Table 1
LTC systems in OECD countries
| Sources of funds | Coverage and benefits | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People with a disability | Aged people with a disability / People with an age-related disability | |||
| In kind | Cash and in kind | In kind | Cash and in kind | |
| Tax revenues | Canada | Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Sweden, UK | Greece | Slovak Republic |
| LTC insurance (Premiums and taxes) | Germany, Luxemboug, Netherlands | Japan | Korea | |
| Mixed | Hungary, Portugal | Austria, Belgium, France, Italy Poland, Slovenia, Siwitzerland | Australia | Mexico, US |
[i] Source: the author's tabulation based on Colombo et al. (2011), Table 7.1.
Table 2
Descriptive statistics
| Variable | Japan | Donor pool countries | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obs. | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min. | Max. | Obs. | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min. | Max. | |
| Outcomes (1980–2013) | ||||||||||
| Public expenditure on benefits in kind for the elderly (% of GDP) | 34 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.10 | 1.74 | 544 | 0.57 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 2.86 |
| Public expenditure on benefits in kind for the elderly (per elderly person) | 34 | 1135.71 | 955.26 | 245.76 | 2749.34 | 544 | 1491.81 | 1970.72 | 0.00 | 8005.41 |
| Total public expenditure on health care (% of GDP) | 34 | 5.41 | 0.99 | 4.37 | 7.68 | 578 | 5.43 | 1.30 | 2.12 | 8.72 |
| Total public expenditure on health care (per capita) | 34 | 1839.76 | 578.51 | 971.47 | 3031.47 | 578 | 2017.54 | 765.16 | 402.75 | 4349.87 |
| Female labor force participation rate (age 40–44) | 34 | 69.63 | 2.00 | 64.11 | 73.11 | 511 | 75.57 | 12.84 | 24.19 | 93.54 |
| Female labor force participation rate (age 45–49) | 34 | 71.53 | 3.24 | 64.44 | 76.14 | 511 | 73.22 | 14.77 | 24.29 | 92.73 |
| Female labor force participation rate (age 50–54) | 34 | 66.81 | 4.40 | 58.76 | 75.13 | 511 | 66.31 | 16.64 | 23.79 | 88.54 |
| Female labor force participation rate (age 55–59) | 34 | 56.87 | 4.75 | 49.86 | 66.50 | 520 | 52.21 | 17.90 | 14.41 | 83.41 |
| Predictors other than pre-intervention outcomes (1980–1999) | ||||||||||
| Per capita real GDP (million US$, PPP, 2005) | 20 | 22.80 | 5.45 | 16.18 | 30.01 | 340 | 22.29 | 5.94 | 8.24 | 39.61 |
| Child population (%) | 20 | 18.92 | 3.03 | 14.79 | 23.51 | 340 | 20.29 | 2.94 | 14.29 | 30.44 |
| Elderly population (%) | 20 | 12.29 | 2.44 | 9.10 | 16.72 | 340 | 13.75 | 2.08 | 9.41 | 17.91 |
| Employment in agriculture (%) | 20 | 7.41 | 1.74 | 5.18 | 10.42 | 340 | 7.52 | 4.84 | 1.56 | 27.26 |
| Employment in industry (%) | 20 | 34.08 | 0.97 | 31.66 | 35.33 | 340 | 29.44 | 4.28 | 21.27 | 40.26 |
| Employment in services (%) | 20 | 58.51 | 2.58 | 54.24 | 63.15 | 340 | 63.03 | 7.76 | 36.12 | 74.47 |
| Annual growth rate of per capita real GDP (%) | 20 | 2.83 | 3.72 | −2.53 | 9.97 | 340 | 2.67 | 3.27 | −9.72 | 11.94 |
| Annual growth rate of population (%) | 20 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.80 | 340 | 0.53 | 0.48 | −0.73 | 3.93 |
| Annual growth rate of child population (%) | 20 | −2.35 | 0.78 | −3.64 | −0.41 | 340 | −1.08 | 1.13 | −4.15 | 1.40 |
| Annual growth rate of elderly population (%) | 20 | 3.22 | 0.67 | 1.79 | 4.03 | 340 | 0.85 | 1.00 | −2.49 | 3.02 |
[i] Notes: Original data is unbalanced panel data for 18 OECD countries between 1980 and 2013. In order to implement SC analysis with annual data, we impute some missing values by linear interpolation, but we do not extrapolate any values. The 18 OECD countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The period for the outcome variables is between 1980 and 2013, but the period for the predictors other than pre-intervention outcomes is between 1980 and 1999, because we use only pre-intervention values for the predictor variables. See Section 3.3 for a detailed explanation of the donor pool selection and Appendix A2 for the variable definitions and sources.
Figure 1
SC estimation for in-kind benefits for the elderly (% of GDP).
Notes: SC 1 is constructed from the original donor pool, SC 2 is constructed from the donor pool that excludes the country that receives the highest weights in the first SC estimation, and SC 3 is constructed from the donor pool that also excludes the country that receives the highest weights in the second SC estimation. Canada is excluded from the original donor pool due to lack of data. For SC estimation we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options. See Tables A4 and A5 in Appendix A3 for detailed estimation results.
