Targeting Through Deprivation: Russia’s Attacks on Ukrainian Energy and Nuclear Infrastructure — An International Humanitarian Law Perspective

Since October 2022 the Russian Federation has conducted successive waves of coordinated strikes on Ukraine’s electricity generation, transmission and district-heating infrastructure, together with the military seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This paper develops a single-case study, with three embedded units of analysis, to test the hypothesis that these attacks constitute a method of indirect targeting of the civilian population: they aim to produce sufficient suffering to decouple popular support from the political authority and war aims of the Ukrainian State. The case is examined through the lens of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, the 1977 Additional Protocol I, customary international humanitarian law, and the Rome Statute. Open-source evidence from United Nations (UN), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), International Energy Agency (IEA) and World Bank sources is triangulated to establish a factual pattern on the “reasonable grounds to believe” standard. The paper argues that the systematic, winter-timed and nationwide character of the campaign cannot be reconciled with the dual-use doctrine and generates individual criminal responsibility, consistent with the International Criminal Court arrest warrants issued in 2024 against senior Russian commanders.