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Proposed approach to evaluate the deterrence of limited nuclear attacks Cover

Proposed approach to evaluate the deterrence of limited nuclear attacks

Open Access
|Apr 2024

Figures & Tables

Notional damage levels for various limited nuclear strikes

Type of strikeDamage political controlConventional military damageEconomic damageCivilian causalities
Demonstration0000
Strategic military0000
Conventional military0300
War supporting infrastructure0211
HAB0120
Economic0031
Cities0023

Limited nuclear attack and response outcome deltas (sanctions, conventional military impact, economic effect and civilian causalities)

Response Options
Strictly Compliant with LOACRelaxed LOACBelligerent Reprisals
Demonstration or Conventional CounterattackConventional MilitaryWar Supporting IndustryHigh Altitute Burst (HAB)*Economic or InfrastructureCities
SanctionsMilitaryEconomicCasusalitiesSanctionsMilitaryEconomicCausalitiesSanctionsMilitaryEconomicCausalitiesSanctionsMilitaryEconomicCausalitiesSanctionsMilitaryEconomicCausalitiesSanctionsMilitaryEconomicCausalities
Attack OptionsDemo< >--- >---->--- > ----> -----
Military<+++ <= >+-->++-- >+++---->+++-----
War Supt<++++<-++<===>+-+>+++--=>++---
HAB<++ <--++ >-+-<== <+-->+=---
Ecomonic< ++++<---++++<--++=>-++< ==> +--
Cities< +++++<---+++++<--+++<-=+++< -++< ==

Damage levels from a limited nuclear strike

Damage CategoriesDamage levels to targeted nation by national objectives
012345
Political ControlNo changeProtests and demonstrations against the governmentCivil unrest; Stress maintenance of law-and-orderSignificant insurgency existsRevolution to remove regimeEnd of regime
Conventional MilitaryNo changeLocal military capability impairedRegional or theater military capability significantly degradedRegional or theater offensive military capabilities disabledRegional or theater military capability ineffectiveNational conventional military capabilities are ineffective
EconomyNo changeRegional economy suffers <10%Regional economy depressed 10%–25%Market recession/supply chains interrupted 10%–25%/regional economy suffers 25%–50%Market depression; supply chains interrupted 25%–50%; regional economy suffers 50%–90%Sustained market collapse/supply chains greatly interrupted; gross domestic product decreases over 25%
Civilian CasualtiesNo change<5,0005,000–10,00010,000–50,00050,000–1,00,000>100,000
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jms-2024-0004 | Journal eISSN: 1799-3350 | Journal ISSN: 2242-3524
Language: English
Page range: 33 - 46
Submitted on: Feb 1, 2024
Accepted on: Mar 3, 2024
Published on: Apr 1, 2024
Published by: National Defense University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2024 Mark A. Gallagher, published by National Defense University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.