Figure 2
SC estimation of public health expenditure (% of GDP).
Notes: SC 1 is constructed from the original donor pool, SC 2 is constructed from a donor pool that excludes the country that receives the highest weights in the first SC estimation, and SC 3 is constructed from a donor pool that also excludes the country that receives the highest weights in the second SC estimation. Norway is excluded from the original donor pool due to a lack of data. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options. See Tables A6 and A7 in Appendix A3 for detailed estimation results.
Figure 3
SC estimation of female LFP rates by age cohort.
Notes: See the note in Figure 1 for a detailed explanation of the graph. Due to data availability, the first year of our sample is 1986. Austria, Ireland, and Switzerland are excluded from the original donor pool due to lack of data. Except for the age cohort (55–59, lower right graph), Finland is also excluded due to lack of data. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options. See Tables A8–A11 in Appendix A3 for detailed estimation results.
Figure 4
SC estimation for the difference in female LFP rates by age cohort.
Notes: See the note in Figure 1 for a detailed explanation of the graph. Due to data availability, the first year of our sample is 1986. Austria, Finland, Ireland, New Zealand, and Switzerland are excluded from the original donor pool due to lack of data. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options, but in cases in which there is an optimization error (due to a poor pre-intervention fit), we implement synth without nested and allopt. See Tables A12 and A13 in Appendix A3 for detailed estimation results.
Figure 5
SC estimation of demeaned outcomes.
Notes: See the note and the legend in Figure 1 for detailed explanations of the graph. Due to data availability, the first year of our sample for the outcomes of female LFP rates is 1986. Due to lack of data, Canada is excluded from the donor pool for the outcome of in-kind benefits for the elderly, Norway for the outcome of public health expenditure, and Austria, Ireland, and Switzerland for the outcome of female LFP rates. Note that we use only pre-intervention demeaned outcomes as predictors. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options.
Figure 6
Placebo results.
Notes: Thick lines are Japan's SC estimates and the other lines are placebo SC estimates. We calculate placebo SC estimates by assigning the “label” of the intervention status to each control unit, using all the other control units as a donor pool. Note that the composition of donor pools (control units) is different depending on the outcome variables due to data constraints. For baseline SC estimates (bold black line), we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options. For placebo SC estimates (colored line), we implement synth without nested and allopt, because nested and allopt options sometimes result in optimization errors in some placebo trials.
Table A1
Institutional settings of LTCI programs in Germany and Japan, 2008 (Campbell et al., 2010)
| Germany | Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy objective | Support family caregivers | Decrease burden of family caregivers |
| Policy design | Contain spending to within the premium level set by law | Increase expenditures as services become more available |
| Organized and managed | Sickness funds (but LTC is managed separately) | LTC insurance section of the municipal government or their coalitions |
| Financing | Premiums | Half by premiums, half by taxes |
| 1.95% of income up to a ceiling | 1/3 of premium revenue from those age 65+, with 6 premium levels based on income | |
| 2/3 from those ages 40–64 at 1% of income, up to a ceiling | ||
| Regional differences | No difference in premium levels | For those age 65+, premiums linked to local spending level |
| For those ages 40–64, pooled at national level and redistributed; municipalities having low income levels and more residents age 75+ receive more | ||
| Population covered | All ages | Unconditional for those age 65+ |
| Limited to age-related diseases for those ages 40–64 | ||
| Percentage of those age 65+ who are eligible | 10.50% | 17% |
| Percentage of those age 65+ who are receiving benefits | 10.5% (all of those eligible receive benefits) | 13.5% (20% of those eligible have not chosen to receive benefits) |
| Eligibility levels | Three (plus a limited additional hardship level in HCBS) | Two for the “preventive care” program, five for regular LTC insurance |
| Benefit ceilings per month ($ PPP) | No copayment or deductible | 10% copayment (included below) |
| Cash: $250–$794 plus caregiver pension premiums | Services only | |
| HCBS: $490–$1,730 (hardship: $2,260) | HCBS preventive care: $430–$950 | |
| Institutional care: $1,200–$1,730 | HCBS regular program: $1,440–$3,400 | |
| Room-and-board costs not covered; low income covered under public assistance | Institutional care: $1,680–$3,670 | |
| One-third of room-and-board costs covered, up to all costs paid by LTC insurance if income level is low | ||
| Fee schedule for services | Negotiated regionally between sickness funds and providers | Negotiated nationally, conversion factor for regional cost differences |
[i] Source: Exhibit 3 of Campbell et al. (2010). HCBS is home and community-based services.
Table A2
LTC spending on the elderly per person aged 65 and older (USD, PPP, 2005)
[i] Source: Exhibit 2 of Campbell et al., (2010).
