Reduced-Order Thermal Digital Twin for Predictive Monitoring of Weapon Systems

This study proposes a reduced-order thermal digital twin framework for predictive monitoring of weapon systems subjected to transient firing conditions. The proposed approach employs a one-dimensional transient heat conduction model formulated in cylindrical coordinates which is experimentally validated through successive firing test performed on a small-caliber weapon system, using external barrel temperature measurements acquired during firing scenarios. The obtained results demonstrate that the reduced-order formulation successfully reproduces the thermal behavior associated with barrel heating and cooling processes while maintaining significantly lower computational requirements compared to high-fidelity numerical simulations. Furthermore, the proposed framework enables near real-time thermal estimation capabilities suitable for predictive monitoring, thermal safety assessment, and future smart defense applications. The computational efficiency and physical consistency of the model also support its potential integration into digital twin architectures and dual-use thermal monitoring systems.