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Potential impacts of summer temperatures in Iraq on the subsequent season's rainfall Cover

Potential impacts of summer temperatures in Iraq on the subsequent season's rainfall

Miscellanea Geographica
AHEAD OF PRINT
By: Ahmad Majid Abbas  
Open Access
|May 2025

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

Hypsometric map of Iraq with spatial distribution of meteorological stations used in the paperSource: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Water Resources, General Authority for Survey, Survey Department, 2021, and digital elevation model
Hypsometric map of Iraq with spatial distribution of meteorological stations used in the paperSource: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Water Resources, General Authority for Survey, Survey Department, 2021, and digital elevation model

Figure 2.

Average annual air temperatures in Iraq from 1978 to 2020 (a): Mean annual precipitation in Iraq from 1978–2020 (b)Source: adapted from Muslih & Abbas (2024)
Average annual air temperatures in Iraq from 1978 to 2020 (a): Mean annual precipitation in Iraq from 1978–2020 (b)Source: adapted from Muslih & Abbas (2024)

Figure 3.

Repetition of the opposite pattern resulting from the combination of increased temperature (maximum, minimum and average) with a decrease in total seasonal rainfall and vice versa in Iraq stations for 1974–2021Source: Based on data from Table 3
Repetition of the opposite pattern resulting from the combination of increased temperature (maximum, minimum and average) with a decrease in total seasonal rainfall and vice versa in Iraq stations for 1974–2021Source: Based on data from Table 3

Figure 4.

Repetition of a similar pattern resulting from the coupling of the temperature increase (maximum, minimum and average) with the rise in the total seasonal rainfall and vice versa at the stations of Iraq for 1974–2021Source: Based on data from Table 4
Repetition of a similar pattern resulting from the coupling of the temperature increase (maximum, minimum and average) with the rise in the total seasonal rainfall and vice versa at the stations of Iraq for 1974–2021Source: Based on data from Table 4

Figure 5.

Summer synoptic coupling patterns in Iraq for 1993 and 2010, (from left to right respectively). Pressure anomaly at sea level (hPa) (top panels); pressure height anomaly at 850 hPa (top second row panels); pressure height anomaly at 500 hPa (Third row panels from top); and wind speed anomaly (m/s) at 250 hPa (bottom panels).Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024
Summer synoptic coupling patterns in Iraq for 1993 and 2010, (from left to right respectively). Pressure anomaly at sea level (hPa) (top panels); pressure height anomaly at 850 hPa (top second row panels); pressure height anomaly at 500 hPa (Third row panels from top); and wind speed anomaly (m/s) at 250 hPa (bottom panels).Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

Figure 6.

Anomaly of the pressure rise of the 100 hPa level from the left for the summer of 1993 and from the right for the summer of 2010Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024
Anomaly of the pressure rise of the 100 hPa level from the left for the summer of 1993 and from the right for the summer of 2010Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

Figure 7.

synoptic coupling patterns for the rainy season in Iraq (1993/1994 and 2010/2011), from left to right respectively. Pressure anomaly at sea level (hPa) (top panels); pressure anomaly at 850 hPa (top second row panels); pressure anomaly at 500 hPa (top third row panels); and wind speed anomaly (m/s) at 250 hPa (bottom panels)Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024
synoptic coupling patterns for the rainy season in Iraq (1993/1994 and 2010/2011), from left to right respectively. Pressure anomaly at sea level (hPa) (top panels); pressure anomaly at 850 hPa (top second row panels); pressure anomaly at 500 hPa (top third row panels); and wind speed anomaly (m/s) at 250 hPa (bottom panels)Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

Figure 8.

Anomaly of the (100) (hPa) level from the left for the rainy season (1993/1994) and from the right for the rainy season (2010/2011)Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024
Anomaly of the (100) (hPa) level from the left for the rainy season (1993/1994) and from the right for the rainy season (2010/2011)Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

Details of the selected meteorological stations used in this study

StationLatitude (N)Longitude (E)Altitude (m asl)
Mosul36°19′43°09′222.6
Sulaimaniya35°32′45°27′843
Kirkuk35°28′44°24′330.8
Khanaqin34°35′45°38′175
Rutba33°02′40°17′615.5
Baghdad33°29′44°24′34.1
Hai32°10′46°03′17
Diwaniya31°59′44°59′20.4
Nasiriya31°01′46°14′3
Basrah30°34′47°47′2.4

Repetition of similar patterns resulting from the combination of the increase in temperature with the increase in total rainfall and vice versa in the stations of Iraq for 1974–2021