Table A3
Variable definitions and sources
| Outcomes (1980–2013) | Definition | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Public expenditure on benefits in kind for the elderly (% of GDP) | Public expenditure on benefits in kind for the elderly as percentages of GDP | OECD Database |
| Public expenditure on benefits in kind for the elderly (per elderly person) | Public expenditure on benefits in kind for the elderly per aged 65 and older, at constant prices (2010) and constant PPPs (2010) in USD | OECD Database |
| Total public expenditure on health care (% of GDP) | Total public expenditure on health care, as a percentage of GDP | OECD Database |
| Total public expenditure on health care (per capita) | Total public expenditure on health care per head, at constant prices (2010) and constant PPPs (2010) in USD | OECD Database |
| Female labour force participation rate by age cohort | Ratio of women in the labor force in an age cohort to the female population of the same age cohort | OECD Database |
| Predictors other than pre-intervention outcomes (1980–1999) | Definition | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Per capita real GDP | Expenditure-side real GDP (million US$, 2005, PPP) divided by population | PWT8.1 |
| Child population (%) | Population aged under 15 as % of population. | OECD Database |
| Elderly population (%) | Population aged 65 and older as % of population | OECD Database |
| Employment in agriculture (%) | Employment in agriculture as % of civilian employment | CWS |
| Employment in industry (%) | Employment in industry as % of civilian employment | CWS |
| Employment in services (%) | Employment in services as % of civilian employment | CWS |
| Annual growth rate of per capita real GDP (%) | Annual growth rate of per capita real GDP (%) | PWT8.1 |
| Annual growth rate of population (%) | Annual growth rate of population (%) | OECD Database |
| Annual growth rate of child population (%) | Annual growth rate of child population (%) | OECD Database |
| Annual growth rate of elderly population (%) | Annual growth rate of elderly population (%) | OECD Database |
[i] Notes: CWS and PWT 8.1 indicate “Comparative Welfare State Dataset” (Brady et al. (2014) and “Penn World Table 8.1” (Feenstra et al. (2015), respectively. Expenditure data based on the OECD database are from the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX). Demographic data based on OECD databases are from the OECD Employment and Labour Force Statistics.
Table A4
Outcome: in-kind benefits for the elderly (% of GDP)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0.066 | 0.088 | 0.076 |
| Austria | 0.497 | - | - |
| Belgium | 0.155 | 0 | 0.515 |
| Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0.023 |
| Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0 | 0.489 | - |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0 | 0.134 | 0.349 |
| Spain | 0.28 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0.002 | 0.037 | 0.037 |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0.083 | 0 |
| UnitedStates | 0 | 0.169 | 0 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1980) | 0.101 | 0.108 | 0.101 | 0.099 |
| Lagged outcome (1981) | 0.104 | 0.108 | 0.101 | 0.102 |
| Lagged outcome (1982) | 0.110 | 0.108 | 0.098 | 0.102 |
| Lagged outcome (1983) | 0.110 | 0.108 | 0.095 | 0.101 |
| Lagged outcome (1984) | 0.109 | 0.108 | 0.094 | 0.097 |
| Lagged outcome (1985) | 0.109 | 0.108 | 0.090 | 0.099 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 0.122 | 0.106 | 0.089 | 0.099 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 0.115 | 0.130 | 0.124 | 0.131 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 0.114 | 0.132 | 0.133 | 0.136 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 0.120 | 0.132 | 0.130 | 0.138 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 0.127 | 0.162 | 0.163 | 0.161 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 0.138 | 0.170 | 0.176 | 0.170 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 0.153 | 0.162 | 0.191 | 0.187 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 0.167 | 0.169 | 0.204 | 0.197 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 0.182 | 0.187 | 0.204 | 0.195 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 0.214 | 0.200 | 0.204 | 0.217 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 0.221 | 0.227 | 0.213 | 0.229 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 0.241 | 0.225 | 0.220 | 0.221 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 0.186 | 0.275 | 0.278 | 0.279 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 0.431 | 0.288 | 0.262 | 0.269 |
| GDP per capita | 22.805 | 20.622 | 22.335 | 19.252 |
| Share of children (%) | 18.919 | 19.095 | 19.279 | 19.638 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 12.294 | 14.261 | 14.092 | 14.207 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 7.409 | 8.473 | 8.354 | 8.533 |
| Share of industry (%) | 34.082 | 33.070 | 31.543 | 30.437 |
| Share of service (%) | 58.509 | 58.439 | 60.079 | 61.009 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 2.827 | 3.007 | 2.810 | 2.880 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.436 | 0.387 | 0.429 | 0.306 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.351 | −1.447 | −1.667 | −1.286 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.219 | 0.755 | 1.274 | 1.173 |
Table A5
Outcome: in-kind benefits for the elderly (per elderly person)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0 | 0.043 | 0.01 |
| Austria | 0.591 | - | - |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0.549 |
| Denmark | 0 | 0.027 | 0.034 |
| Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0 | 0.586 | - |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Portugal | 0 | 0.148 | 0.137 |
| Spain | 0.4 | 0 | 0.233 |
| Sweden | 0 | 0.034 | 0.028 |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0.001 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UnitedStates | 0 | 0.159 | 0 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1980) | 245.8 | 246.6 | 258.9 | 243.3 |
