Quantitative Assessment Mathematical Model for Military Combat Engagement by Using Stochastic Modeling and Simulation

This paper presents an integrated model for analyzing combat engagement between two armor units and predicting battle outcomes through stochastic analysis. The proposed model examines the key elements of both one-on-one and three-on-two combat, incorporating technical and tactical elements such as double armor, superior firing accuracy, and ambush conditions. The conceptual framework is based on classical Markov chains, which serve as mathematical tools for simulating processes that evolve over time under conditions of uncertainty. These models are founded on the principle that a system’s future state is determined by its current state, rather than by the sequence of events that produced it. Consequently, the system’s transition history is embedded in the current state matrix, which serves as the basis for modelling and simulation subsequent transition processes.