Changes in liquidity since the outbreak of COVID-19 (percentage of firms)*
| Liquidity | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Increased (%) | Same (%) | Decreased (%) | |
| Full sample | 10.9 | 29.8 | 59.3 |
| Wholly domestic owned | 10.4 | 28.2 | 61.4 |
| Foreign owned (part or full) | 13.6 | 38.4 | 48.0 |
| Female top manager | 11.0 | 26.7 | 62.3 |
| Male top manager | 10.9 | 30.5 | 58.6 |
| A. By country and firm size | |||
| El Salvador | 12.9 | 26.4 | 60.6 |
| Small | 9.8 | 20.7 | 69.5 |
| Medium | 11.9 | 27.7 | 60.4 |
| Large | 20.5 | 36.1 | 43.4 |
| Guatemala | 11.1 | 31.4 | 57.5 |
| Small | 3.3 | 28.3 | 68.3 |
| Medium | 16.3 | 34.7 | 49.0 |
| Large | 15.9 | 31.8 | 52.3 |
| Honduras | 8.7 | 25.2 | 66.1 |
| Small | 3.6 | 19.6 | 76.8 |
| Medium | 15.2 | 26.1 | 58.7 |
| Large | 7.7 | 46.2 | 46.2 |
| Nicaragua | 8.3 | 37.8 | 53.9 |
| Small | 5.1 | 30.5 | 64.4 |
| Medium | 11.2 | 33.7 | 55.1 |
| Large | 6.3 | 62.5 | 31.3 |
| B. By sector | |||
| Food | 11.8 | 30.4 | 57.8 |
| Tobacco | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Textiles | 19.2 | 34.6 | 46.2 |
| Garments | 4.0 | 20.0 | 76.0 |
| Leather | 0.0 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
| Wood | 0.0 | 12.5 | 87.5 |
| Paper | 20.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 |
| Publishing, printing | 0.0 | 10.0 | 90.0 |
| Chemicals | 28.0 | 40.0 | 32.0 |
| Plastics and rubber | 0.0 | 58.3 | 41.7 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | 12.5 | 18.8 | 68.8 |
| Fabricated metal products | 17.6 | 11.8 | 70.6 |
| Machinery and equipment | 0.0 | 22.2 | 77.8 |
| Electronics | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Transport machinery | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Furniture | 8.1 | 27.0 | 64.9 |
| Construction | 14.7 | 23.5 | 61.8 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 12.2 | 31.7 | 56.1 |
| Wholesale | 12.8 | 35.8 | 51.4 |
| Retail | 11.3 | 33.1 | 55.6 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 10.8 | 18.9 | 70.3 |
| Transport services | 14.6 | 34.1 | 51.2 |
| IT services | 0.0 | 57.1 | 42.9 |
What would be the most-needed government measures to support this business over the COVID-19 crisis?
| Round 2 survey | |
|---|---|
| % of respondents | |
| El Salvador | |
| Cash transfer | 11.9 |
| Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 11.6 |
| Access to new credit | 32.2 |
| Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 24.3 |
| Wage subsidies | 10.6 |
| Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 4.7 |
| Other measures | 4.7 |
| Guatemala | |
| Cash transfer | 5.9 |
| Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 10.2 |
| Access to new credit | 18.2 |
| Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 44.9 |
| Wage subsidies | 7.0 |
| Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 4.3 |
| Other measures | 9.6 |
| Honduras | |
| Cash transfer | 8.3 |
| Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 14.0 |
| Access to new credit | 10.2 |
| Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 55.4 |
| Wage subsidies | 4.5 |
| Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 3.8 |
| Other measures | 3.8 |
| Nicaragua | |
| Cash transfer | 5.3 |
| Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 15.0 |
| Access to new credit | 15.0 |
| Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 56.1 |
| Wage subsidies | 3.2 |
| Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 0.5 |
| Other measures | 4.8 |
Change in employment by sector and gender: full-time permanent employees compared to December 2019
| COVID follow-up: Round 1 | COVID follow-up: Round 2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All (%) | Female (%) | All (%) | Female (%) | |
| Food | –12.1 | –11.0 | –9.8 | –22.8 |
| Tobacco | –5.0 | –10.2 | 7.6 | –4.8 |
