Recent vs Historical Migrants: A Study on the Canadian Provincial Trade-Migration Nexus

Nusrate Aziz; Ahmed Aziz

doi:10.2478/izajodm-2023-0007

Figures & Tables

Interprovincial and International Migration of Canada (1971–2016)Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM Tables 0510018 & 0510037).

History of Interprovincial Inflow of migration (1971–2020)Source: Authors’ calculation, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM, Table 1710002101).

Interprovincial Export and Import of Canadian Provinces (1992–2008)Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM Tables 1210008501 and 1210008601).

Data and Variables

Variable	Description	Data Sources
T_ij	Bilateral exports of goods and services	Tables 12-10-0085 and 12-10-0086 from Statistics Canada
	Bilateral exports of goods	Tables 12-10-0085 and 12-10-0086 from Statistics Canada
	Bilateral exports of services	Tables 12-10-0085 and 12-10-0086 from Statistics Canada

Migration

Historical Migrants (M_{ji (hs)}, M_(sum-hs)	The bilateral stock of historical migration. The historical migrants’ variable includes the stock of migrants that came and live in a particular province any time after 1871 from a partner province. The stock of historical migrants includes people who migrated from 1871 to 2008. M_ji(hs) is the bilateral stock of historical migration in province j, M_(sum-hs) is the sum of the reciprocal stock of historical migration	Constructed using census data of 1981 and Table 17-10-0022-01 (CANSIM 051-0019) from Statistics Canada
Recent Migrants I (M_{ji (rs)}, M_(sum-rs))	The bilateral stock of recent migration. The recent stock of migrants includes the migrants that came from a partner province after 1975 and live in a particular province. The stock of recent migrants includes people who migrated from 1975 to 2008. M_ji(rs) is the bilateral stock of recent migration in province j, M_(sum-rs) is the sum of reciprocal stock of recent migration	Constructed using census data of 1981 and Table 17-10-0022-01 (CANSIM 051-0019) from Statistics Canada
Recent Migrants II (M_ji & M_{ij, M(sum)})	The bilateral flow of interprovincial migrants. Annual observations of interprovincial migrants between 1992 and 2008. M_ji is the annual inflow of migrants, M_ij is the annual outflow of migrants, M_(sum) is the sum of the reciprocal (inflow and outflow) of migrants.	Table 17-10-0022-01 (CANSIM 051-0019) from Statistics Canada.

Proximity

Dist_ij	Bilateral simple distance. Distance between capitals of provinces in a bilateral set-up.	GlobalFeed.com (Distance calculator Canada)
Dist_ij	Great circle distance (using the geographic coordinate system) and provincial population weighted distance. We follow Head and Mayer (2002) to construct these variables.	Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1

Language

Lang_ij	Combination of provincial language. Difference between the percentage of France speaking population in a bilateral set up of provinces. The larger the gap means the bigger the combination of English and French speakers.	Data source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Canada
	English dummy. Dummy equals one if the official language of both provinces is English, otherwise zero.	Constructed
	French dummy. Dummy equals one if the official language of both provinces is French, otherwise zero.	Constructed
	English and French speaking pair-dummy. Dummy equals one if the official language in one province in the pair speaks English and another province speaks French, otherwise zero.	Constructed

Trade Liberalization

RTAij	A dummy variable. Canadian interprovincial regional trade agreements (RTA) have been signed between Canadian provinces since the early 1990s.	Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
TILMAij	A dummy variable. Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement (TILMA) in 2007 between British Columbia and Alberta.	Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
APAij	A dummy variable. Atlantic Procurement Agreement (APA) in 1996 between New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.	Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
OPPij	A dummy variable. Agreement on the Opening of Public Procurement (OPP) in 1993 between New Brunswick and Quebec.	Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)

Instruments

Imputed annual flow	Instrumental variable for bilateral migrants’ flow. Imputed bilateral annual migrants’ flow.	Constructed by closely following the method proposed by Peri and Requena (2010).
Imputed historical stock	Instrumental variable for lifetime stock of migrants. The imputed stock of migrants.	Constructed by closely following the method proposed by Peri and Requena (2010)
Imputed recent stock	Instrumental variable for recent stock of migrants. The imputed stock of migrants.	Constructed by closely following the method proposed by Peri and Requena (2010)