StationIncrease in temperature with increase in total rainfallDecrease in temperature with decrease in total rainfall
TmaxTminTmeanTmaxTminTmean
Mosul1168121111
Sulaimaniya10121381110
Kirkuk586121512
Khanaqin687101111
Rutba644131318
Baghdad786141312
Hai788121212
Diwaniya91411121213
Nasiriya10710131212
Basrah12711101110
Sum.838284116121121
Perc.33.432.933.732.433.833.8

Simple correlation between annual summer temperature rates and total seasonal rainfall for 1974–2021

StationTmaxTminTmean
Mosul−0.354**−0.347**−0.320*
Sulaimaniya−0.282*−0.179−0.138
Kirkuk−0.266*−0.231*−0.276*
Khanaqin−0.137−0.124−0.199*
Rutba−0.101−0.054−0.025
Baghdad−0.187−0.234*−0.191*
Hai−0.049−0.157−0.050
Diwaniya0.040−0.0750.010
Nasiriya−0.070−0.070−0.044
Basrah−0.226*−0.233*−0.215*

Characteristics of the years selected for interpretation during the summer and the following season in Iraq

YearTmaxTminTmeanRainfallYear class
Average annal temperatureGeneral averageAverage annual temperatureGeneral averageAverage annual temperatureGeneral averageAnnual rainfall rateGeneral average rainfall
199342.142.625.626.234.134.6379.6242.7Wet
201044.028.036.0224.8Dry

Recurrence of the opposite pattern resulting from the combination of increased temperature with decreased total rainfall and vice versa in Iraqi stations for 1974–2021

StationIncreased temperature with decreased rainfallDecreased temperature with increased rainfall
TmaxTminTmeanTmaxTminTmean
Mosul151616101513
Sulaimaniya151314151312
Kirkuk151215161315
Khanaqin161515161415
Rutba171712121414
Baghdad141516131214
Hai161616131212
Diwaniya12131315912
Nasiriya131414121515
Basrah151415111612
Sum.148145146133133134
Perc.33.733.033.333.2533.2533.5

Simple correlation between monthly summer temperature rates and total seasonal rainfall for 1974–2021

StationMaximum temperatureMinimum temperatureMean temperature
JunJulyAugustJunJulyAugustJunJulyAugust
Mosul−0.053−0.1630.063−0.363*−0.365*−0.272*−0.342*−0.047−0.121
Sulaimaniya−0.194−0.174−0.160−0.215−0.0990.147−0.200−0.1690.055
Kirkuk−0.146−0.165−0.101−0.337*−0.331*−0.165−0.223−0.201−0.090
Khanaqin−0.039−0.058−0.040−0.205−0.177−0.145−0.145−0.145−0.089
Rutba−0.1590.058−0.1380.1390.0610.073−0.1030.050−0.026
Baghdad−0.223−0.184−0.155−0.011−0.019−0.095−0.256*−0.195−0.130
Hai−0.158−0.1050.029−0.107−0.0840.008−0.124−0.1260.006
Diwaniya−0.1940.0840.1920.1040.0120.126−0.140−0.0930.039
Nasiriya−0.258*−0.254*0.124−0.075−0.097−0.036−0.292*−0.272*−0.187
Basrah−0.318*−0.188−0.223−0.162−0.122−0.055−0.263*−0.213−0.220

The amount of annual change in maximum, minimum and average temperatures at a significance level of 99%, and the seasonal change in rainfall after a significance level of 95% with a bold line and the one below it with a line at a level of 90%)

StationTmaxTminTmeanRainfall
Mosul0.0350.0550.033−1.015
Sulaimaniya0.0460.0420.028−1.909
Kirkuk0.0580.0930.071−2.804
Khanaqin0.0820.0840.081−2.245
Rutba0.0530.0800.087−0.680
Baghdad0.0570.0910.073−0.464
Hai0.0630.0850.067−0.910
Diwaniya0.0580.1030.067−0.509
Nasiriya0.0830.1030.067−0.834
Basrah0.1370.1060.120−1.360
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2025-0009 | Journal eISSN: 2084-6118 | Journal ISSN: 0867-6046
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Language: English
Submitted on: Oct 25, 2024
Accepted on: Jan 24, 2025
Published on: May 30, 2025
Published by: Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year
Keywords:
Opposite pattern,
symmetric pattern,
correlation,
synoptic coupling
Related subjects:
Geosciences,
Geography,
Geosciences, other

© 2025 Ahmad Majid Abbas, published by Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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