| Textiles | –12.8 | –15.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Garments | –20.4 | –25.2 | –10.3 | –26.2 |
| Leather | –15.7 | –16.7 | –4.0 | –15.1 |
| Wood | –14.0 | –12.0 | –10.8 | –30.0 |
| Paper | –1.9 | –51.1 | –2.8 | –22.4 |
| Publishing, printing | –16.3 | –24.4 | –24.8 | –16.6 |
| Chemicals | 3.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 4.7 |
| Plastics and rubber | 2.8 | 2.4 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | –8.6 | –28.6 | –46.4 | –93.5 |
| Fabricated metal products | –39.3 | –60.3 | –20.0 | –95.7 |
| Machinery and equipment | –12.3 | 0.0 | –21.0 | –16.7 |
| Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.7 | 19.1 |
| Transport machinery | –18.0 | 0.0 | –15.4 | –8.0 |
| Furniture | –20.6 | –24.0 | –18.5 | –14.3 |
| Construction | –18.6 | –17.0 | –24.8 | 10.7 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | –15.9 | –24.0 | –23.4 | –5.7 |
| Wholesale | –0.5 | –14.5 | –22.0 | –13.0 |
| Retail | –15.6 | –17.0 | –21.8 | –52.2 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | –41.0 | –94.2 | –26.0 | –30.2 |
| Transport services | –9.4 | –16.8 | –7.7 | –25.0 |
| IT services | –15.4 | –17.8 | –26.2 | –20.5 |
| All sectors | –11.7 | –14.3 | –11.5 | –12.8 |
Proportion of responding firms who cut wages or hours for at least some workers
| Wages (%) | Hours (%) | |
|---|---|---|
| A. By country and firm size | ||
| El Salvador | 25.4 | 32.5 |
| Small | 28.3 | 30.0 |
| Medium | 19.5 | 32.0 |
| Large | 26.7 | 38.1 |
| Guatemala | 34.0 | 24.0 |
| Small | 53.3 | 26.7 |
| Medium | 25.0 | 15.0 |
| Large | 26.7 | 33.3 |
| Honduras | 31.6 | 40.4 |
| Small | 30.9 | 41.8 |
| Medium | 26.1 | 34.8 |
| Large | 53.8 | 53.8 |
| Nicaragua | 22.9 | 29.6 |
| Small | 22.4 | 31.0 |
| Medium | 22.2 | 32.2 |
| Large | 25.8 | 19.4 |
| Full sample | 26.3 | 32.4 |
| B. By sector | ||
| Food | 21.0 | 32.0 |
| Tobacco | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Textiles | 23.5 | 11.8 |
| Garments | 31.3 | 29.7 |
| Leather | 10.0 | 40.0 |
| Wood | 33.3 | 16.7 |
| Paper | 33.3 | 16.7 |
| Publishing, printing | 27.3 | 36.4 |
| Chemicals | 27.3 | 22.7 |
| Plastics and rubber | 10.0 | 20.0 |
| Non-metallic mineral products | 40.0 | 33.3 |
| Fabricated metal products | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| Machinery and equipment | 21.1 | 26.3 |
| Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Transport machinery | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Furniture | 31.4 | 45.1 |
| Construction | 35.3 | 32.4 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 25.5 | 27.7 |
| Wholesale | 26.4 | 35.8 |
| Retail | 26.0 | 38.3 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 26.8 | 29.3 |
| Transport services | 28.2 | 33.3 |
| IT services | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Full sample | 26.3 | 32.4 |
Reasons for not receiving government support (percentage of firms)
| El Salvador (%) | Guatemala (%) | Honduras (%) | Nicaragua (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not aware | 17.6 | 12.3 | 30.8 | 24.3 |
| Too cumbersome or costly to apply | 10.0 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 |
| Not eligible | 29.5 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 |
| Do not expect to get it because of lack of right connections | 2.4 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 10.7 |
| Applied but not received it | 7.6 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| No need of support | 24.8 | 38.5 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| Other reason | 4.8 | 13.1 | 26.0 | 39.6 |
| Nonresponse | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Expected survival times of firms
| Average number of weeks that firms could survive with | ||
|---|---|---|
| No sales* | No sales + finance** | |
| A. By country and firm size | ||
| El Salvador | 7.69 | 12.29 |