Estimated Results using FGLS with FE (GOODS & SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports)	GOODS & SERVICES			GOODS			SERVICES
Ln Mji	0.133^*** (0.027)			0.0520 (0.040)			0.0912^*** (0.020)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.493^*** (0.044)			0.365^*** (0.087)			0.600^*** (0.040)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.463^*** (0.044)			0.315^*** (0.083)			0.631^*** (0.042)
Ln DISTij	−1.033^*** (0.032)	−0.662^*** (0.048)	−0.732^*** (0.044)	−1.084^*** (0.051)	−0.774^*** (0.092)	−0.849^*** (0.083)	−1.026^*** (0.028)	−0.509^*** (0.045)	−0.529^*** (0.044)
LANGij	0.962^*** (0.153)	1.349^*** (0.157)	1.296^*** (0.154)	0.824^*** (0.247)	1.186^*** (0.269)	1.097^*** (0.261)	1.027^*** (0.168)	1.514^*** (0.160)	1.496^*** (0.168)
RTAij	0.128^*** (0.041)	0.104^*** (0.038)	0.101^*** (0.039)	0.234^*** (0.075)	0.212^*** (0.073)	0.205^** (0.073)	0.172^*** (0.038)	0.129^*** (0.033)	0.106^*** (0.032)
CONSTANT	14.16^*** (0.466)	6.493^*** (0.895)	7.397^*** (0.851)	15.14^*** (0.724)	8.764^*** (1.750)	9.968^*** (1.618)	13.67^*** (0.378)	3.164^*** (0.818)	2.987^*** (0.834)

OBSERVATIONS	1224	1224	1224	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S)	Simple Distance			Great Circle Distance			Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji	0.184^** (0.076)			0.0894 (0.104)			0.0736 (0.126)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.254^** (0.101)			0.149 (0.139)			0.170 (0.167)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.237^** (0.094)			0.137 (0.129)			0.143 (0.155)
Ln DISTij	−0.683^*** (0.111)	−0.620^*** (0.131)	−0.642^*** (0.122)	−0.698^*** (0.131)	−0.646^*** (0.159)	−0.659^*** (0.147)	−0.624^*** (0.135)	−0.543^*** (0.165)	−0.569^*** (0.151)
LANGij	0.702 (0.503)	0.830 (0.534)	0.739 (0.510)	1.530^*** (0.532)	1.555^*** (0.544)	1.519^*** (0.537)	0.864^* (0.524)	0.974^* (0.541)	0.908^* (0.524)
RTAij	0.807^*** (0.188)	0.804^*** (0.189)	0.784^*** (0.188)	1.066^*** (0.215)	1.052^*** (0.218)	1.046^*** (0.217)	1.052^*** (0.209)	1.044^*** (0.211)	1.036^*** (0.211)
CONSTANT	11.49^*** (1.470)	9.477^*** (2.193)	9.918^*** (2.011)	12.02^*** (1.813)	10.59^*** (2.802)	10.87^*** (2.558)	11.80^*** (2.078)	9.746^*** (3.243)	10.31^*** (2.950)

OBSERVATIONS	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
WALD χ²	326.60^***	355.19^***	358.99^***	297.70^***	330.14^***	322.11^***	284.70^***	321.19^***	307.52^***
PSEUDO R2	0.972	0.973	0.973	0.971	0.971	0.971	0.970	0.969	0.969
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (GOODS)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports (G&S))	Simple Distance			Great Circle Distance			Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji	0.212^* (0.123)			0.199 (0.152)			0.169 (0.155)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.229^* (0.131)			0.236 (0.153)			0.243 (0.151)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.249^* (0.139)			0.229 (0.173)			0.217 (0.176)
Ln DISTij	−1.042^*** (0.150)	−1.002^*** (0.168)	−1.005^*** (0.163)	−0.922^*** (0.170)	−0.869^*** (0.181)	−0.894^*** (0.186)	−0.923^*** (0.166)	−0.840^*** (0.174)	−0.880^*** (0.181)
LANGij	1.983^** (0.653)	2.003^*** (0.650)	1.990^*** (0.646)	3.388^*** (0.656)	3.354^*** (0.663)	3.348^*** (0.651)	2.584^*** (0.639)	2.622^*** (0.640)	2.584^*** (0.633)
RTAij	1.156^*** (0.276)	1.170^*** (0.279)	1.144^*** (0.277)	1.540^*** (0.293)	1.532^*** (0.299)	1.523^*** (0.294)	1.458^*** (0.291)	1.442^*** (0.296)	1.438^*** (0.293)

