Potential impacts of summer temperatures in Iraq on the subsequent season's rainfall

Station	Latitude (N)	Longitude (E)	Altitude (m asl)
Mosul	36°19′	43°09′	222.6
Sulaimaniya	35°32′	45°27′	843
Kirkuk	35°28′	44°24′	330.8
Khanaqin	34°35′	45°38′	175
Rutba	33°02′	40°17′	615.5
Baghdad	33°29′	44°24′	34.1
Hai	32°10′	46°03′	17
Diwaniya	31°59′	44°59′	20.4
Nasiriya	31°01′	46°14′	3
Basrah	30°34′	47°47′	2.4

[i] Source: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Transport, Iraqi Meteorological Authority, Climate Department, unpublished data, 2024

Hypsometric map of Iraq with spatial distribution of meteorological stations used in the paper
Source: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Water Resources, General Authority for Survey, Survey Department, 2021, and digital elevation model

Average annual air temperatures in Iraq from 1978 to 2020 (a): Mean annual precipitation in Iraq from 1978–2020 (b)
Source: adapted from Muslih & Abbas (2024)

Table 2.

The amount of annual change in maximum, minimum and average temperatures at a significance level of 99%, and the seasonal change in rainfall after a significance level of 95% with a bold line and the one below it with a line at a level of 90%)

Station	T_max	T_min	T_mean	Rainfall
Mosul	0.035	0.055	0.033	−1.015
Sulaimaniya	0.046	0.042	0.028	−1.909
Kirkuk	0.058	0.093	0.071	−2.804
Khanaqin	0.082	0.084	0.081	−2.245
Rutba	0.053	0.080	0.087	−0.680
Baghdad	0.057	0.091	0.073	−0.464
Hai	0.063	0.085	0.067	−0.910
Diwaniya	0.058	0.103	0.067	−0.509
Nasiriya	0.083	0.103	0.067	−0.834
Basrah	0.137	0.106	0.120	−1.360

[i] Source: Statistical package Mann–Kendall Test. A bold number indicates that the statistical relationship is significant at the level of 0.05. A bold number with a line below indicates that the statistical relationship is significant at the level of 0.01.

Table 3:

Recurrence of the opposite pattern resulting from the combination of increased temperature with decreased total rainfall and vice versa in Iraqi stations for 1974–2021

Station	Increased temperature with decreased rainfall			Decreased temperature with increased rainfall
Station	T_max	T_min	T_mean	T_max	T_min	T_mean
Mosul	15	16	16	10	15	13
Sulaimaniya	15	13	14	15	13	12
Kirkuk	15	12	15	16	13	15
Khanaqin	16	15	15	16	14	15
Rutba	17	17	12	12	14	14
Baghdad	14	15	16	13	12	14
Hai	16	16	16	13	12	12
Diwaniya	12	13	13	15	9	12
Nasiriya	13	14	14	12	15	15
Basrah	15	14	15	11	16	12
Sum.	148	145	146	133	133	134
Perc.	33.7	33.0	33.3	33.25	33.25	33.5

[i] Source: Research based on data from the Ministry of Transport, Iraqi Meteorological Authority, Climate Department, unpublished data, 2021

Repetition of the opposite pattern resulting from the combination of increased temperature (maximum, minimum and average) with a decrease in total seasonal rainfall and vice versa in Iraq stations for 1974–2021
Source: Based on data from Table 3

Table 4.

Repetition of similar patterns resulting from the combination of the increase in temperature with the increase in total rainfall and vice versa in the stations of Iraq for 1974–2021

Station	Increase in temperature with increase in total rainfall			Decrease in temperature with decrease in total rainfall
Station	T_max	T_min	T_mean	T_max	T_min	T_mean
Mosul	11	6	8	12	11	11
Sulaimaniya	10	12	13	8	11	10
Kirkuk	5	8	6	12	15	12
Khanaqin	6	8	7	10	11	11
Rutba	6	4	4	13	13	18
Baghdad	7	8	6	14	13	12
Hai	7	8	8	12	12	12
Diwaniya	9	14	11	12	12	13
Nasiriya	10	7	10	13	12	12
Basrah	12	7	11	10	11	10
Sum.	83	82	84	116	121	121
Perc.	33.4	32.9	33.7	32.4	33.8	33.8

[i] Source: Research based on data from the Ministry of Transport, Iraqi Meteorological Authority, Climate Department, unpublished data, 2021

Repetition of a similar pattern resulting from the coupling of the temperature increase (maximum, minimum and average) with the rise in the total seasonal rainfall and vice versa at the stations of Iraq for 1974–2021
Source: Based on data from Table 4

Table 5.