| Small | 5.85 | 12.48 |
| Medium | 10.05 | 12.64 |
| Large | 8.51 | 11.46 |
| Guatemala | 9.42 | 11.85 |
| Small | 9.63 | 11.05 |
| Medium | 9.63 | 13.67 |
| Large | 8.89 | 10.87 |
| Honduras | 8.20 | 10.28 |
| Small | 9.20 | 10.45 |
| Medium | 7.24 | 10.27 |
| Large | 7.18 | 9.50 |
| Nicaragua | 8.53 | 12.69 |
| Small | 6.91 | 7.92 |
| Medium | 8.06 | 14.95 |
| Large | 12.59 | 14.41 |
| Full sample | 8.30 | 12.00 |
| B. By sector | ||
| Food | 6.41 | 14.38 |
| Tobacco | 23.60 | 15.60 |
| Textiles | 7.13 | 11.44 |
| Garments | 7.85 | 12.08 |
| Leather | 4.25 | 6.71 |
| Wood | 5.43 | 7.33 |
| Paper | 8.80 | 11.20 |
| Publishing, printing | 6.23 | 9.04 |
| Chemicals | 6.25 | 9.00 |
| Plastics and rubber | 12.73 | 13.64 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | 7.06 | 10.33 |
| Fabricated metal products | 7.88 | 18.82 |
| Machinery and equipment | 5.11 | 7.22 |
| Electronics | 11.50 | 15.00 |
| Transport machinery | 4.40 | 10.80 |
| Furniture | 5.23 | 10.00 |
| Construction | 13.12 | 25.79 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 6.65 | 11.87 |
| Wholesale | 9.40 | 12.95 |
| Retail | 7.38 | 9.27 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 7.39 | 11.68 |
| Transport services | 7.35 | 10.00 |
| IT services | 5.86 | 8.86 |
| Full sample | 7.65 | 12.00 |
SURE estimation for changes in sales and the share of females in employment
| Observations | RMSE | R2 | χ2 | P-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change in sales since 2019 | 302 | 29.747 | 0.210 | 80.650 | 0.000 |
| % change in female share in employment | 302 | 0.872 | 0.087 | 28.190 | 0.003 |
| (since December 2019, FT permanent employees) |
Main reason for not applying for a loan and the outcomes of loan applications (% of firms by country)
| El Salvador (%) | Guatemala (%) | Honduras (%) | Nicaragua (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Reasons for not applying | ||||
| No need for a loan - establishment had sufficient capital | 56.7 | 71.3 | 56.3 | 49.7 |
| Application procedures were complex | 8.6 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 5.5 |
| Interest rates were not favorable | 5.7 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| Collateral requirements were too high | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 7.6 |
| Size of loan and maturity were insufficient | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Did not think it would be approved | 7.1 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| Other measures | 19.0 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 16.6 |
| Nonresponse | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| B. Outcome of loan application | ||||
| Application still in process | 44.7 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 5.9 |
| Application was approved in full | 40.2 | 70.7 | 68.2 | 55.9 |
| Application was approved in part | 9.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 23.5 |
| Application was rejected | 4.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 11.8 |
| Application was withdrawn | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
Changes in firm sales
| Average percentage change in firm sales compared to same month in 2019* | ||
|---|---|---|
| Unweighted (%) | Sales weighted (%) | |
| A. By country and firm size | ||
| El Salvador | –23.3 | –9.8 |
| Small | –31.4 | –12.6 |
| Medium | –18.4 | –10.0 |
| Large | –12.9 | –9.6 |
| Guatemala | –24.0 | –10.3 |
| Small | –34.8 | –30.5 |
| Medium | –22.6 | 19.4 |
| Large | –10.3 | –17.7 |
| Honduras | –33.7 | –26.3 |
| Small | –39.7 | –23.6 |
| Medium | –29.6 | –23.1 |
| Large | –23.3 | –31.2 |
| Nicaragua | –22.9 | 3.4 |
| Small | –37.8 | –23.6 |
| Medium | –15.5 | –4.6 |
| Large | –16.0 | 5.1 |
| Full sample | –24.8 | –4.4 |
| B. By sector | ||
| Food | –19.5 | –5.3 |
| Tobacco | 4.5 | 8.0 |