| Lagged outcome (1981) | 254.4 | 252.9 | 258.5 | 248.3 |
| Lagged outcome (1982) | 269.5 | 260.4 | 254.3 | 254.7 |
| Lagged outcome (1983) | 273.9 | 266.9 | 247.9 | 254.4 |
| Lagged outcome (1984) | 276.4 | 273.3 | 249.0 | 251.0 |
| Lagged outcome (1985) | 276.9 | 280.4 | 244.5 | 259.9 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 312.2 | 287.3 | 246.9 | 272.9 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 298.9 | 298.0 | 297.5 | 297.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 305.5 | 309.0 | 324.9 | 316.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 324.6 | 312.7 | 320.4 | 321.4 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 344.0 | 364.3 | 397.9 | 384.3 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 366.8 | 371.6 | 411.0 | 389.7 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 393.5 | 395.9 | 442.5 | 439.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 412.0 | 406.4 | 455.3 | 448.8 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 438.7 | 454.6 | 461.5 | 458.1 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 509.5 | 479.7 | 481.7 | 524.8 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 519.4 | 556.6 | 504.2 | 544.2 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 548.3 | 560.8 | 520.0 | 534.3 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 404.8 | 597.0 | 601.3 | 582.7 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 909.2 | 675.8 | 606.2 | 599.0 |
| GDP per capita | 22.805 | 19.628 | 22.131 | 19.639 |
| Share of children (%) | 18.919 | 19.002 | 18.900 | 19.252 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 12.294 | 14.322 | 14.231 | 14.435 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 7.409 | 10.037 | 9.210 | 7.436 |
| Share of industry (%) | 34.082 | 34.314 | 32.060 | 30.174 |
| Share of service (%) | 58.509 | 55.548 | 58.719 | 62.287 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 2.827 | 3.204 | 2.829 | 2.653 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.436 | 0.347 | 0.362 | 0.252 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.351 | −1.695 | −1.857 | −1.423 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.219 | 0.778 | 1.364 | 1.174 |
Table A6
Outcome: public health expenditure (% of GDP)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0.246 | 0.278 | - |
| Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denmark | 0.155 | 0.264 | 0.253 |
| Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 0.14 | 0.146 | 0.289 |
| Ireland | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0.053 | 0.083 | 0.23 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0.123 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0.357 | - | - |
| UnitedStates | 0 | 0.118 | 0.016 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1980) | 4.374 | 4.480 | 4.477 | 4.533 |
| Lagged outcome (1981) | 4.438 | 4.543 | 4.484 | 4.599 |
| Lagged outcome (1982) | 4.548 | 4.467 | 4.487 | 4.555 |
| Lagged outcome (1983) | 4.695 | 4.552 | 4.488 | 4.487 |
| Lagged outcome (1984) | 4.566 | 4.587 | 4.528 | 4.413 |
| Lagged outcome (1985) | 4.527 | 4.586 | 4.571 | 4.506 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 4.593 | 4.556 | 4.555 | 4.501 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 4.619 | 4.542 | 4.554 | 4.520 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 4.510 | 4.499 | 4.538 | 4.594 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 4.434 | 4.437 | 4.484 | 4.511 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 4.396 | 4.500 | 4.542 | 4.558 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 4.495 | 4.706 | 4.726 | 4.722 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 4.707 | 4.881 | 4.822 | 4.807 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 4.999 | 5.013 | 4.992 | 5.056 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 5.147 | 4.944 | 4.947 | 4.984 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 5.098 | 4.994 | 5.105 | 5.119 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 4.982 | 5.024 | 5.134 | 5.194 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 5.180 | 5.217 | 5.130 | 5.149 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 5.314 | 5.301 | 5.153 | 5.150 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 5.560 | 5.562 | 5.448 | 5.420 |
| GDP per capita | 22.805 | 21.771 | 22.995 | 21.197 |
| Share of children (%) | 18.919 | 20.636 | 21.330 | 20.261 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 12.294 | 13.853 | 12.914 | 13.982 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 7.409 | 5.538 | 7.304 | 9.272 |
| Share of industry (%) | 34.082 | 28.957 | 27.643 | 30.068 |
| Share of service (%) | 58.509 | 65.539 | 64.878 | 60.761 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 2.827 | 2.634 | 2.651 | 2.644 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.436 | 0.539 | 0.697 | 0.384 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.351 | −0.885 | −1.011 | −1.213 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.219 | 0.689 | 0.775 | 0.767 |
Table A7
Outcome: public health expenditure (per capita)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0.303 | 0.313 | - |
| Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0.025 | 0.227 |
| Denmark | 0.031 | 0 | 0.065 |
| Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 0.095 | 0.09 | 0 |
| Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0.026 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0.002 | 0.189 | 0.278 |
| Spain | 0.323 | - | - |
| Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 0.055 | 0.117 | 0.03 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0 | 0.169 |
| UnitedStates | 0.192 | 0.239 | 0.231 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1980) | 971.5 | 1012.0 | 1016.2 | 1011.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1981) | 1017.4 | 1031.6 | 1050.4 | 1060.0 |
| Lagged outcome (1982) | 1070.3 | 1044.4 | 1045.2 | 1079.2 |
| Lagged outcome (1983) | 1139.1 | 1119.5 | 1090.1 | 1106.8 |