OBSERVATIONS	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
F-STAT	138.07^***	150.40^***	141.46^***	144.96^***	155.09^***	148.19^***	127.12^***	137.78^***	130.20^***
CENTERED R2	0.832	0.834	0.834	0.810	0.812	0.812	0.807	0.810	0.809
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
HANSEN J STATISTICS (OVER ID TEST)	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified
STOCK – YOGO (2005) WEAK ID TEST	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (GOODS & SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports (G&S))	Simple Distance			Great Circle Distance			Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji	0.284^*** (0.105)			0.277^** (0.133)			0.266^** (0.132)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.331^*** (0.099)			0.349^*** (0.116)			0.370^*** (0.111)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.320^*** (0.112)			0.307^** (0.139)			0.313^** (0.138)
Ln DISTij	−0.915^*** (0.113)	−0.840^*** (0.119)	−0.880^*** (0.119)	−0.809^*** (0.133)	−0.718^*** (0.129)	−0.783^*** (0.137)	−0.790^*** (0.127)	−0.671^*** (0.125)	−0.749^*** (0.131)
LANGij	1.839^*** (0.427)	1.899^*** (0.420)	1.832^*** (0.412)	3.066^*** (0.424)	3.023^*** (0.431)	3.013^*** (0.417)	2.377^*** (0.418)	2.436^*** (0.414)	2.360^*** (0.404)
RTAij	1.033^*** (0.182)	1.043^*** (0.181)	1.017^*** (0.182)	1.355^*** (0.206)	1.334^*** (0.206)	1.335^*** (0.209)	1.295^*** (0.207)	1.270^*** (0.205)	1.270^*** (0.209)

OBSERVATIONS	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224
F-STAT	161.66^***	196.03^***	234.99^***	208.38^***	198.01^***	229.49^***	255.99^***	238.97^***	157.84^***
CENTERED R2	0.883	0.883	0.887	0.886	0.861	0.856	0.866	0.863	0.855
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
HANSEN J STATISTICS (OVER ID TEST)	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified
STOCK – YOGO (2005) WEAK ID TEST	Not Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Not Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Not Valid Instrument

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports (G&S))	Simple Distance			Great Circle Distance			Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji	0.380^*** (0.085)			0.342^*** (0.100)			0.360^*** (0.103)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.465^*** (0.072)			0.451^*** (0.077)			0.500^*** (0.072)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.443^*** (0.089)			0.403^*** (0.103)			0.440^*** (0.102)
Ln DISTij	−0.712^*** (0.081)	−0.588^*** (0.075)	−0.650^*** (0.085)	−0.667^*** (0.091)	−0.533^*** (0.075)	−0.611^*** (0.092)	−0.620^*** (0.092)	−0.460^*** (0.075)	−0.549^*** (0.089)
LANGij	1.986^*** (0.291)	2.089^*** (0.253)	1.994^*** (0.274)	2.949^*** (0.254)	2.885^*** (0.222)	2.878^*** (0.244)	2.405^*** (0.270)	2.475^*** (0.224)	2.392^*** (0.250)
RTAij	0.950^*** (0.147)	0.962^*** (0.135)	0.930^*** (0.143)	1.207^*** (0.156)	1.173^*** (0.146)	1.173^*** (0.157)	1.158^*** (0.161)	1.127^*** (0.149)	1.122^*** (0.160)

OBSERVATIONS	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
F-STAT	251.20^***	318.37^***	274.83^***	294.96^***	343.69^***	308.85^***	247.24^***	296.31^***	261.66^***
CENTERED R2	0.917	0.924	0.921	0.908	0.916	0.911	0.898	0.909	0.903
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
HANSEN J STATISTICS (OVER ID TEST)	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified	Exactly Identified
STOCK – YOGO (2005) WEAK ID TEST	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument	Valid Instrument

Fisher’s permutation test (sampling without replacement) of differences in coefficient estimates (POPULATION WEIGHTED DISTANCE)

H₀: M_ji(hs) = M_ji(rs)	H₀: M_ji(hs) = M_ji
Observed Difference = 0.057	Observed Difference = 0.134
Empirical P-Value = 0.03	Empirical P-Value = 0.00
Decision: Reject H₀ → M_ji(hs) and M_ji(rs) are statistically different.	Decision: Reject H₀ → M_ji(hs) and M_ji are statistically different.

