Decomposition of unemployment in Spain 1980-2019: Evolution of structural unemployment

J. Miguel Calero; Raymond Lagonigro; Rafa Madariaga

doi:10.2478/lel-2026-0002

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Decomposition of unemployment in Spain 1980-2019: Evolution of structural unemployment

Labour Economics Letters

Volume 2 (2026): Issue 1 (January 2026)

By: J. Miguel Calero , Raymond Lagonigro and Rafa Madariaga

Open Access

|Jun 2026

Figures & Tables

Unemployment rates (U%) 1980-2019: France Germany, Italy and Spain.Source: Own elaboration based on OECD data‥ https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (last access September 2025). Data for Germany before 1991 corresponds to the Federal Republic of Germany

Evolution of the Unemployment Rate and GDP real growth.Source: Own elaboration based on OECD GDP and unemployment data. https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (last access September 2025)

Evolution of total (U%) and frictional (Uf%) unemployment rates.Source: Estimated series using EPA data.

Structural unemployment rate by each method. Comparison with the unemployment rate after subtracting the frictional component (Un). Structural unemployment rate with cubic regression (USCR), BK filter (USBK), HP filter (USHP) and Kalman filter (USK).Source: Estimated series using EPA data.

Decomposition of Un into Structural (USCR) and cyclical (UCCR) unemployment rates as estimated with cubic regression.Source: Estimated series using EPA data.

Decomposition of Un into Structural (USHP) and cyclical (UCHP) unemployment rates as estimated with the Hodrik-Prescott filter.Source: Estimated series using EPA data.

Decomposition of Un into Structural (USBK) and cyclical (UCBK) unemployment rates as estimated with the Baxter-King filter.Source: Estimated series using EPA data.

Decomposition of Un into Structural (USK) and cyclical (UCK) unemployment rates as estimated with the Kalman filter.Source: Estimated series using EPA data.

The average rate of frictional unemployment

1980-1989	1990-1999	2000-2009	2010-2019
5.06%	5.13%	2.33%	4.26%

Decomposition of the average unemployment rate with cubic regression model: total (U%), frictional (UF%), structural (USCR%) and cyclical (UC%) unemployment rates_

Time	U%	U^F%	U^SCR%	U^CCR%
1980 - 1989	16.49	5.06	9.98	2.62
1990 - 1999	15.80	5.13	11.69	0.37
2000 - 2009	10.90	2.33	10.66	0.31
2010 - 2019	18.12	4.26	12.20	2.80
1980 - 2019	15.33	4.20	11.13	1.53

Decomposition of the average unemployment rate: total (U), frictional (UF) and structural unemployment as estimated with HP (USHP), BK (USBK), and Kalman (USK) filters; and cyclical unemployment, with HP (UCHP), BK (UCBK) and Kalman (UCK) filter

Time	U%	U^F%	U^SHP%	U^CHP%	U^SBK%	U^CBK%	U^SK%	U^CK%
1980 - 1989	16.49	5.06	10.26	2.75	10.07	1.54	8.87	2.68
1990 - 1999	15.80	5.13	10.93	0.67	10.99	1.13	11.45	0.47
2000 - 2009	10.90	2.33	10.98	0.20	9.25	0.32	8.90	0.55
2010 - 2019	18.12	4.26	12.35	2.26	12.74	1.21	13.50	1.36
1980 - 2019	15.33	4.20	11.13	1.47	10.76	1.05	10.68	1.27

Error components frontier results_ Estimation of equation E_10_

λ₀	0.415
λ₁	35.235*
λ₂	0.001

σ² = σ_ω² + σ_μ²	2.477***
σ = σ_μ²/γ²	0.858***
Meaning codes: 0 '* ' 0.001 ' ' 0.01 '* ' 0.05 '. ' 0.1

Correlation coefficients between estimates obtained by each method_ The unemployment rate (U) and the structural unemployment rate with cubic regression (USCR), HP filter (USHP%), BK filter (USBK%) and Kalman filter (USK%)_

	U^SCR	U^SHP	U^SBK	U^SK
U	0.288	0.377	0.770	0.626
U^SCR	1	0.792	0.510	0.731
U^SHP		1	0.642	0.727
U^SBK			1	0.810

Vacancy data

1980 to 2005	OECD, public and private sector	OECD	Vact^OECD
2001 to 2012	Eurostat, without public sector	EURO	_VactEURO
2010 onwards	Eurostat, public and private sector	EURT	Vact^EURT

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/lel-2026-0002 | Journal eISSN: 3071-8317

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Language: English

Page range: 9 - 20

Published on: Jun 11, 2026

Published by: Asociacion Española de Economia del Trabajo

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

Keywords:

structural unemployment,

frictional unemployment,

cyclical unemployment,

vacancies

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Mathematics and statistics for economists,

Econometrics

© 2026 J. Miguel Calero, Raymond Lagonigro, Rafa Madariaga, published by Asociacion Española de Economia del Trabajo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License.

Volume 2 (2026): Issue 1 (January 2026)

Decomposition of unemployment in Spain 1980-2019: Evolution of structural unemployment

Figures & Tables

Fig. A.1.

Fig. A.2.

Fig. A.3.

Fig. A.4.

Fig. A.5.

Fig. A.6.

Fig. A.7.

Fig. A.8.

The average rate of frictional unemployment

Decomposition of the average unemployment rate with cubic regression model: total (U%), frictional (UF%), structural (USCR%) and cyclical (UC%) unemployment rates_

Decomposition of the average unemployment rate: total (U), frictional (UF) and structural unemployment as estimated with HP (USHP), BK (USBK), and Kalman (USK) filters; and cyclical unemployment, with HP (UCHP), BK (UCBK) and Kalman (UCK) filter

Error components frontier results_ Estimation of equation E_10_

Correlation coefficients between estimates obtained by each method_ The unemployment rate (U) and the structural unemployment rate with cubic regression (USCR), HP filter (USHP%), BK filter (USBK%) and Kalman filter (USK%)_

Vacancy data

Paradigm

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