| Lagged outcome (1984) | 1152.2 | 1168.3 | 1159.3 | 1123.9 |
| Lagged outcome (1985) | 1189.6 | 1191.1 | 1202.7 | 1175.7 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 1244.9 | 1226.9 | 1253.5 | 1227.1 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 1312.1 | 1276.7 | 1296.2 | 1274.8 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 1356.2 | 1340.8 | 1341.5 | 1336.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 1393.2 | 1395.3 | 1391.5 | 1372.4 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 1438.5 | 1458.7 | 1452.0 | 1461.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 1505.3 | 1529.2 | 1539.1 | 1559.8 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 1578.7 | 1613.3 | 1603.8 | 1622.4 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 1669.8 | 1670.6 | 1668.1 | 1679.8 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 1741.1 | 1712.4 | 1717.5 | 1705.3 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 1769.0 | 1735.9 | 1712.6 | 1709.3 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 1769.5 | 1782.3 | 1771.7 | 1756.6 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 1844.7 | 1831.8 | 1829.2 | 1831.5 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 1870.6 | 1890.5 | 1894.8 | 1906.1 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 1963.1 | 1983.6 | 1981.5 | 2000.0 |
| GDP per capita | 22.805 | 23.067 | 24.301 | 22.647 |
| Share of children (%) | 18.919 | 21.111 | 21.309 | 20.602 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 12.294 | 12.691 | 12.430 | 13.094 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 7.409 | 7.476 | 7.437 | 7.694 |
| Share of industry (%) | 34.082 | 28.452 | 28.306 | 29.255 |
| Share of service (%) | 58.509 | 64.091 | 64.074 | 63.051 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 2.827 | 2.499 | 2.533 | 2.730 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.436 | 0.807 | 0.896 | 0.650 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.351 | −1.423 | −1.037 | −1.072 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.219 | 1.248 | 1.091 | 1.072 |
Table A8
Outcome: female labor force participation rate (ages 40–44)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0.074 | 0 | 0.754 |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0.354 | 0.581 | - |
| NewZealand | 0.519 | - | - |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0.103 |
| Sweden | 0.053 | 0.419 | 0 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0 | 0.143 |
| UnitedStates | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 68.793 | 67.967 | 66.711 | 63.126 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 68.386 | 68.241 | 67.130 | 64.465 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 68.076 | 68.506 | 67.802 | 66.657 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 68.750 | 68.936 | 69.393 | 69.099 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 69.582 | 69.886 | 70.122 | 70.940 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 70.377 | 70.019 | 70.176 | 71.123 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 70.513 | 70.396 | 70.894 | 71.455 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 70.291 | 68.680 | 69.979 | 70.692 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 69.792 | 70.023 | 69.595 | 71.663 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 69.469 | 69.420 | 69.421 | 72.359 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 69.464 | 69.846 | 70.239 | 72.987 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 70.874 | 70.048 | 70.470 | 72.935 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 70.175 | 71.158 | 71.900 | 72.357 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 69.543 | 71.728 | 72.060 | 72.441 |
| GDP per capita | 25.479 | 22.040 | 23.947 | 24.747 |
| Share of children (%) | 17.315 | 20.248 | 16.895 | 21.091 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 13.419 | 13.195 | 16.530 | 12.396 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 6.511 | 8.505 | 6.021 | 5.403 |
| Share of industry (%) | 33.692 | 27.659 | 30.670 | 25.484 |
| Share of service (%) | 59.796 | 63.821 | 63.309 | 68.954 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 4.126 | 3.151 | 3.413 | 3.273 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.326 | 0.739 | 0.220 | 1.049 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.637 | −1.090 | −1.185 | −0.974 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.521 | 1.383 | 1.335 | 1.277 |
Table A9
Outcome: female labor force participation rate (ages 45–49)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0.23 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denmark | 0.157 | 0.315 | 0 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0.378 | - | - |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0.002 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 0 | 0.346 | - |
| Sweden | 0.327 | 0.338 | 0 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0 | 0.77 |
| UnitedStates | 0.136 | 0 | 0 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 68.095 | 68.345 | 66.704 | 66.679 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 68.445 | 69.243 | 68.221 | 66.829 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 69.318 | 69.972 | 69.176 | 67.203 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 70.652 | 69.846 | 68.560 | 68.895 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 71.711 | 71.180 | 70.682 | 70.238 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 72.120 | 71.292 | 70.978 | 70.137 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 72.009 | 71.608 | 71.323 | 72.161 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 71.915 | 71.521 | 72.215 | 72.580 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 71.197 | 71.091 | 71.393 | 73.261 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 71.319 | 71.973 | 73.068 | 73.384 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 71.609 | 71.872 | 73.026 | 74.470 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 72.243 | 71.866 | 73.184 | 73.988 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 72.374 | 72.282 | 73.227 | 74.962 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 71.816 | 73.243 | 74.415 | 76.385 |
