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Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing Cover

Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

Open Access
|Mar 2024

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1

GFI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023.
Source : Global Firepower Index.
GFI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Source : Global Firepower Index.

Fig. 2

CFPI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023.
Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
CFPI Scores for the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Fig. 3

Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals (Excluding AFVs),* 2023.
Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
*All five states have large, mostly ageing inventories of armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) – armoured, armed vehicles other than main battle tanks – that would inject misleading noise into this depiction, which counts but does not weight systems. Figure 4 includes AFVs.
Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals (Excluding AFVs),* 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies. *All five states have large, mostly ageing inventories of armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) – armoured, armed vehicles other than main battle tanks – that would inject misleading noise into this depiction, which counts but does not weight systems. Figure 4 includes AFVs.

Fig. 4

Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals by Sources of CFPI Score, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Technological Composition of U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran Conventional Arsenals by Sources of CFPI Score, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Fig. 5

CFPI Scores for Extra-Regional Projection Platforms* of the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023.
Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
*”Extra-regional projection platforms” includes the set of systems in the CFPI excluding all land systems, air defence systems, and shortrange or coastal naval platforms (corvettes, missile boats, non-nuclear-powered tactical submarines and anti-ship missiles). See list in Table 10.
CFPI Scores for Extra-Regional Projection Platforms* of the U.S., China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023. Underlying quantity source: International Institute for Strategic Studies. *”Extra-regional projection platforms” includes the set of systems in the CFPI excluding all land systems, air defence systems, and shortrange or coastal naval platforms (corvettes, missile boats, non-nuclear-powered tactical submarines and anti-ship missiles). See list in Table 10.

Russian Multirole Fighter CFPI Score, 2023

PlatformQuantitytGrCFPI
MiG-29SM1523321,440
MiG-31BM107233210,272
Su-27/B/C4811321,536
Su-27ML/SM/SM37123326,816
Su30M2/MKK/MKI/SM122343215,616
Su-35/BM/S99343212,672
Uam 48,352

Chinese Multirole Fighter CFPI Score, 2023

PlatformQuantitytGrCFPI
J-10A/S313233230,048
J-10B/C275343235,200
J-11/B/BS297233228,512
J-16250343232,000
Su-30M2/MKK/MKI/SM97343212,416
Su-35/BM/S2434323,072
U am 141,248

WEG-CFPI Technological Tier Conversion and Coefficient Weighting

WEG TierCFPI TierDescriptor (2005-pres.)Descriptor (1990-2004)G-valueAdjustments (additions)
1(+)*4Cutting-edgeN/A6System introduction establishes new generation; long-range missile systems of WEG tier 1
13AdvancedCutting-edge4Long-range missile systems of WEG tier 2
22CompetitiveAdvanced3Long-range missile systems of WEG tier 3; short-range missile systems of WEG tier 1; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 1; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 1
31AgeingCompetitive1Long-range missile systems of WEG tier 4; short-range missile systems of WEG tier 2; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 2; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 2
41AgeingAgeing1Short-range missile systems of WEG tier 3; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 3; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 3
4(-)*0ObsoleteObsolete0Short-range missile systems of WEG tier 4; wheeled armored fighting vehicles of WEG tier 4; towed anti-aircraft systems of WEG tier 4; systems of WEG tier 4 operated in a quantity less than 1% of their lifetime production run

Comparison of Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing Scores, U_S_, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, 2023_

System TypeCFPI Score
United StatesChinaRussiaNorth KoreaIran
Air Superiority Fighter41,04036,7443,2647,7763,840
Multirole Fighter236,800141,24848,35203,104
Ground Attack Aircraft30,81626,30457,2162,7362,088
Air Defence Missile System*86,040131,472142,3208,88012,144
Air Domain Subtotal394,696335,768251,15219,39221,176
Main Battle Tank*58,84097,60042,000**42,00010,760
Armoured Fighting Vehicle*336,676132,68056,6404,8245,380
Self-Propelled Cannon Artillery*4,99217,6604,4368,600584
Towed Cannon Artillery*5,9858002,0902,1501,840
Rocket Artillery*5,71510,5003,8529,435828
Rotary Wing Attack*63,04019,07213,4880800
Multirole Rotary Wing*33,7366,7562,8841,144640
Air Defence Gun System*01,4462102,750572
Surface-to-Surface Missile*5,13627,00012,0002,66411,520
Land Domain Subtotal514,120313,514137,60073,56732,924
Aircraft Carrier (Nuclear-powered)103,6800000
Aircraft Carrier (Non-nuclear-powered)28,1886,80497200
Helicopter Carrier3,888***3,888000
Ship-Based Rotary Wing*20,6101,068858078
Ship-Based Fixed Wing122,9127,6803,36000
Shore-Based Maritime Fixed Wing*11,3285,1601,728072
Cruiser28,35012,6002,25000
Destroyer67,20045,3003,30000
Frigate12,32017,2206,7202800
Corvette*012,00012,00001,140
Missile Boat/Fast Attack Craft*3604,41609841,800
Tactical Submarine(Nuclear-powered)48,6006,30013,50000
Tactical Submarine (Non-nuclear-powered)*09,3602,4003,600960
Shore-based Anti-ship Missile*017,3106,2405401,620
Naval Domain Subtotal447,436149,10653,3285,4045,670
Total 2023 CFPI Score1,356,252798,388442,08098,36359,770