| Textiles | –14.8 | –11.5 |
| Garments | –45.9 | –27.2 |
| Leather | –31.0 | –1.5 |
| Wood | –42.0 | –29.9 |
| Paper | –16.4 | 5.3 |
| Publishing, printing | –33.2 | –33.2 |
| Chemicals | –7.5 | 8.6 |
| Plastics and rubber | –4.8 | 0.7 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | –28.2 | –9.0 |
| Fabricated metal products | –12.1 | –13.8 |
| Machinery and equipment | –36.3 | 8.3 |
| Electronics | 10.0 | 18.0 |
| Transport machinery | –18.8 | –25.0 |
| Furniture | –26.5 | –15.3 |
| Construction | –39.2 | –56.8 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | –24.6 | –28.5 |
| Wholesale | –15.5 | –6.8 |
| Retail | –22.9 | –1.1 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | – 49.5 | – 45.1 |
| Transport services | –14.8 | –3.5 |
| IT services | –32.5 | –32.1 |
| Full sample | –24.1 | –4.4 |
Change in employment by country, firm size, and gender: full-time permanent employees compared to December 2019
| COVID follow-up: Round 1 | COVID follow-up: Round 2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All (%) | Female (%) | All (%) | Female (%) | |
| El Salvador | –8.9 | –9.1 | –11.6 | –7.0 |
| Small | –11.9 | –15.5 | –48.4 | –46.3 |
| Medium | –3.3 | –12.6 | –10.9 | –14.7 |
| Large | –9.8 | –7.8 | –7.6 | –3.1 |
| Guatemala | –15.7 | –25.6 | –9.0 | –16.7 |
| Small | –22.7 | –36.9 | 6.6 | 11.1 |
| Medium | –30.9 | –55.4 | –31.0 | –64.0 |
| Large | –10.7 | –16.0 | –4.2 | –8.6 |
| Honduras | –21.9 | –30.2 | –15.2 | –17.2 |
| Small | –28.7 | –25.8 | –17.0 | –7.5 |
| Medium | –24.1 | –34.4 | –18.5 | –19.4 |
| Large | –18.5 | –28.3 | –12.1 | –16.6 |
| Nicaragua | –8.8 | –9.2 | –11.9 | –23.0 |
| Small | –10.6 | –39.9 | –9.3 | 6.8 |
| Medium | –15.9 | –16.2 | –17.0 | –41.9 |
| Large | –6.2 | –6.2 | –10.8 | –21.1 |
| Full sample | –11.7 | –14.3 | –11.5 | –12.8 |
IPWRA analysis for online sales and remote working
| IPWRA Analysis - decreased liquidity and increased debt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Absolute effects | |||
| Liquidity decreased | Debt increased | Both | ||
| Expected survival with no sales (weeks) | ATT | –5.850** | –3.583 | –6.556** |
| standard error | (2.179) | (2.699) | (2.991) | |
World governance indicators (2019)
| Control of corruption | Government effectiveness | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| (a) Estimate | (a) Estimate | ||
| El Salvador | –0.553 | El Salvador | – 0.465 |
| Guatemala | –0.898 | Guatemala | –0.677 |
| Honduras | –0.808 | Honduras | –0.612 |
| Nicaragua | –1.122 | Nicaragua | – 0.771 |
| (b) Percentile rank | (b) Percentile rank | ||
| El Salvador | 32.692 | El Salvador | 35.577 |
| Guatemala | 18.750 | Guatemala | 26.442 |
| Honduras | 23.077 | Honduras | 30.288 |
| Nicaragua | 12.500 | Nicaragua | 21.635 |
| Political stability and absence of violence | Regulatory quality | ||
| (a) Estimate | (a) Estimate | ||
| El Salvador | –0.127 | El Salvador | 0.022 |
| Guatemala | –0.546 | Guatemala | –0.225 |
| Honduras | –0.531 | Honduras | –0.493 |
| Nicaragua | –1.035 | Nicaragua | – 0.689 |
| (b) Percentile rank | (b) Percentile rank | ||
| El Salvador | 42.857 | El Salvador | 56.250 |
| Guatemala | 25.238 | Guatemala | 44.231 |
| Honduras | 27.143 | Honduras | 34.135 |
| Nicaragua | 13.333 | Nicaragua | 25.000 |
| Rule of law | Voice and accountability | ||
| (a) Estimate | (a) Estimate | ||
| El Salvador | –0.762 | El Salvador | 0.138 |
| Guatemala | ––1.052 | Guatemala | –0.313 |
| Honduras | –1.009 | Honduras | –0.552 |
| Nicaragua | –1.176 | Nicaragua | –1.077 |
| (b) Percentile rank | (b) Percentile rank | ||
| El Salvador | 23.558 | El Salvador | 51.724 |
| Guatemala | 13.942 | Guatemala | 35.468 |
| Honduras | 15.385 | Honduras | 31.034 |
| Nicaragua | 9.615 | Nicaragua | 19.212 |
Change in full-time permanent workers from December 2019 by skill category and education*