| GDP per capita | 25.479 | 25.477 | 22.213 | 22.777 |
| Share of children (%) | 17.315 | 17.728 | 18.087 | 18.943 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 13.419 | 15.843 | 15.726 | 15.664 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 6.511 | 5.270 | 6.346 | 2.179 |
| Share of industry (%) | 33.692 | 29.198 | 28.755 | 29.087 |
| Share of service (%) | 59.796 | 65.533 | 64.799 | 68.734 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 4.126 | 3.173 | 3.847 | 3.653 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.326 | 0.367 | 0.328 | 0.264 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.637 | −0.781 | −1.044 | −0.097 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.521 | 0.900 | 0.771 | 0.540 |
Table A10
Outcome: female labor force participation rate (ages 50–54)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denmark | 0.189 | 0.25 | 0.345 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0.176 | 0.079 | 0.107 |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0.129 |
| Portugal | 0.191 | 0.163 | 0.199 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0.232 | - | - |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0.461 | - |
| UnitedStates | 0.212 | 0.048 | 0.22 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 61.671 | 61.806 | 62.115 | 61.415 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 61.800 | 62.525 | 62.456 | 61.892 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 63.350 | 63.406 | 63.038 | 63.346 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 64.216 | 64.011 | 64.258 | 64.147 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 65.526 | 65.492 | 65.353 | 65.553 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 66.506 | 66.621 | 66.228 | 66.634 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 67.606 | 66.536 | 66.748 | 66.651 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 66.897 | 67.107 | 67.576 | 67.535 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 67.401 | 66.605 | 66.941 | 66.325 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 67.111 | 66.929 | 66.570 | 66.209 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 66.900 | 66.790 | 66.535 | 66.492 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 67.882 | 67.831 | 67.754 | 67.683 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 67.811 | 67.918 | 68.425 | 68.606 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 67.894 | 69.007 | 69.368 | 69.911 |
| GDP per capita | 25.479 | 24.429 | 22.430 | 24.880 |
| Share of children (%) | 17.315 | 18.642 | 18.672 | 18.848 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 13.419 | 15.096 | 15.231 | 14.593 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 6.511 | 6.663 | 5.489 | 6.994 |
| Share of industry (%) | 33.692 | 29.091 | 29.796 | 28.320 |
| Share of service (%) | 59.796 | 64.246 | 64.815 | 64.687 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 4.126 | 3.580 | 3.817 | 3.491 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.326 | 0.428 | 0.271 | 0.446 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.637 | −0.838 | −0.588 | −0.758 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.521 | 0.861 | 0.651 | 0.676 |
Table A11
Outcome: female labor force participation rate (ages 55–59)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0.16 | 0.473 | - |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0.017 |
| Denmark | 0.047 | 0 | 0 |
| Finland | 0.15 | 0.198 | 0.291 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0.12 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0.085 | 0 | 0.376 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0.094 | 0.329 | 0.196 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UnitedStates | 0.464 | - | - |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 49.863 | 50.187 | 50.489 | 50.848 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 50.806 | 50.640 | 51.522 | 50.685 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 50.919 | 51.550 | 52.017 | 52.105 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 52.208 | 52.932 | 52.897 | 53.244 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 53.944 | 54.066 | 54.152 | 54.459 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 55.500 | 54.725 | 54.979 | 55.372 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 55.556 | 55.269 | 54.811 | 55.271 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 56.404 | 55.283 | 55.097 | 54.865 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 56.359 | 56.602 | 55.988 | 55.646 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 56.965 | 57.053 | 56.945 | 56.623 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 58.088 | 57.869 | 58.617 | 58.233 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 58.670 | 57.949 | 57.486 | 57.383 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 59.070 | 58.635 | 58.121 | 57.892 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 58.667 | 59.958 | 59.529 | 60.042 |
| GDP per capita | 25.479 | 27.684 | 24.744 | 19.337 |
| Share of children (%) | 17.315 | 20.604 | 20.134 | 19.541 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 13.419 | 13.281 | 13.950 | 14.310 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 6.511 | 5.266 | 5.308 | 10.276 |
| Share of industry (%) | 33.692 | 26.479 | 25.959 | 29.771 |
| Share of service (%) | 59.796 | 68.222 | 68.634 | 59.953 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 4.126 | 2.968 | 3.021 | 4.243 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.326 | 0.858 | 0.830 | 0.389 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.637 | −0.424 | −0.437 | −1.097 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.521 | 0.717 | 0.879 | 1.296 |
Table A12