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G)	Goods
Ln Mji	0.0736 (0.126)
Ln M (sum)		0.0960 (0.122)
Ln Mji(hs)			0.170 (0.167)
Ln M (sum-hs)				0.112 (0.139)
Ln Mji(rs)					0.143 (0.155)
Ln M (sum-rs)						0.130 (0.145)
Ln DISTij	−0.624^*** (0.135)	−0.606^*** (0.130)	−0.543^*** (0.165)	−0.593^*** (0.142)	−0.569^*** (0.151)	−0.580^*** (0.144)
LANGij	0.864^* (0.524)	0.882^* (0.516)	0.974^* (0.541)	0.916^* (0.523)	0.908^* (0.524)	0.889^* (0.513)
RTAij	1.052^*** (0.209)	1.057^*** (0.209)	1.044^*** (0.211)	1.050^*** (0.210)	1.036^*** (0.211)	1.037^*** (0.210)
CONSTANT	11.80^*** (2.078)	11.39^*** (2.096)	9.746^*** (3.243)	10.76^*** (2.825)	10.31^*** (2.950)	10.46^*** (2.883)

OBSERVATIONS	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
WALD χ²	284.70	302.98	321.19	286.69	307.52	296.18
PSEUDO R2	0.969	0.969	0.969	0.969	0.969	0.969
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS &SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S)	Goods & Services
Ln Mji	0.173^* (0.100)
Ln M (sum)		0.194^** (0.098)
Ln Mji(hs)			0.306^** (0.132)
Ln M (sum-hs)				0.201^* (0.114)
Ln Mji(rs)					0.252^** (0.125)
Ln M (sum-rs)						0.237^** (0.119)
Ln DISTij	−0.484^*** (0.098)	−0.471^*** (0.093)	−0.375^*** (0.121)	−0.464^*** (0.106)	−0.427^*** (0.112)	−0.440^*** (0.108)
LANGij	0.769^* (0.450)	0.792^* (0.435)	0.951^** (0.475)	0.829^* (0.448)	0.822^* (0.448)	0.796^* (0.431)
RTAij	0.878^*** (0.187)	0.887^*** (0.185)	0.864^*** (0.185)	0.871^*** (0.188)	0.850^*** (0.183)	0.854^*** (0.183)

CONSTANT	10.55^*** (1.601)	10.11^*** (1.623)	7.472^*** (2.513)	9.291^*** (2.256)	8.585^*** (2.329)	8.701^*** (2.309)
OBSERVATIONS	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224
WALD χ²	417.71	455.62	467.59	392.99	446.90	433.23
PSEUDO R2	0.977	0.978	0.978	0.977	0.978	0.978
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (POPULATION WEIGHTED DISTANCE)

H₀: M_ji(hs) = M_ji(rs)	H₀: M_ji(hs) = M_ji
Observed Difference = 0.072	Observed Difference = 0.165
Empirical P-Value = 0.03	Empirical P-Value = 0.00
Decision: Reject H₀ → M_ji(hs) and M_ji(rs) are statistically different.	Decision: Reject H₀ → M_ji(hs) and M_ji are statistically different.

Summary statistics: By Province (1992–2008)Exports (millions of CAD) and migration (persons)

