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Joint modeling of flood peak discharges, volume and duration: a case study of the Danube River in Bratislava Cover

Joint modeling of flood peak discharges, volume and duration: a case study of the Danube River in Bratislava

Open Access
|Aug 2014

Abstract

The study is focused on the analysis and statistical evaluation of the joint probability of the occurrence of hydrological variables such as peak discharge (Q), volume (V) and duration (t). In our case study, we focus on the bivariate statistical analysis of these hydrological variables of the Danube River in Bratislava gauging station, during the period of 1876-2013. The study presents the methodology of the bivariate statistical analysis, choice of appropriate marginal distributions and appropriate copula functions in representing the joint distribution. Finally, the joint return periods and conditional return periods for some hydrological pairs (Q-V, V-t, Q-t) were calculated. The approach using copulas can reproduce a wide range of correlation (nonlinear) frequently observed in hydrology. Results of this study provide comprehensive information about flood where a devastating effect may be increased in the case where its three basic components (or at least two of them) Q, V and t have the same significance.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2014-0026 | Journal eISSN: 1338-4333 | Journal ISSN: 0042-790X
Language: English
Page range: 186 - 196
Submitted on: Mar 12, 2014
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Accepted on: May 14, 2014
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Published on: Aug 15, 2014
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2014 Veronika Bačová Mitková, Dana Halmová, published by Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Hydrology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.