Modeling the Impact of Geopolitical Conflict on EU Transport Flows

This paper analyzes the impact of the Russia–Ukraine geopolitical conflict on transport flows within the European Union during the period 2020–2024. The research is based on Eurostat data and an aggregated Geopolitical Risk Index, aiming to identify structural changes in the volumes of road, water, and air transport following the escalation of the conflict in 2022. The Chow test was applied to verify the existence of structural breaks, while the Bai–Perron test was used to identify multiple breakpoints. The results confirmed statistically significant structural changes across all transport modes. Water transport demonstrated a long-term declining trend and the highest sensitivity to geopolitical risks, whereas road and air transport stabilized at lower levels after the initial decline. The findings highlight the asymmetric impact of geopolitical shocks on individual transport modes and emphasize the need for long-term monitoring, the development of multimodal analytical models, and the creation of EU-specific geopolitical risk indicators. The study also underlines the importance of strengthening the resilience of European transport systems against external geopolitical disruptions.