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Evaluating machine learning models for air quality error mapping in Kraków, Poland Cover

Evaluating machine learning models for air quality error mapping in Kraków, Poland

Open Access
|Jan 2026

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

The study location is marked with a red dot

Source: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, TomTom, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), swisstopo, MapmyIndia, and the GIS User Community

Figure 2.

Energy transformation and air pollution in Kraków: a) Yearly average PM2.5 level in Bujaka reference station; b) Coal furnaces and boilers removed as an outcome of PONE programme; c) Number of new renewable energy source installations Source: own study

Figure 3.

PM2.5 prediction error distribution on smog day (30 December at 23:00) for DLinear, XGBoost, and ARIMA models

Source: own study

Figure 4.

PM2.5 prediction error distribution on steady low pollution day (December 12th 10:00) for DLinear, XGBoost, and ARIMA models

Source: own study

Figure 5.

Map of DLinear model prediction errors for the smog event day on 30 December at 23:00 and the steady low pollution day of 12 December at 10:00 for DLinear, XGBoost, and ARIMA models with LCS locations (grey rectangle with number)

Source: own study

Figure 6.

The relative importance of meteorological factors across sensors with the highest errors – LCS 10; LCS 19, and LCS 37

Source: own study

Figure 7.

Hot-spot and cold-spot maps for PM2.5 error predictions using Getis-Ord Gi* for different models during smog event and low pollution days

Source: own study

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2025-0026 | Journal eISSN: 2084-6118 | Journal ISSN: 0867-6046 (formerly 2084-6118)
Language: English
Page range: 24 - 32
Submitted on: Nov 4, 2024
Accepted on: Apr 10, 2025
Published on: Jan 14, 2026
Published by: Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2026 Mateusz Zaręba, Szymon Cogiel, Elżbieta Węglińska, Tomasz Danek, published by Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.