Outcome: difference in female LFP rate (ages 50–54 and ages 45–49)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denmark | 0.189 | 0.25 | 0.345 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0.176 | 0.079 | 0.107 |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0.129 |
| Portugal | 0.191 | 0.163 | 0.199 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0.232 | - | - |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0.461 | - |
| UnitedStates | 0.212 | 0.048 | 0.22 |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 61.671 | 61.806 | 62.115 | 61.415 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 61.800 | 62.525 | 62.456 | 61.892 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 63.350 | 63.406 | 63.038 | 63.346 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 64.216 | 64.011 | 64.258 | 64.147 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 65.526 | 65.492 | 65.353 | 65.553 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 66.506 | 66.621 | 66.228 | 66.634 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 67.606 | 66.536 | 66.748 | 66.651 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 66.897 | 67.107 | 67.576 | 67.535 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 67.401 | 66.605 | 66.941 | 66.325 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 67.111 | 66.929 | 66.570 | 66.209 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 66.900 | 66.790 | 66.535 | 66.492 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 67.882 | 67.831 | 67.754 | 67.683 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 67.811 | 67.918 | 68.425 | 68.606 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 67.894 | 69.007 | 69.368 | 69.911 |
| GDP per capita | 25.479 | 24.429 | 22.430 | 24.880 |
| Share of children (%) | 17.315 | 18.642 | 18.672 | 18.848 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 13.419 | 15.096 | 15.231 | 14.593 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 6.511 | 6.663 | 5.489 | 6.994 |
| Share of industry (%) | 33.692 | 29.091 | 29.796 | 28.320 |
| Share of service (%) | 59.796 | 64.246 | 64.815 | 64.687 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 4.126 | 3.580 | 3.817 | 3.491 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.326 | 0.428 | 0.271 | 0.446 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.637 | −0.838 | −0.588 | −0.758 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.521 | 0.861 | 0.651 | 0.676 |
Table A13
Outcome: difference in female LFP rate (ages 55–59 and ages 45–49)
| Weights | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Australia | 0.16 | 0.473 | - |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0.017 |
| Denmark | 0.047 | 0 | 0 |
| Finland | 0.15 | 0.198 | 0.291 |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NewZealand | 0 | 0 | 0.12 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Portugal | 0.085 | 0 | 0.376 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0.094 | 0.329 | 0.196 |
| UnitedKingdom | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UnitedStates | 0.464 | - | - |
| Predictor values | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictor | Treated | Synthetic control 1 | Synthetic control 2 | Synthetic control 3 |
| Lagged outcome (1986) | 49.863 | 50.187 | 50.489 | 50.848 |
| Lagged outcome (1987) | 50.806 | 50.640 | 51.522 | 50.685 |
| Lagged outcome (1988) | 50.919 | 51.550 | 52.017 | 52.105 |
| Lagged outcome (1989) | 52.208 | 52.932 | 52.897 | 53.244 |
| Lagged outcome (1990) | 53.944 | 54.066 | 54.152 | 54.459 |
| Lagged outcome (1991) | 55.500 | 54.725 | 54.979 | 55.372 |
| Lagged outcome (1992) | 55.556 | 55.269 | 54.811 | 55.271 |
| Lagged outcome (1993) | 56.404 | 55.283 | 55.097 | 54.865 |
| Lagged outcome (1994) | 56.359 | 56.602 | 55.988 | 55.646 |
| Lagged outcome (1995) | 56.965 | 57.053 | 56.945 | 56.623 |
| Lagged outcome (1996) | 58.088 | 57.869 | 58.617 | 58.233 |
| Lagged outcome (1997) | 58.670 | 57.949 | 57.486 | 57.383 |
| Lagged outcome (1998) | 59.070 | 58.635 | 58.121 | 57.892 |
| Lagged outcome (1999) | 58.667 | 59.958 | 59.529 | 60.042 |
| GDP per capita | 25.479 | 27.684 | 24.744 | 19.337 |
| Share of children (%) | 17.315 | 20.604 | 20.134 | 19.541 |
| Share of the elderly (%) | 13.419 | 13.281 | 13.950 | 14.310 |
| Share of agriculture (%) | 6.511 | 5.266 | 5.308 | 10.276 |
| Share of industry (%) | 33.692 | 26.479 | 25.959 | 29.771 |
| Share of service (%) | 59.796 | 68.222 | 68.634 | 59.953 |
| GDP per capita (growth rate) | 4.126 | 2.968 | 3.021 | 4.243 |
| Population (growth rate) | 0.326 | 0.858 | 0.830 | 0.389 |
| Share of children (growth rate) | −2.637 | −0.424 | −0.437 | −1.097 |
| Share of the elderly (growth rate) | 3.521 | 0.717 | 0.879 | 1.296 |
Figure A1
Placebo results for demeaned outcomes.
Notes: Thick lines are Japan's SC estimates and the other lines are placebo SC estimates. We calculate placebo SC estimates by assigning the “label” of the intervention status to each control unit, using all the other control units as a donor pool. Note that the composition of donor pools (control units) is different depending on the outcome variables due to data constraints. For baseline SC estimates (bold black line), we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options. For placebo SC estimates (colored line), we implement synth without nested and allopt, because nested and allopt options sometimes result in optimization errors in some placebo trials.
Figure A2
Extended placebo tests for in-kind benefits for the elderly (% of GDP).
Notes: The definitions of test statistics 1–4 are based on Eqs. (A.3) and (A.4). In each graph, the X-axis shows the values of test statistics and the Y-axis indicates the cumulative probability density of placebo-based test statistics. The large circle shows the value of a baseline test statistic for Japan and the small circles show the values of leave-one-out test statistics for Japan. Note that the nested and allopt options in the synth command in Stata are not used in all estimations, including baseline and leave-one-out estimations for Japan.
Figure A3
Extended placebo tests for the female LFP rate of ages 50–54.
