Probabilistic Characterisation of Service Lifetime of Ageing Infrastructures
By: J. Baroth, L. Zemite and R. Djakons
References
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel. (2024, September 18). New VUB chair to explore future-proof transport infrastructure: Chair Agile and Future-proof Infrastructure for Transport (A-FIT). https://www.vub.be/en/news/newvub-chair-explore-future-proof-transport-infrastructure
- University of Waterloo. (2004). NSERCUNENE Chair in risk-based life cycle management of engineering systems.
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology. (2021). SMARTer maintenance of road infrastructure. https://www.ntnu.edu/smartermaintenance
- Fondation Université Savoie Mont Blanc. (n.d.). Chaire Montagne, infrastructures, risques et environnement (MIRE) [Mountain infrastructure, risk, and environment]. https://www.fondation-usmb.fr/chairespartenariales/chaire-mire/
- Polytech Clermont. (n.d.). HEPHAESTUS training and research chair. https://sioulepatrimoine.fr/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/HEPHAESTUS.pdf
- Baroth, J., Michaud, V., Estevez, R., & Isaac, A. (2023, October 25–26). Remaining useful life of hydraulic steel structures under high-cycle fatigue [Conference paper]. 63rd ESReDA Seminar, Ispra, Italy, 25–26 October 2023. https://fondation-grenoble-inp.fr/nos-actions/chaire-medelia/
- MIAI Cluster, Université Grenoble Alpes. (2025, September 17). PRISM: Predictive risk-informed asset strategic management. https://prism.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/
- Chahrour, N., Nasr, M., Tacnet, J. M., & Bérenguer, C. (2021). Deterioration modeling and maintenance assessment using physics-informed stochastic Petri nets: Application to torrent protection structures. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 210, 107524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107524
- Ministère de l’Écologie, de l’Énergie, du Développement durable et de la Mer. (2010). Instruction technique pour la surveillance et l’entretien des ouvrages d’art (ITSEOA).
- Deutsches Institut für Normung. (1999). DIN 1076:1999-11: Ingenieurbauwerke im Zuge von Straßen und Wegen— Überwachung und Prüfung [Engineering structures in connection with roads— Inspection and test]. Beuth Verlag.
- Agredo Chávez, A., Gonzalez-Libreros, J., Wang, C., & Sas, G. (2024). Bridge condition index: A review of methodologies used in bridge management systems. In J. S. Jensen,
- D. M. Frangopol, & J. W. Schmidt (Eds.), Bridge maintenance, safety, management, digitalization and sustainability: Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS 2024) (pp. 1130–1137). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003483755-131
- Federal Highway Administration. (n.d.). LTBP InfoBridge. U.S. Department of Transportation. https://infobridge.fhwa.dot.gov/
- Michez, T., Peyras, L., Lambert, S., Reynaud, S., & Garcin, P. (2026). Qualitative modelling of failure scenarios for long linear transport infrastructures in mountain areas. Infrastructures, 11(2), 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures11020071
- Capacci, L., Biondini, F., & Frangopol, D. M. (2022). Resilience of aging structures and infrastructure systems with emphasis on seismic resilience of bridges and road networks: Review. Resilient Cities and Structures, 1(2), 23–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcns.2022.05.001
- Nirandjan, S., Koks, E. E., Ye, M., Pant, R., Van Ginkel, K. C. H., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2024). Review article: Physical vulnerability database for critical infrastructure hazard risk assessments – A systematic review and data collection. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(12), 4341–4368. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024
- Porter, K. A. (2021). A beginner’s guide to fragility, vulnerability, and risk. University of Colorado Boulder. https://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-beginners-guide.pdf
- Kennedy, R. P., Cornell, C. A., Campbell, R. D., Kaplan, S., & Perla, H. F. (1980). Probabilistic seismic safety study of an existing nuclear power plant. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 59(2), 315–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/0029-5493(80)90203-4
- Mohamed Nazri, F. (2018). Seismic fragility assessment for buildings due to earthquake excitation. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7125-6.
- Ghannoum, M., Imtiaz, A., Grange, S., Causse, M., Cornou, C., & Baroth, J. (2020). Behavior of a RC frame under differential seismic excitation. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 24(5), 705–726. https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2018.1453398
- Monette, P., Joly, P., Roux, V., & Thiry, J.-M. (2009, August 9–14). Longevity curves for probabilistic lifetime assessment [Conference paper]. 20th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology (SMiRT 20), Division 7, Paper 1684, Espoo, Finland.
- European Committee for Standardization. (2005). Eurocode 3: Design of steel structures—Part 1-9: Fatigue (EN 1993-1-9:2005).
- British Standards Institution. (2019). Guide to methods for assessing the acceptability of flaws in metallic structures (BS 7910:2019). https://doi.org/10.3403/30369478
- Thomas, O. O., Chouinard, L., & Langlois, S. (2022). Probabilistic fatigue fragility curves for overhead transmission line conductor-clamp assemblies. Frontiers in Built Environment, 8, Article 833167. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2022.833167
- Sharma, H., & Swamy, A. K. (2016). Development of probabilistic fatigue curve for asphalt concrete based on viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics. International Journal of Pavement Research and Technology, 9(4), 270–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijprt.2016.07.004
- Savin, O., Baroth, J., Badina, C., Charbonnier, S., & Bérenguer, C. (2021). Damage due to start-stop cycles of turbine runners under high-cycle fatigue. International Journal of Fatigue, 153, 106458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2021.106458
- Rocher, B., Schoefs, F., François, M., Salou, A., & Caouissin, A.-L. (2020). A two-scale probabilistic time-dependent fatigue model for offshore steel wind turbines. International Journal of Fatigue, 136, 105620. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2020.105620
- Shahid, C. S., Zainal, Z. A., Yusoff, N. I. M., Mohammad, N., Zamzuri, Z. H., & Widyatmoko, I. (2025). Stochastic-based pavement performance and deterioration models: A review of techniques and applications. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 120, 420–437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2025.02.033
- Harb, K., Baroth, J., Estevez, R., Isaac, A., & Michaud, V. (2025, March 20–21). Probabilistic fatigue analysis of mechanically welded structures [Conference presentation]. IIW Commission XIII Intermediate Meeting, Darmstadt, Germany.
- European Committee for Standardization. (2002). Eurocode: Basis of structural design (EN 1990:2002).
- Estes, A. C., Frangopol, D. M., & Foltz, S. D. (2004). Updating reliability of steel miter gates on locks and dams using visual inspection results. Engineering Structures, 26(3), 319–333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2003.10.007
- Kühn, B., Lukić, M., Nussbaumer, A., Günther, H.-P., Helmerich, R., Herion, S., … & Bucak, Ö. (2008). Assessment of existing steel structures: Recommendations for estimation of remaining fatigue life (EUR 23252 EN; JRC43401). Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/lpts-2026-0035 | Journal eISSN: 2255-8896 (formerly 0868-8257) | Journal ISSN: 0868-8257
Language: English
Page range: 33 - 45
Published online: Sep 21, 2026
Published in print: Oct 1, 2026
Published by: Institute of Physical Energetics
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Related subjects:
© 2026 J. Baroth, L. Zemite, R. Djakons, published by Institute of Physical Energetics
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.