Weapon System Role Values

DomainRoleIndex SystemIndex MunitionNormal Yield RatioVersatilityr-Value
ReleaseEngagement
AirAir Superiority FighterF-16A (USA)AIM-12062224
Multirole FighterF-16 C (Blk40+) (USA)GBU-1282232
Ground Attack AircraftA-IOC(USA)GBU-12122124
Air Defence (Missile)MIM-104C (USA)PAC-2241124
LandMain Battle TankMIA2SEP(USA)M830A12228
Armored Fighting Vehicle?2A3 (USA)M7921224
Self-Propelled Cannon ArtilleryM109A6 (USA)M483A1 DPICM2112
Towed Cannon ArtilleryM119A1 (USA)M915 DPICM1111
Rocket ArtilleryM270A1 (USA)M26A2 DPICM3113
Rotary Wing AttackAH-64A (USA)AGM-114N42216
Multirole Armed Rotary WingMH-6OA (USA)7.62 X 51mm NATO1224
Air Defence (Gun)ZSU-23-4 (RUS)23xl52B BZT1111
Surface-to-Surface MissileDF-I6(PRC)DF-16 Conventional241124
NavalAircraft Carrier (Nuclear-powered)Nimitz-Class (USA)AGM-l54Cvia AV-8B320332,880
Aircraft Carrier (Non-nuclear-powered)America-Class (USA)AGM-l54Cvia AV-8B10833972
Helicopter CarrierCanberra-Class (AUS)AGM-114B via MH-6OR1233108
Ship-Based Armed Rotary WingMH-6OS (USA)AGM-114B3216
Ship-Based Armed Fixed WingAV-8B(USA)AGM-154C82232
Ground-Based Armed Maritime Fixed WingP-8A (USA)Mk-46 Mod 51221
CruiserTiconderoga-Class (USA)RGM-109E7523450
DestroyerArleigh Burke (fit. II) (USA)RGM-109E5023300
FrigateGrigorovich (RUS)P-8003522140
CorvetteType O56A (PRC)YJ-83K152260
Missile Boat/Fast AttackCraftType 022 (PRC)YJ-83K122124
Tactical Submarine (Nuclear-powered)Los Angeles-Class (fit. Ill) (USA)RGM-109E5023300
Tactical Submarine (Non-nuclear-powered)Kilo-Class (Improved) (RUS)53-65M152260
Ground-Based Anti-Ship MissileYJ-100(PRC)YJ-100301130

Comparison of Air-focused CFPI Scores, Russia and China, 2023

CFPI Score
System TypeRussiaChina
Air Superiority Fighter (Uai)3,26436,744
Multirole Fighter (Uam)48,352141,248
Ground Attack Aircraft (Uag)57,21626,304
Air Defence Missile System (Uad)142,320131,472
Total (Ua)251,152335,768

CFPI Release and Engagement Versatility Rubric

ValueRelease VersatilityEngagement Versatility
3Index system releases systems of release versatility 2 that in turn release the index munition, giving the index system multiple levels of release articulation and adaptiveness to target behaviourIndex system is ordinarily intended to engage systems in multiple domains and is ordinarily configured to engage those systems purpose-built to target the index system
2Index system can manoeuvre leading up to and during index munition release allowing a larger window of adaptation to target behaviourIndex system is ordinarily intended to engage systems in multiple domains or is ordinarily configured to engage those systems purpose-built to target the index system
1Index system must be motionless to release the index munition; the index system cannot make dynamic adaptations to target behaviour immediately leading up to or upon release of the index munitionIndex system is ordinarily intended to engage systems in only one domain and is not ordinarily configured to engage those systems purpose-built to target the index system

Russian Multirole Fighters, 2023

PlatformQuantity
MiG-29SM15
MiG-31BM107
Su-27/B/C48
Su-27ML/SM/SM371
Su30M2/MKK/MKI/SM122
Su-35/BM/S99

Multirole Fighters by CFPI Tier

NameTierNameTier
Adir4JAS 39C/D2
Barak2JAS 39E3
CF-18AM/BM2JF-17/A/B (Block 1/2)2
Ching Kuo2JF-17A/B (Block 3)3
EF-20002KF-16C/D2
EF-2000 FGR4/T33MiG-29SM2
F/A-18 A/B2MiG-29M/M2/ME3
F/A-18 C/D3MiG-31BM2
F-15E/I/S2Mirage 2000-5/5F2
F-15K3Mirage 2000C/D/E1
F-15SA3Mirage 2000H/I3
F-16C/D Block 25/30/321Mirage F1/E1
F-16C/D Block 40/42/50/52/+2Ra’am3
F-16V3Rafale B F3-R/C F3-R3
F-35/A/I4Rafale/B/C/DH/DM/EH/EM (F2)2
F-4D/E1Saegheh2
F-4E 20202Su-221
FA-502Su-22M41
FC-12Su-27/B/C1
FC-202Su-27ML/SK/SM/SM32
F-CK-1A/B2Su-30/K2
F-CK-1C/D3Su-30M2/MKK/MKI/SM3
Gripen C/D2Su-35/BM/S3
J-10A/S2Su-70
J-10B/C3Sufa2
J-11/B/BS2Tejas3
J-163Terminator2
J-61Typhoon2
JAS 39A/B1Typhoon FGR4/T33

Chinese Multirole Fighters, 2023

PlatformQuantity
J-10A/S313
J-10B/C275
J-11/B/BS297
J-16250
Su-30M2/MKK/MKI/SM97
Su-35/BM/S24
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jms-2023-0007 | Journal eISSN: 1799-3350 | Journal ISSN: 2242-3524
Language: English
Page range: 85 - 103
Submitted on: Oct 11, 2021
Accepted on: Sep 22, 2023
Published on: Mar 11, 2024
Published by: National Defense University
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2024 Lee Habib Roberts, published by National Defense University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.