Simple correlation between annual summer temperature rates and total seasonal rainfall for 1974–2021

Station	T_max	T_min	T_mean
Mosul	−0.354^**	−0.347^**	−0.320^*
Sulaimaniya	−0.282^*	−0.179	−0.138
Kirkuk	−0.266^*	−0.231^*	−0.276^*
Khanaqin	−0.137	−0.124	−0.199^*
Rutba	−0.101	−0.054	−0.025
Baghdad	−0.187	−0.234^*	−0.191^*
Hai	−0.049	−0.157	−0.050
Diwaniya	0.040	−0.075	0.010
Nasiriya	−0.070	−0.070	−0.044
Basrah	−0.226^*	−0.233^*	−0.215^*

Source: Based on statistical programme SPSS V. 25. A bold number with a line under it and containing

* indicates that the statistical relationship is significant at the 0.05 level, and

** indicates significance at the 0.01 level.

Table 6.

Simple correlation between monthly summer temperature rates and total seasonal rainfall for 1974–2021

Station	Maximum temperature			Minimum temperature			Mean temperature
Station	Jun	July	August	Jun	July	August	Jun	July	August
Mosul	−0.053	−0.163	0.063	−0.363^*	−0.365^*	−0.272^*	−0.342^*	−0.047	−0.121
Sulaimaniya	−0.194	−0.174	−0.160	−0.215	−0.099	0.147	−0.200	−0.169	0.055
Kirkuk	−0.146	−0.165	−0.101	−0.337^*	−0.331^*	−0.165	−0.223	−0.201	−0.090
Khanaqin	−0.039	−0.058	−0.040	−0.205	−0.177	−0.145	−0.145	−0.145	−0.089
Rutba	−0.159	0.058	−0.138	0.139	0.061	0.073	−0.103	0.050	−0.026
Baghdad	−0.223	−0.184	−0.155	−0.011	−0.019	−0.095	−0.256^*	−0.195	−0.130
Hai	−0.158	−0.105	0.029	−0.107	−0.084	0.008	−0.124	−0.126	0.006
Diwaniya	−0.194	0.084	0.192	0.104	0.012	0.126	−0.140	−0.093	0.039
Nasiriya	−0.258^*	−0.254^*	0.124	−0.075	−0.097	−0.036	−0.292^*	−0.272^*	−0.187
Basrah	−0.318^*	−0.188	−0.223	−0.162	−0.122	−0.055	−0.263^*	−0.213	−0.220

[i] Source: Based on statistical programme SPSS V. 25. A bold number with a line under it and containing

[ii] (*) indicates that the statistical relationship is significant at the 0.05 level.

Table 7.

Characteristics of the years selected for interpretation during the summer and the following season in Iraq

Year	T_max		T_min		T_mean		Rainfall		Year class
Year	Average annal temperature	General average	Average annual temperature	General average	Average annual temperature	General average	Annual rainfall rate	General average rainfall
1993	42.1	42.6	25.6	26.2	34.1	34.6	379.6	242.7	Wet
2010	44.0	42.6	28.0	26.2	36.0	34.6	224.8	242.7	Dry

[i] Source: Republic of Iraq, Ministry of Transport, Iraqi Meteorological Authority, Climate Department, unpublished data, 2021

Summer synoptic coupling patterns in Iraq for 1993 and 2010, (from left to right respectively). Pressure anomaly at sea level (hPa) (top panels); pressure height anomaly at 850 hPa (top second row panels); pressure height anomaly at 500 hPa (Third row panels from top); and wind speed anomaly (m/s) at 250 hPa (bottom panels).
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

Anomaly of the pressure rise of the 100 hPa level from the left for the summer of 1993 and from the right for the summer of 2010
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

synoptic coupling patterns for the rainy season in Iraq (1993/1994 and 2010/2011), from left to right respectively. Pressure anomaly at sea level (hPa) (top panels); pressure anomaly at 850 hPa (top second row panels); pressure anomaly at 500 hPa (top third row panels); and wind speed anomaly (m/s) at 250 hPa (bottom panels)
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

Anomaly of the (100) (hPa) level from the left for the rainy season (1993/1994) and from the right for the rainy season (2010/2011)
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research 2024

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2025-0009 | Journal eISSN: 2084-6118 | Journal ISSN: 0867-6046 (formerly 2084-6118)

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Language: English

Page range: 105 - 117

Submitted on: Oct 25, 2024

Accepted on: Jan 24, 2025

Published on: May 30, 2025

Published by: Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

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© 2025 Ahmad Majid Abbas, published by Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 30 (2026): Issue 2 (April 2026)

Potential impacts of summer temperatures in Iraq on the subsequent season's rainfall

Figures & Tables

Table 1.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Table 2.

Table 3:

Figure 3.

Table 4.

Figure 4.

Table 5.

Table 6.

Table 7.

Figure 5.

Figure 6.

Figure 7.

Figure 8.

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