	N	Mean	SD	Min	Max
Alberta
Trade Value GS	136	4143.508	4623.199	116	20494.5
Trade Value G	120	3004.501	3351.724	93.7	13685.2
Trade Value S	120	1432.808	1487.152	54.85	6809.4
Migrants	136	8588.765	7656.96	1106	31789
Migration Lifetime	136	216508.9	177755.75	25828	640611
Migration Recent	136	177265.15	159466.04	20828	628361
British Columbia
Trade Value GS	136	2392.175	3080.311	81.1	13677.5
Trade Value G	124	1126.089	1612.349	23.9	6947.9
Trade Value S	124	1401.962	1666.722	48.8	6729.6
Migrants	136	6831.375	7990.523	370	27518
Migration Lifetime	136	238574.21	222448.84	16512	818099
Migration Recent	136	165824.21	185159.56	10462	688299
Manitoba
Trade Value GS	136	1277.095	1269.517	30.6	5684.4
Trade Value G	124	687.801	659.115	19.2	2743.3
Trade Value S	124	648.008	667.116	10.3	2941.1
Migrants	136	1680.522	1481.065	163	5199
Migration Lifetime	136	54431.25	46720.722	5922	167400
Migration Recent	136	43500	38638.805	4172	145500
New Brunswick
Trade Value GS	136	734.7	813.781	27.1	3619.3
Trade Value G	128	510.795	637.1	9.7	2905.5
Trade Value S	128	216.782	213.872	13.6	755.3
Migrants	136	1318.64	1098.945	100	4023
Migration Lifetime	136	38247.022	34224.008	3581	124934
Migration Recent	136	32690.772	29151.89	2731	115184
Newfoundland and Labrador
Trade Value GS	136	416.053	643.554	10.7	2927
Trade Value G	124	348.075	596.805	1	2788.4
Trade Value S	124	88.003	96.339	8.6	471.1
Migrants	136	963.676	1103.28	40	3935
Migration Lifetime	136	21371.081	25711.324	1590	109599
Migration Recent	136	20658.581	25951.212	1590	109999
Nova Scotia
Trade Value GS	136	635.648	549.493	39.8	2244.6
Trade Value G	116	405.987	343.432	15.5	1472.9
Trade Value S	116	277.378	240.501	22.4	1073.5
Migrants	136	1876.346	1656.768	204	7023
Migration Lifetime	136	51479.493	44322.614	6127	196700
Migration Recent	136	44891.993	40399.376	4427	182700
Ontario
Trade Value GS	136	10024.164	10191.3	1773.2	41148.801
Trade Value G	128	4943.982	5479.7	795.9	20938.5
Trade Value S	128	5301.979	5106.336	930.7	22637.6
Migrants	136	8093.074	5909.866	1577	24885
Migration Lifetime	136	288663.5	195634.11	112833	908654
Migration Recent	136	213088.5	163586.99	46933	716304
Quebec
Trade Value GS	136	5421.889	8445.865	874	35653.102
Trade Value G	120	3693.012	5536.797	594.2	20662.5
Trade Value S	120	2212.544	3381.279	295.7	15582.7
Migrants	136	2708.831	4361.94	174	16717
Migration Lifetime	136	85747.287	131586.83	10812	529096
Migration Recent	136	63759.787	103196.84	4771	432496
Saskatchewan
Trade Value GS	136	1173.521	1438.696	21	7098.7
Trade Value G	120	895.32	1163.315	9.7	5574.7
Trade Value S	120	314.578	353.968	7	1524
Migrants	136	1983.787	2478.254	99	11221
Migration Lifetime	136	54080.471	57216.398	2059	233526
Migration Recent	136	46255.471	53158.17	1809	225076

Dependent variable: ln(interprovincial exports)

Variable	VIF	Tolerance
lnDist_ij	1.51	0.663
lnM_ji	1.27	0.786
RTA	1.27	0.787
Lang	1.07	0.933
Mean VIF	1.28

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (SERVICES)

H₀: M_ji = M (sum)	H₀: M (sum-hs) = M (sum-rs)	H₀: M (sum-hs) = M (sum)
Observed Difference = 0.007	Observed Difference = −0.041	Observed Difference = 0.011
Empirical P-Value = 0.37	Empirical P-Value = 0.17	Empirical P-Value = 0.02
Decision: Do not Reject H₀→ M_ji and M (sum) are not statistically different.	Decision: Do not Reject H₀→ M (sum-hs) and M (sum-rs) are not statistically different.	Decision: Reject H₀→ M (sum-hs) and M (sum) are statistically different.

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (GOODS & SERVICES)

H₀: M_ji = M (sum)	H₀: M (sum-hs) = M (sum-rs)	H₀: M (sum-hs) = M (sum)
Observed Difference = 0.021	Observed Difference = −0.035	Observed Difference = 0.008
Empirical P-Value = 0.16	Empirical P-Value = 0.15	Empirical P-Value = 0.05
Decision: Do not Reject H₀ → M_ji and M (sum) are not statistically different.	Decision: Do not Reject → M (sum-hs) and M (sum-rs) are not statistically different.	Decision: Reject H₀ → M (sum-hs) and M (sum) are statistically different.

