From VUCA to BANI: A Paradigm Shift in Critical Infrastructure Resilience – a Comprehensive Case Study of the Bucharest Centralized Heating System

The global landscape of critical infrastructure management is undergoing a fundamental transformation. For decades, the VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) framework provided the primary lens for risk assessment. However, the contemporary era—marked by climate instability, rapid technological disruptions, and systemic fragility—demands a more nuanced approach. This paper explores the transition to the BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible) paradigm, focusing on its implications for the Bucharest centralized heating system (CMTEB). By combining resilience theory with empirical data from a specialized questionnaire involving 62 technical experts and managers, the study evaluates systemic vulnerabilities and the role of emerging technologies. The findings indicate that while traditional robustness is declining, the integration of Digital Twins, AI-driven predictive maintenance, and IoT-based monitoring offers a strategic pathway to transition from structural brittleness to systemic resilience.