| A. By skill category | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country/firm size | Nonproduction | Production workers | ||
| Workers (%) | Skilled (%) | Semiskilled (%) | Unskilled (%) | |
| El Salvador | –2.8 | –4.4 | 6.3 | 0.6 |
| Small | –24.3 | –22.7 | –20.8 | –30.7 |
| Medium | –14.1 | –11.9 | –13.2 | –18.2 |
| Large | –1.3 | –2.1 | 8.6 | 2.7 |
| Guatemala | –8.5 | 3.8 | –14.2 | 6.6 |
| Small | –21.9 | –28.5 | –25.1 | –19.7 |
| Medium | –36.4 | –38.1 | –38.7 | –34.4 |
| Large | –2.4 | 9.9 | –7.4 | 15.1 |
| Honduras | –18.8 | –18.7 | –15.6 | –15.5 |
| Small | –8.1 | –7.5 | –5.1 | –12.0 |
| Medium | –22.3 | –21.8 | –31.7 | –21.1 |
| Large | –17.6 | –18.0 | –10.3 | –11.6 |
| Nicaragua | –19.4 | –14.4 | –26.3 | –23.2 |
| Small | 8.3 | –5.4 | 35.1 | –8.6 |
| Medium | –2.5 | –0.6 | 2.5 | –4.5 |
| Large | –22.1 | –18.5 | –30.5 | –25.8 |
| Full sample | –6.9 | –4.8 | –5.0 | –3.0 |
Workers furloughed as a % of full-time permanent employees*
| Round 1 COVID-19 survey | Round 2 COVID-19 survey | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All (%) | Female (%) | All (%) | Female (%) | |
| A. By country and firm size | ||||
| El Salvador | 20.2 | 18.2 | 10.3 | 11.7 |
| Small | 26.9 | 23.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 |
| Medium | 11.3 | 9.1 | 16.1 | 15.8 |
| Large | 14.7 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 13.7 |
| Guatemala | 29.9 | 21.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Small | 27.2 | 25.9 | 6.9 | 8.9 |
| Medium | 22.4 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Large | 42.4 | 18.1 | 7.0 | 4.3 |
| Honduras | 24.4 | 19.9 | ||
| Small | 25.9 | 20.4 | ||
| Medium | 24.0 | 21.8 | ||
| Large | 19.9 | 13.0 | ||
| Nicaragua | 10.9 | 10.3 | ||
| Small | 14.9 | 16.0 | ||
| Medium | 9.3 | 8.1 | ||
| Large | 4.9 | 3.2 | ||
| B. By sector* | ||||
| Food | 12.2 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Tobacco | 9.5 | 9.5 | 47.6 | 56.5 |
| Textiles | 50.5 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Garments | 36.8 | 41.6 | 0.9 | 14.9 |
| Leather | 19.0 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Wood | 16.8 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| Paper | 20.0 | 25.0 | 21.5 | 33.9 |
| Publishing, printing | 22.2 | 17.7 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
| Chemicals | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Plastics and rubber | 13.6 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 |
| Non-metallic mineral products | 33.1 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Fabricated metal products | 29.6 | 14.7 | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| Machinery and equipment | 15.5 | 15.4 | 42.9 | 51.2 |
| Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Transport machinery | 27.3 | 20.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Furniture | 35.9 | 24.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 |
| Construction | 24.0 | 20.3 | 21.3 | 20.7 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 16.1 | 16.7 | 16.1 | 11.4 |
| Wholesale | 11.9 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Retail | 16.4 | 14.3 | 5.8 | 7.0 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 37.6 | 37.4 | 30.2 | 52.3 |
| Transport services | 13.4 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 8.0 |
| IT services | 18.3 | 22.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Full sample | 20.9 | 17.3 | 8.4 | 8.8 |
Perceived main obstacles to doing business (average scores)