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (S)	Services
Ln Mji	0.339^*** (0.093)
Ln M (sum)		0.332^*** (0.092)
Ln Mji(hs)			0.504^*** (0.107)
Ln M (sum-hs)				0.343^*** (0.110)
Ln Mji(rs)					0.432^*** (0.112)
Ln M (sum-rs)						0.384^*** (0.114)
Ln DISTij	−0.305^*** (0.074)	−0.320^*** (0.072)	−0.165^* (0.085)	−0.304^*** (0.084)	−0.242^*** (0.084)	−0.281^*** (0.086)
LANGij	0.929^** (0.376)	0.932^** (0.369)	1.217^*** (0.385)	0.987^** (0.402)	0.997^*** (0.355)	0.928^*** (0.360)
RTAij	0.734^*** (0.190)	0.748^*** (0.189)	0.716^*** (0.185)	0.721^*** (0.199)	0.687^*** (0.180)	0.697^*** (0.185)
CONSTANT	7.048^*** (1.389)	6.948^*** (1.433)	2.714 (1.968)	5.547^*** (2.069)	4.309^** (1.995)	4.918^** (2.113)

OBSERVATIONS	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
WALD χ²	648.71	713.87	562.83	521.24	597.45	604.20
PSEUDO R2	0.985	0.985	0.985	0.984	0.985	0.985
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS & SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S)	Simple Distance			Great Circle Distance			Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji	0.238^*** (0.067)			0.165^* (0.086)			0.173^* (0.100)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.326^*** (0.087)			0.257^** (0.114)			0.306^** (0.132)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.299^*** (0.083)			0.224^** (0.108)			0.252^** (0.125)
Ln DISTij	−0.557^*** (0.088)	−0.475^*** (0.104)	−0.511^*** (0.098)	−0.564^*** (0.097)	−0.482^*** (0.120)	−0.519^*** (0.111)	−0.484^*** (0.098)	−0.375^** (0.121)	−0.427^*** (0.112)
LANGij	0.641 (0.397)	0.815^* (0.429)	0.690^* (0.401)	1.273^*** (0.448)	1.332^*** (0.461)	1.268^*** (0.445)	0.769^* (0.450)	0.951^** (0.475)	0.822^* (0.448)
RTAij	0.681^*** (0.157)	0.680^*** (0.159)	0.654^*** (0.155)	0.874^*** (0.190)	0.856^*** (0.189)	0.845^*** (0.187)	0.878^*** (0.187)	0.864^*** (0.185)	0.850^*** (0.183)
CONSTANT	10.68^*** (1.224)	8.098^*** (1.837)	8.795^*** (1.719)	11.07^*** (1.436)	8.749^*** (2.248)	9.489^*** (2.078)	10.55^*** (1.601)	7.472^** (2.513)	8.585^*** (2.329)

OBSERVATIONS	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224	1224
WALD χ²	506.49^***	432.30^***	471.05^***	467.46^***	476.18^***	429.96^***	468.45^***	457.36^***	451.30^***
PSEUDO R2	0.980	0.980	0.980	0.980	0.980	0.979	0.979	0.979	0.978
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Estimated Results using OLS with FE (EXPORTS)

