Assessment and Management of Vulnerabilities in Industrial Transport Networks Based on Dispersion and Explosion Simulations

Transporting hazardous materials poses a critical challenge to public safety and national infrastructure, amplified by intensifying industrial logistics flows. This paper analyses the risk management associated with the road transport of ammonium nitrate, a substance with a dual hazard potential: toxic and explosive. The primary objective is to evaluate vulnerabilities along two major logistical routes in Romania, on the Azomureș–Medgidia axis. The research methodology is based on simulating major accident scenarios using ALOHA and MARPLOT. Currently, Route 2 serves as the primary freight path due to lower operational costs compared to Route 1. However, results indicate this route presents a significantly higher risk level, driven by the exposure of a larger population, over 180 000 people, and the presence of critical infrastructure of major economic and logistical importance. In comparison, Route 1 reveals fewer vulnerable points, affecting approximately 125 000 people and a reduced number of strategic assets. The study concludes that, although Route 1 entails additional operational costs, its adoption minimizes human exposure and critical asset vulnerability. The research strengthens the risk assessment process and helps prevent similar incidents, providing authorities with an anticipatory planning tool that maximizes preparation and response time in the face of disasters.