| El Salvador | Guatemala | Honduras | Nicaragua | All countries | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity supply | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Telecommunications | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Transport | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Customs | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Access to land | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Crime, theft, and disorder | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Access to finance | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Tax rates | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Tax administration | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Business licensing | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Political instability | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Corruption | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Courts | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Labor regulations | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Taken from the original enterprise survey | |||||
| No obstacle = 0 | |||||
| Minor obstacle = 1 | |||||
| Moderate obstacle = 2 | |||||
| Major obstacle = 3 | |||||
| Very severe obstacle = 4 | |||||
Proportion of firms applying for a loan
| Since the outbreak of COVID-19 | % |
|---|---|
| Full sample | 31.9 |
| Wholly domestic owned | 33.3 |
| Foreign owned (part or full) | 24.0 |
| Female top manager | 32.2 |
| Male top manager | 31.8 |
| A. By country and firm size | |
| El Salvador | 39.0 |
| Small | 39.3 |
| Medium | 38.4 |
| Large | 39.0 |
| Guatemala | 26.3 |
| Small | 15.9 |
| Medium | 30.6 |
| Large | 36.4 |
| Honduras | 38.3 |
| Small | 28.6 |
| Medium | 52.2 |
| Large | 30.8 |
| Nicaragua | 19.0 |
| Small | 10.2 |
| Medium | 21.6 |
| Large | 28.1 |
| B. By sector | |
| Food | 28.2 |
| Tobacco | 0.0 |
| Textiles | 23.1 |
| Garments | 34.7 |
| Leather | 12.5 |
| Wood | 12.5 |
| Paper | 60.0 |
| Publishing, printing | 32.3 |
| Chemicals | 48.0 |
| Plastics and rubber | 33.3 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | 6.3 |
| Fabricated metal products | 44.4 |
| Machinery and equipment | 44.4 |
| Electronics | 0.0 |
| Transport machinery | 60.0 |
| Furniture | 31.4 |
| Construction | 26.5 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 35.0 |
| Wholesale | 37.6 |
| Retail | 32.1 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 32.4 |
| Transport services | 24.4 |
| IT services | 28.6 |
OLS regression results
| Dependent variable | Expected weeks of survival | % change in sales since 2019 | % change in FT permanent | % change in the share of females | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| with no sales | employees since Dec 2019 | in FT permanent employment | ||||||||||
| Independent variables | Coefficient | Robust | t | Coefficient | Robust | t | Coefficient | Robust | t | Coefficient | Robust | t |
| standard error | standard error. | standard error | standard error. | |||||||||
| % change in sales since 2019 | 0.019* | 0.010 | 1.81 | 0.003*** | 0.001 | 4.99 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 1.37 | |||
| Expected weeks of survival with no sales | 0.200** | 0.093 | 2.15 | 0.002* | 0.001 | 1.6 | ||||||
| % change in FT permanent employment since Dec. 2019 | 1.342 | 0.954 | 1.41 | 14.120*** | 3.181 | 4.44 | –0.197** | 0.103 | –1.91 | |||
| % change in debt in Jan–Sept 2020 | –2.966*** | 1.101 | –2.69 | 0.039 | 0.045 | 0.86 | ||||||
| % of foreign ownership | 0.085** | 0.040 | 2.12 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.71 | ||||||
| Started or increased delivery (0,1) | –1.868* | 1.061 | –1.76 | 7.795 | 2.726 | 2.86 | –0.102 | 0.145 | –0.70 | |||
| Started or increased online sales (0,1) | 0.183 | 0.182 | 1.00 | |||||||||
| Female top manager (0,1) | –1.604* | 0.942 | –1.70 | 0.073 | 0.088 | 0.83 | ||||||
| Online sales as a % of total sales | 0.040 | 0.033 | 1.23 | –0.180*** | 0.063 | –2.83 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 1.03 | |||
| No government support (0,1) | 2.101* | 0.767 | 2.74 | |||||||||
| Firm applied for loan (0,1) | 0.051 | 0.041 | 1.23 | |||||||||
