Modeling the Impact of Geopolitical Conflict on EU Transport Flows
By: Maryna Konovalova and Tatiana Čorejová
References
- Yatsenko, O., Nitsenko, V., Mardani, A. & Tananaiko, T. (2018). The impact of global risks on the world trade and economic environment. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice 4(27), 435–444. DOI: 10.18371/fcaptp.v4i27.154279.
- Nesheva-Kiosseva, N.I. (2018). Water-Related Price Risks: Implications for Company Competitiveness. In A. Presenza & L.R. Sheehan (Eds.), Geopolitics and Strategic Management in the Global Economy (pp. 194-218). USA: IGI Global.
- Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M. (2024, January). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. International Finance Discussion Papers, 1222. Retrieved April 08, 2025, from https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm
- Gupta, R., Gozgor, G., Kaya, H. & Demir, E. (2019). Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: Evidence from the gravity model. Eurasian Economic Review 9(4), 515–530. DOI: 10.1007/s40822-018-0118-0.
- Dedeoğlu, D., Öğüt, K. & Pişkin, A. (2019, January). Governance quality, geopolitical risk and foreign direct investment: Evidence from developing countries. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar 56(650), 51–69. Retrieved April 02, 2025, from http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/sayi/650
- KPMG (2024, May). Managing today’s geopolitical risks. Retrieved April 08, 2025, from https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmgsites/xx/pdf/2024/05/managing-todays-geopolitical-risks.pdf
- Eurostat (2023, May). EU trade with Russia – latest developments. European Commission. Statistics Explained. Retrieved December 10, 2024, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_trade_with_Russia_-_latest_developments&oldid=657062
- European Council (2023, September). Russia’s war against Ukraine. Retrieved December 20, 2025, from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/topics/russia-s-war-against-ukraine/
- Pollins, B. (1989). Conflict, cooperation, and commerce: The effect of international political interactions on bilateral trade flows. American Journal of Political Science 33, 737. DOI: 10.2307/2111070.
- Barbieri, K. & Levy, J.S. (1999). Sleeping with the enemy: The impact of war on trade. Journal of Peace Research 36(4), 463–479. DOI: 10.1177/0022343399036004005.
- Anderton, C.H. & Carter, J.R. (2001). The impact of war on trade: An interrupted time-series study. Journal of Peace Research 38(4), 445–457. DOI: 10.1177/0022343301038004003.
- Nitsch, V. & Schumacher, D. (2004). Terrorism and international trade: an empirical investigation. European Journal of Political Economy 20(2), 423–433. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2003.12.009.
- Martin, P., M., Thoenig, M. & & Mayer, T. (2008). Make Trade not War? Review of Economic Studies 75. 865-900. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00492.x.
- Qureshi, M. (2013). Trade and thy neighbor’s war. Journal of Development Economics 105(C), 178–195. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.009.
- Pham, C. & Doucouliagos, C. (2017, April). An injury to one is an injury to all: Terrorism’s spillover effects on bilateral trade. IZA Discussion Papers, 10859. Retrieved December 11, 2024, from https://docs.iza.org/dp10859.pdf
- To, W.M. & Lee, P.K.C. (2024). Modeling of the COVID-19 impact on air passenger traffic in the US, European countries, and China. Journal of Air Transport Management 115, 102556. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102556.
- Masoud Zadmehr, Robert K. Perrons & Kevin C. Desouza. (2026). The impact of geopolitical risks on the dynamic capabilities of Big Oil. Energy Research & Social Science 134, 104612. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104612.
- Liu, K. & Fu, Q. (2024). How does geopolitical risk affect international freight? Journal of Air Transport Management 118, 102614. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102614.
- Tsamboulas, D. (2010). Terrorism and the threat to multimodal transport – an overview. In Security, Environment, and Sustainable Multimodal Transport, 3–21. DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8563-4_1.
- Guzhva, V.S. & Pagiavlas, N. (2004). US commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences. Journal of Air Transport Management 10(5), 327–332. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.05.002.
- Smyrnov, I. (2025). The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Global Supply Chains. Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Management. 10. 582-589. DOI: 10.52783/jisem.v10i12s.1866.
- Li, Y., Xia, X., Wang, Y. & Huang, Q. (2026). Geopolitical Risk and Shipping Supply Chain Resilience: Systemic Characteristics, Impact Mechanisms, and the Security of Logistics Nodes. Systems 14(4), 427. DOI: 10.3390/systems14040427.
- Bove, V., Di Salvatore, J. & Nisticò, R. (2023). Economic sanctions and trade flows in the neighborhood. The Journal of Law and Economics 66, 671–697. DOI: 10.1086/725678.
- Chow, G.C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica 28(3), 591–605. DOI: 10.2307/1910133.
- Eurostat. (2025, July). Road freight transport [road_go_ta_tott]. European Commission. Retrieved September 15, 2025, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_go_ta_tott/default/table?lang=en
- Eurostat. (2025, June). Maritime freight transport [mar_qg_qm_ewhd]. European Commission. Retrieved September 27, 2025, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/mar_qg_qm_ewhd/default/table?lang=en
- Eurostat. (2025, October). International intra-EU freight and mail air transport by reporting country and EU partner country [avia_goincc]. European Commission. Retrieved October 28, 2025, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/avia_goincc/default/table?lang=en
- Eurostat. (2025, October). International extra-EU freight and mail air transport between reporting and partner world regions and countries by type of schedule (from 2008 and onwards) [avia_goexcc]. European Commission. Retrieved October 28, 2025, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/avia_goexcc/default/table?lang=en
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/logi-2026-0012 | Journal eISSN: 2336-3037
Language: English
Page range: 128 - 139
Submitted on: Nov 13, 2025
Accepted on: Jun 20, 2026
Published on: Jul 8, 2026
Published by: Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
Related subjects:
© 2026 Maryna Konovalova, Tatiana Čorejová, published by Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.