of 1 if the household has migrated to a different department, and 0 if it is not a migrant household | 0.024 | 0.152 | 0.023 | 0.001 |
| Main explanatory variables (Xji from the model shown previously) | |||||
| ccdd_univ_pm | Number of university campuses per million inhabitants in the department where the household is located | 16.076 | 8.037 | 14.159 | 0.075 |
| ccdd_hquniv_pm | Number of high-quality university campuses per million inhabitants in the department where the household is located | 3.454 | 4.934 | 4.328 | 0.055 |
| Household characteristics (c1 from the model shown previously) | |||||
| head_age | Age of the head of the household | 49.463 | 13.679 | 49.894 | 0.148 |
| head_educ | Years of education of the head of the household | 8.858 | 4.835 | 9.089 | 0.050 |
| head_employment | Dichotomous variable that takes the value of 1 if the head of the household is employed, and 0 otherwise | 0.868 | 0.338 | 0.849 | 0.004 |
| dep_ratio | Dependence ratio between the number of unemployed and employed household members | 0.356 | 0.233 | 0.345 | 0.002 |
| ln_income | Yearly log-income (PEN) | 10.351 | 0.788 | 10.452 | 0.008 |
| ln_rent_exp | Yearly rent log-expenditure (PEN). For households that do not pay rent or own their homes, we impute the estimated income that would be earned if the house were rented out | 7.684 | 1.155 | 7.908 | 0.0127 |
| Department characteristics (c2 from the model shown previously) | |||||
| ccdd_rural | Percentage of people residing in rural areas in the destination department | 0.257 | 0.192 | 0.198 | 0.003 |
| ccdd_water | Percentage of people with access to public network water supply in the destination department | 0.848 | 0.105 | 0.869 | 0.001 |
| ccdd_employment | Employment rate of the destination department | 0.947 | 0.027 | 0.936 | 0.000 |
| ccdd_crime | Percentage of population older than 14 that have been the victim of a crime in the destination department | 0.234 | 0.076 | 0.252 | 0.001 |
Odds ratio results for models with high quality universities per million inhabitants
| With Lima | Without Lima | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All households | Households comprising members with higher education | All households | Households comprising members with higher education | |||||
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| ccdd_hquniv_pm | 1.00883 (.00551) | 1.76362* (.42924) | 1.02472 (0.0141494) | 3.15456* (1.93880) | 1.00679 (0.00560) | 1.51493 (0.39645) | 1.02565* (0.01474) | 2.17189 (1.39837) |
| ccdd_employment | 8489.087*** (11343.700) | 334249.5*** (661539.8) | 10.67778 (37.84495) | 30282.8** (155374.5) | 21476.78*** (36577.7) | 153989.8*** (320713.9) | 276.35070 (1097.77900) | 13048.57* (66789.4) |
| ccdd_hquniv_pm ## ccdd_employment | .55533* (.14235) | 0.30605* (0.19799) | 0.65026 (0.17918) | 0.45381 (0.30737) | ||||
| head_age | .93448*** (.00214) | .93447*** (.00214) | 0.90709*** (0.00507) | 0.90693*** (0.00508) | 0.93909*** (0.00192) | 0.93906*** (0.00192) | 0.91011*** (0.00555) | 0.91001*** (0.00556) |
| head_educ | 1.04662*** (.00737) | 1.04634*** (.00737) | 0.98757 (0.02021) | 0.98673 (0.02247) | 1.06130*** (0.00553) | 1.06100*** (0.00553) | 1.00502 (0.01804) | 1.00430 (0.01806) |
| head_employment | .58301*** (.03915) | .58398*** (.03924) | 0.93960 (0.20311) | 0.94607 (0.20493) | 0.61184*** (0.04066) | 0.61273*** (0.04073) | 0.94451 (0.20131) | 0.94982 (0.20163) |
| dep_ratio | .50763*** (.04656) | .50728*** (.04652) | 0.43532*** (0.11345) | 0.43428*** (0.11303) | 0.62848*** (0.05364) | 0.62849*** (0.05361) | 0.87647 (0.23997) | 0.87721 (0.23988) |
| ln_income | .91382** (.03161) | .91359 (.03160) | 0.79810** (0.07630) | 0.79699** (0.07602) | 0.95879 (0.03198) | 0.95835 (0.03196) | 0.96982 (0.10266) | 0.96767 (0.10273) |
| ln_rent_expenditure | 1.10481** (.03243) | 1.06715* (.02955) | 1.42479*** (0.12209) | 1.43050*** (0.12171) | 1.06519** (0.02927) | 1.06722** (0.02955) | 1.20685** (0.09287) | 1.21224** (0.09307) |
| ccdd_rural | .60845** (.09474) | .59282** (.09174) | 1.06231 (0.45069) | 0.98286 (0.46769) | 0.64118*** (0.09856) | 0.64196*** (0.09818) | 1.00441 (0.41512) | 1.00690 (0.41240) |
| ccdd_water | 1.25070 (.32367) | 1.20696 (.31357) | 2.77830* (1.77982) | 2.66212* (1.70838) | 1.10064 (0.28926) | 1.07988 (0.28417) | 2.91389 (1.98477) | 2.82990 (1.92127) |
| ccdd_crime | .46701* (.17386) | .50528 (.18790) | 2.09499 (2.08826) | 2.56419 (2.56214) | 0.44147** (0.17005) | 0.46980* (0.18132) | 1.36419 (1.42652) | 1.56543 (1.65093) |
| Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Sample | 270,381 | 270,381 | 26,285 | 26,285 | 239,639 | 239,639 | 22,699 | 22,699 |