Variable
Dependent: ln (Interprovincial Exports)	Goods & Services				Goods				Services
lnMji	0.0605 (0.183)	0.171 (0.140)			−0.0610 (0.245)	0.0623 (0.168)			0.0605 (0.183)	0.171 (0.140)
lnMij	0.124 (0.189)				0.139 (0.264)				0.124 (0.189)
lnMji(hs)			0.325^** (0.139)				0.171 (0.188)				0.325^** (0.139)
lnMji(rs)				0.269 (0.166)				0.144 (0.208)				0.269 (0.166)
lnDISTij	−0.861^*** (0.142)	−0.874^*** (0.134)	−0.714^*** (0.150)	−0.787^*** (0.154)	−1.003^*** (0.188)	−1.016^*** (0.178)	−0.908^*** (0.211)	−0.945^*** (0.210)	−0.861^*** (0.142)	−0.874^*** (0.134)	−0.714^*** (0.150)	−0.787^*** (0.154)
LANGij	2.312^*** (0.465)	2.301^*** (0.479)	2.403^*** (0.478)	2.332^*** (0.469)	2.510^*** (0.731)	2.499^** (0.750)	2.572^*** (0.747)	2.538^** (0.743)	2.312^*** (0.465)	2.301^*** (0.479)	2.403^*** (0.478)	2.332^*** (0.469)
RTAij	1.321^*** (0.234)	1.325^*** (0.235)	1.284^*** (0.236)	1.285^*** (0.240)	1.489^*** (0.335)	1.495^*** (0.338)	1.464^*** (0.346)	1.465^*** (0.343)	1.321^*** (0.234)	1.325^*** (0.235)	1.284^*** (0.236)	1.285^*** (0.240)
CONSTANT	11.10^*** (2.107)	11.30^*** (1.980)	7.827^*** (2.565)	9.062^** (2.839)	12.30^*** (2.689)	12.52^*** (2.517)	10.30^*** (3.548)	10.92^*** (3.708)	11.10^*** (2.107)	11.30^*** (1.980)	7.827^*** (2.565)	9.062^** (2.839)

OBSERVATIONS	1224	1224	1224	1224	1104	1104	1104	1104	1224	1224	1224	1224
R2	0.962	0.962	0.963	0.962	0.946	0.946	0.947	0.947	0.962	0.962	0.963	0.962
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S)	Simple Distance			Great Circle Distance			Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji	0.344^*** (0.065)			0.309^*** (0.083)			0.339^*** (0.093)
Ln Mji(hs)		0.443^*** (0.074)			0.431^*** (0.098)			0.504^*** (0.107)
Ln Mji(rs)			0.414^*** (0.078)			0.382^*** (0.101)			0.432^*** (0.112)
Ln DISTij	−0.399^*** (0.065)	−0.300^*** (0.070)	−0.346^*** (0.071)	−0.382^*** (0.075)	−0.268^*** (0.087)	−0.329^*** (0.085)	−0.305^*** (0.074)	−0.165^* (0.085)	−0.242^** (0.084)
LANGij	0.787^** (0.317)	1.032^*** (0.329)	0.856^*** (0.303)	1.226^*** (0.366)	1.353^*** (0.364)	1.233^*** (0.345)	0.929^** (0.376)	1.217^*** (0.385)	0.997^*** (0.355)
RTAij	0.574^*** (0.165)	0.577^*** (0.167)	0.539^*** (0.160)	0.714^*** (0.191)	0.693^*** (0.188)	0.670^*** (0.183)	0.734^*** (0.190)	0.716^*** (0.185)	0.687^*** (0.180)
CONSTANT	7.821^*** (1.041)	4.566^*** (1.431)	5.414^*** (1.465)	7.815^*** (1.281)	4.346^** (1.843)	5.498^*** (1.841)	7.048^*** (1.389)	2.714 (1.968)	4.309^** (1.995)

OBSERVATIONS	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104	1104
WALD χ²	618.91^***	544.23^***	563.68^***	616.87^***	545.59^***	574.73^***	648.71^***	562.83^***	597.45^***
PSEUDO R2	0.986	0.986	0.986	0.985	0.986	0.986	0.985	0.985	0.985
Exporter_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Importer_Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Recent vs Historical Migrants: A Study on the Canadian Provincial Trade-Migration Nexus

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Data and Variables

Estimated Results using FGLS with FE (GOODS & SERVICES)

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS)

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (GOODS)

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (GOODS & SERVICES)

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (SERVICES)

Fisher’s permutation test (sampling without replacement) of differences in coefficient estimates (POPULATION WEIGHTED DISTANCE)

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS)

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS &SERVICES)

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (POPULATION WEIGHTED DISTANCE)

Summary statistics: By Province (1992–2008)Exports (millions of CAD) and migration (persons)

Dependent variable: ln(interprovincial exports)

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (SERVICES)

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (GOODS & SERVICES)

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (SERVICES)

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS & SERVICES)

Estimated Results using OLS with FE (EXPORTS)

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (SERVICES)

Paradigm

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