| Exports as a % of total sales | 0.001 | 0.000 | 1.56 | –0.003 | 0.005 | –0.69 | ||||||
| Number of weeks closed | –1.468*** | 0.208 | –7.04 | |||||||||
| Proportion of employees furloughed | –2.242* | 1.183 | –1.89 | –15.707*** | 4.289 | –3.66 | 0.452** | 0.230 | 1.97 | |||
| Labor intensity–labor as a share of total cost | 2.991** | 1.443 | 2.07 | –0.046 | 0.164 | –0.28 | ||||||
| Containment and health index | –0.041 | 0.041 | –1.00 | |||||||||
| Government work-place closures-stringency | –9.862** | 4.672 | –2.11 | 15.527** | 7.444 | 2.09 | 0.185** | 0.094 | 1.96 | –0.289* | 0.171 | –1.69 |
| Stay-at-home restrictions-stringency | –15.781*** | 4.608 | –3.42 | 0.588 | 0.444 | 1.32 | ||||||
| Closures of public transport-stringency | –46.252*** | 10.951 | –4.22 | 0.392 | 0.362 | 1.08 | ||||||
| Total COVID-19 cases per million | 0.004* | 0.002 | 1.84 | –0.00004** | 0.000 | –2.12 | ||||||
| Total COVID-19 deaths per million | –0.067 | 0.046 | –1.46 | 0.148*** | 0.045 | 3.27 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 1.06 | |||
| Transport machinery sector (0,1) | –5.551*** | 0.826 | –6.72 | |||||||||
| Transport sector (0,1) | 1.938 | 1.266 | 1.53 | 19.436*** | 5.542 | 3.51 | ||||||
| IT services sector (0,1) | –6.490 | 2.237 | –2.90 | |||||||||
| Garment sector (0,1) | –0.149** | 0.058 | –2.58 | |||||||||
| Chemical sector (0,1) | 15.396** | 7.252 | 2.12 | |||||||||
| Rubber and plastics sector (0,1) | 22.680*** | 7.508 | 3.02 | |||||||||
| Nonmetalllc mineral products sector (0,1) | 1.115* | 0.662 | 1.68 | |||||||||
| Constant | 2.434 | 1.821 | 1.34 | –32.045*** | 3.469 | –9.24 | –0.029 | 0.043 | –0.67 | 0.163 | 0.430 | 0.38 |
| Number of observations | 386 | 618 | 626 | 285 | ||||||||
| F | 2.81 | (15, 370) | 10.03 | (16, 601) | 11.64 | (8, 617) | 1.76 | (17, 267) | ||||
| Probability > F | 0.0004 | 0 | 0 | 0.0338 | ||||||||
| R2 | 0.1022 | 0.2107 | 0.1312 | 0.1006 | ||||||||
| Adjusted R2 | 0.0658 | 0.1897 | 0.1199 | 0.0433 | ||||||||
| RMSE | 9.468 | 31.104 | 0.42401 | 0.91075 | ||||||||
Average change in debt between January and September 2020
| Full sample (%) | 6.3 |
| Wholly domestic owned (%) | 10.4 |
| Foreign owned (part or full) (%) | 0.0 |
| Female top manager (%) | 9.8 |
| Male top manager (%) | 6.2 |
| A. By country and firm size (%) | |
| El Salvador | 3.2 |
| Small | –11.6 |
| Medium | 0.4 |
| Large | 5.6% |
| Guatemala | –2.5 |
| Small | –17.3 |
| Medium | –4.4 |
| Large | –1.0 |
| Honduras | –0.5 |
| Small | –7.7 |
| Medium | 8.0 |
| Large | –9.6 |
| Nicaragua | 21.1 |
| Small | –8.2 |
| Medium | –13.7 |
| Large | 25.7 |
| B. By sector (%) | |
| Food | –3.5 |
| Tobacco | –18.2 |
| Textiles | –0.3 |
| Garments | 47.0 |
| Leather | –1.9 |
| Wood | –0.6 |
| Paper | –0.7 |
| Publishing, printing | –19.5 |
| Chemicals | 25.4 |
| Plastics and rubber | –0.4 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | –6.6 |
| Fabricated metal products | 4.0 |
| Machinery and equipment | 6.1 |
| Electronics | 0.0 |
| Transport machinery | 12.4 |
| Furniture | 6.7 |
| Construction | –17.3 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | –4.7 |
| Wholesale | 21.2 |
| Retail | –7.4 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 8.9 |
| Transport services | –10.0 |
| IT services | –35.5 |
Total weeks of temporary firm closures*
| Round 1 COVID-19 survey | Round 2 COVID-19 survey | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | Labor weeks | Average | Labor weeks | |
| Weeks closed | Lost** | Weeks closed | Lost** | |
| A. By country and firm size | ||||
| El Salvador | 6.32 | 213598 | 2.89 | 102291 |
| Small | 7.23 | 20048 | 2.63 | 36601 |
| Medium | 5.22 | 24614 | 2.74 | 49116 |
| Large | 5.33 | 168936 | 3.57 | 16574 |
| Guatemala | 4.18 | 47756 | 2.92 | 55205 |
| Small | 5.03 | 4639 | 2.73 | 32310 |
