Table 1.
Altitude, temperature, and precipitation for 2003 and 2019 in coffee plantations with Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi presence (various localities in Mexico and San Pablo, Guatemala).
| Year | Municipality | Locality | Altitude (m a.s.l.) | Temperature (°C) | Precipitation (mm/year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Unión Juárez | Finca Monte Perla | 1020 | 22.87 | 4311.96 |
| Ejido Once de Abril | 852 | 23.50 | 4544.00 | ||
| Cacahoatán | Ejido Santo Domingo | 810 | 23.79 | 4640.05 | |
| Finca La Alianza | 671 | 24.24 | 4503.66 | ||
| Finca El Zapote | 676 | 24.21 | 4525.80 | ||
| Rancho El Paraíso | 564 | 24.65 | 4433.28 | ||
| Tapachula | Finca San Enrique | 754 | 23.99 | 4139.28 | |
| Ejido Cinco de Mayo | 554 | 24.85 | 4315.99 | ||
| Ejido El Edén | 544 | 25.57 | 3875.75 | ||
| Rancho La Esperanza | 507 | 25.14 | 4134.87 | ||
| Tuxtla Chico | Finca El Encanto | 461 | 25.03 | 4242.72 | |
| 2019 | Unión Juárez | Río Suchiate | 1014 | 22.00 | 3295.00 |
| Finca Monte Perla | 938 | 23.18 | 4443.20 | ||
| Santo Domingo | 883 | 23.47 | 4636.51 | ||
| Ejido Once de Abril | 850 | 23.56 | 4562.55 | ||
| San Rafael | 819 | 23.63 | 4629.64 | ||
| Ejido San Jerónimo | 747 | 23.94 | 4573.30 | ||
| Cacahoatán | Dos de Mayo | 839 | 23.64 | 4566.13 | |
| Faja de Oro | 836 | 23.60 | 4559.70 | ||
| Finca El Zapote | 720 | 24.09 | 4547.48 | ||
| Finca La Alianza | 703 | 23.92 | 4563.86 | ||
| Rosario Ixtal | 600 | 24.59 | 4455.24 | ||
| Rancho San Antonio | 577 | 24.61 | 4447.98 | ||
| La Unidad | 568 | 24.63 | 4443.94 | ||
| Tapachula | Finca Santa Lucía | 672 | 24.26 | 4426.17 | |
| Salvador Urbina | 598 | 24.59 | 4439.59 | ||
| Finca Brasil | 463 | 25.31 | 4045.24 | ||
| Acacoyagua | Ejido Los Cacaos | 450 | 25.25 | 3211.97 | |
| San Pablo | Finca Buena Vista | 670 | 24.00 | 3689.00 |
Table 2.
Altitude, temperature, and precipitation for 2003 and 2019 in coffee plantations with Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi absence.
| Year | Municipality | Locality | Altitude (m a.s.l.) | Temperature (°C) | Precipitacion (mm/year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Unión Juárez | Unión Juárez | 1295.00 | 21.51 | 4013.41 |
| Cacahoatán | Finca La Gloria | 569.00 | 24.64 | 4436.73 | |
| Tuxtla Chico | Ejido Manuel Lazos | 363.00 | 25.45 | 3834.87 | |
| San José La Victoria | 484.00 | 24.96 | 4286.24 | ||
| Tapachula | Finca Hamburgo | 1166.00 | 22.18 | 3729.59 | |
| Finca Irlanda | 1149.00 | 22.32 | 3694.39 | ||
| Finca Maravillas | 647.00 | 24.28 | 4290.40 | ||
| San Miguel | 409.00 | 25.45 | 3943.71 | ||
| Huixtla | Camino Real | 465.00 | 25.16 | 3631.59 | |
| Finca Córcega | 370.00 | 25.23 | 3628.14 | ||
| Villacomaltitlán | Ejido Zapote Mocho | 120.00 | 26.85 | 3329.28 | |
| Finca La Granja | 459.00 | 24.87 | 3638.88 | ||
| 2019 | Motozintla | Finca Santa Catalina | 795.00 | 23.52 | 3363.59 |
| Ranchería Varitas | 757.00 | 23.67 | 3376.80 | ||
| El Manguito | 748.00 | 23.87 | 3464.51 | ||
| Finca Brasil | 734.00 | 23.80 | 3441.29 | ||
| Los Cocos | 637.00 | 24.34 | 3642.55 | ||
| Tapachula | Ejido Mexiquito | 813.00 | 23.63 | 4072.84 | |
| Santa Anita | 766.00 | 23.76 | 4041.23 | ||
| Finca Maravillas | 760.00 | 23.83 | 4148.71 | ||
| Tiro Seguro | 713.00 | 24.08 | 4130.85 | ||
| San José Nexapa | 665.00 | 24.30 | 4429.00 | ||
| Ejido Toluca | 553.00 | 24.76 | 4372.55 | ||
| Malpaso | 326.00 | 25.85 | 3554.65 | ||
| Tuxtla Chico | Finca El Encanto | 461 | 25.14 | 4176.88 | |
| Escuintla | Ejido Tres de mayo | 529.00 | 25.06 | 3377.83 | |
| Jamaica | 331.00 | 25.99 | 3441.58 | ||
| Tuzantán | El Retiro | 480.00 | 25.22 | 3818.76 | |
| Río Negro | 208.00 | 26.65 | 3339.10 | ||
| Villacomaltitlán | Manuel Ávila Camacho | 109.00 | 27.05 | 3249.11 |
Figure 1.
Canonical discriminant analysis based on environmental variables (altitude, temperature, and precipitation) to model the presence/absence of the nematode Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi in the Soconusco, Chiapas, for the year 2003. Variability explained by the canonical variable is 100%.
Figure 2.
Canonical discriminant analysis based on environmental variables (altitude, temperature, and precipitation) to model the presence/absence of the nematode Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi in the Soconusco, Chiapas, for the year 2019. The variability explained by the canonical variable is 100%.
Table 3.
Breadth and evaluation of the SDMs. All models were characterized by a high predictive accuracy in the partial ROC test (AUC = 0.99). The breadth of the geographical distribution of Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi was similar (4692 km2), although all models predict a limited geographical distribution (0.02%) for the Neotropical region (23943229 km2).
| SDM | Accessible area | SDM breadth | Proportion | Partial ROC test | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1px = 1km2) | (1px = 1km2) | (%) | AUC of 0.95 | AUC of 0.5 | Ratio | |
| Model A | 23,943,229 | 4,977 | 0.021 | 0.99976 | 0.49999 | 1.99951 |
| Model B | 4,811 | 0.020 | 0.99979 | 0.49999 | 1.99959 | |
| Model C | 4,834 | 0.020 | 0.99980 | 0.49999 | 1.99959 | |
| Final model (D) | 4,692 | 0.020 | - | - | - | |
Figure 3.
Distribution of sites with presence of the nematode Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi across four different rainfall distribution ranges of the Soconusco for the years 2003 and 2019. Site locations appear as white (absence) or black (presence) dots.
Figure 4.
Models of geographical distribution of Metaparasitylenchus hypothenemi in the Neotropical region. A) with fifteen climatic variables, B) with eight climatic variables, C) with six climatic variables, and D) the final model constructed with the sum of models A, B, and C. Regions with probability of occurrence (high inside the red rectangle, low inside the dotted line shapes).
Figure 5.
Zoomed-in on the region with the highest probability of occurrence (Mexico and Guatemala), with dots indicating site locations with absence (white) and presence (black) of the parasite for the years 2003 and 2019. The probability of nematode occurrence is shown as a color gradient (1–10).