Notes: The definitions of test statistics 1–4 are based on Eqs. (A.3) and (A.4). In each graph, the X-axis shows the values of test statistics and the Y-axis indicates the cumulative probability density of the placebo-based test statistics. The large circle shows the value of a baseline test statistic for Japan and the small circles show the values of leave-one-out test statistics for Japan. Note that the nested and allopt options in the synth command in Stata are not used in all estimations, including baseline and leave-one-out estimations for Japan.
Figure A4
Extended placebo tests for the female LFP rate of ages 55–59.
Notes: The definitions of test statistics 1–4 are based on Eqs. (A.3) and (A.4). In each graph, the X-axis shows the values of test statistics and the Y-axis indicates the cumulative probability density of placebo-based test statistics. The large circle shows the value of a baseline test statistic for Japan and small circles show the values of leave-one-out test statistics for Japan. Note that the nested and allopt options in the synth command in Stata is not used in all estimations, including baseline and leave-one-out estimations for Japan.
Figure A5
Extended placebo tests for in-kind benefits for the elderly per elderly person.
Note: see the note in Figure A2 for the estimation procedure.
Figure A6
Extended placebo tests for public health expenditure (% of GDP).
Note: see the note in Figure A2 for the estimation procedure.
Figure A7
Extended placebo tests for public health expenditure per capita.
Note: see the note in Figure A2 for the estimation procedure.
Figure A8
Extended placebo tests for Female labor force participation rate (ages 40–44).
Note: see the note in Figure A2 for the estimation procedure.
Figure A9
Extended placebo tests for female labor force participation rate (ages 45–49).
Note: see the note in Figure A2 for the estimation procedure.
Figure A10
Extended placebo tests for female labor force participation rate (ages 50–54).
Note: see the note in Figure A2 for the estimation procedure.
Table A14
Changes in in-kind benefits for the elderly (% of GDP)
| Change in in-kind benefits for the elderly (% of GDP) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Country | 1999–2005 (% point) | Country | 1999–2010 (% point) |
| Japan | 0.713 | Japan | 1.096 |
| Netherlands | 0.243 | Spain | 0.469 |
| Spain | 0.183 | Finland | 0.354 |
| United Kingdom | 0.160 | Netherlands | 0.343 |
| Finland | 0.152 | France | 0.261 |
| France | 0.148 | Austria | 0.216 |
| Austria | 0.108 | United Kingdom | 0.158 |
| Australia | 0.043 | Denmark | 0.129 |
| Denmark | 0.035 | Switzerland | 0.081 |
| Portugal | 0.013 | Belgium | 0.079 |
| Switzerland | 0.010 | Portugal | 0.061 |
| Italy | 0.004 | Italy | 0.033 |
| Germany | 0.002 | Germany | 0.007 |
| United States | 0.000 | New Zealand | −0.001 |
| New Zealand | −0.001 | Ireland | −0.009 |
| Belgium | −0.016 | United States | −0.010 |
| Sweden | −0.067 | Sweden | −0.104 |
| Ireland | −0.110 | Norway | −0.192 |
| Norway | −0.410 | Australia | −0.444 |
[i] Notes: Calculated by the authors based on OECD Database. See also Table A3 in Appendix A2 for the definition of in-kind benefits for the elderly (% of GDP).
Figure A11
SC estimation with limited donor pool countries 1.
Notes: See the note and the legend in Figure 1 for detailed explanations of the graph. Due to data availability, the first year of our sample for the outcome of female LFPs is 1986. Countries with relatively high growth in the in-kind benefits for the elderly in the periods 1999–2005 or 1999–2010 (i.e., Austria, Finland, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom) are excluded from the donor pool. In addition, due to lack of data, Canada is excluded from the donor pool for the outcome of in-kind benefit for the elderly, Norway for the outcome of public health expenditure, and Ireland and Switzerland for the outcome of female LFP rates. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options.
Figure A12
SC estimation with limited donor pool countries 2.
Notes: See the note and the legend in Figure 1 for detailed explanations of the graph. Due to data availability, the first year of our sample for the outcome of female LFP rates is 1986. Italy, Belgium, and Portugal are excluded from the donor pool due to zero values of in-kind benefits for the elderly in the period 1980–1989 and Australia and Sweden are also dropped from the donor pool because of fluctuating values in in-kind benefits for the elderly in the pre-intervention period. In addition, due to lack of data, Canada is excluded from the donor pool for the outcome of in-kind benefit for the elderly, Norway for the outcome of public health expenditure, and Austria, Ireland, and Switzerland for the outcome of female LFP rates. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options.
Figure A13
In-time placebo SC estimation with a backdated intervention year.
Notes: See the note and the legend in Figure 1 for detailed explanations of the graph. Due to data availability, the first year of our sample for the outcome of female LFP is 1986. In this SC estimation, the backdated intervention year is set as 1993 (solid vertical line) and therefore the period 1993–1999 is interpreted as the in-time placebo period. Due to lack of data, Canada is excluded from the donor pool for the outcome of in-kind benefit for the elderly, Norway for the outcome of public health expenditure, and Austria, Ireland, and Switzerland for the outcome of female LFP rates. For SC estimation, we use the synth command in Stata with the nested and allopt options.