| Medium | 3.78 | 13751 | 3.13 | 17205 |
| Large | 3.41 | 29366 | 3.04 | 5690 |
| Honduras | 7.81 | 46655 | ||
| Small | 9.31 | 7582 | ||
| Medium | 6.91 | 17548 | ||
| Large | 4.63 | 21525 | ||
| Nicaragua | 1.68 | 14350 | ||
| Small | 2.74 | 1723 | ||
| Medium | 1.05 | 2491 | ||
| Large | 0.83 | 10136 | ||
| B. By sector* | ||||
| Food | 1.99 | 8091 | 3.64 | 26547 |
| Tobacco | 2.83 | 20696 | 3.69 | 25415 |
| Textiles | 8.33 | 34020 | 2.70 | 29913 |
| Garments | 8.13 | 102594 | 5.71 | 136 |
| Leather | 6.00 | 1315 | 3.80 | 671 |
| Wood | 4.13 | 290 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Paper | 3.80 | 665 | 2.50 | 3990 |
| Publishing, printing | 5.61 | 3603 | 1.47 | 2073 |
| Chemicals | 2.10 | 2895 | 3.60 | 652 |
| Plastics and rubber | 3.44 | 4770 | 2.65 | 2303 |
| Non-metallic mineral products | 5.44 | 6872 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Fabricated metal products | 7.47 | 6606 | 2.17 | 5705 |
| Machinery and equipment | 6.00 | 4893 | 1.14 | 1544 |
| Electronics | 6.00 | 18570 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Transport machinery | 7.20 | 1200 | 3.20 | 32 |
| Furniture | 9.60 | 11977 | 2.25 | 20465 |
| Construction | 6.66 | 8858 | 4.80 | 3449 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 4.34 | 10179 | 2.22 | 4879 |
| Wholesale | 3.55 | 20696 | 2.60 | 4750 |
| Retail | 5.41 | 40703 | 2.69 | 12239 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 6.22 | 7942 | 3.06 | 1621 |
| Transport services | 2.85 | 3576 | 2.62 | 1672 |
| IT services | 7.60 | 1348 | 9.33 | 10940 |
| Full sample | 5.08 | 322359 | 2.89 | 158996 |
SURE estimation for changes in sales and employment
| Observations | RMSE | R2 | χ2 | P-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change in sales since 2019 | 615 | 31.2941 | 0.1782 | 133.61 | 0.000 |
| % change in FT permanent employment | 615 | 0.4233 | 0.1305 | 96.64 | 0.000 |
| (since December 2019) |
Recipients of government support (at time of the second COVID survey)
| Support | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Received (%) | Expected (%) | Neither (%) | |
| Full sample | 19.2 | 4.0 | 76.8 |
| Wholly domestic owned | 20.4 | 4.5 | 75.1 |
| Foreign owned (part or full) | 12.7 | 1.6 | 85.7 |
| Female top manager | 20.0 | 3.4 | 76.6 |
| Male top manager | 19.0 | 4.1 | 76.9 |
| A. By country and firm size | |||
| El Salvador | 32.7 | 7.2 | 60.2 |
| Small | 32.5 | 9.8 | 57.7 |
| Medium | 51.0 | 6.9 | 42.2 |
| Large | 10.7 | 2.4 | 86.9 |
| Guatemala | 12.4 | 2.6 | 85.0 |
| Small | 13.3 | 0.0 | 86.7 |
| Medium | 12.2 | 2.0 | 85.7 |
| Large | 11.4 | 6.8 | 81.8 |
| Honduras | 9.5 | 0.9 | 89.7 |
| Small | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Medium | 17.0 | 2.1 | 80.9 |
| Large | 23.1 | 0.0 | 76.9 |
| Nicaragua | 5.0 | 1.1 | 93.9 |
| Small | 6.8 | 0.0 | 93.2 |
| Medium | 2.2 | 2.2 | 95.5 |
| Large | 9.4 | 0.0 | 90.6 |
| B. By sector | |||
| Food | 21.6 | 6.9 | 71.6 |
| Tobacco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Textiles | 23.1 | 3.8 | 73.1 |
| Garments | 24.0 | 8.0 | 68.0 |
| Leather | 12.5 | 25.0 | 62.5 |
| Wood | 0.0 | 12.5 | 87.5 |
| Paper | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Publishing, printing | 32.3 | 3.2 | 64.5 |
| Chemicals | 20.0 | 4.0 | 76.0 |
| Plastics and rubber | 16.7 | 0.0 | 83.3 |
| Nonmetallic mineral products | 12.5 | 12.5 | 75.0 |
| Fabricated metal products | 11.8 | 0.0 | 88.2 |
| Machinery and equipment | 33.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
| Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Transport machinery | 20.0 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
| Furniture | 24.3 | 5.4 | 70.3 |
| Construction | 14.7 | 2.9 | 82.4 |
| Servicing of motor vehicles | 9.8 | 4.9 | 85.4 |
| Wholesale | 14.5 | 1.8 | 83.6 |
| Retail | 20.5 | 1.9 | 77.6 |
| Hotels, restaurants etc. | 25.0 | 2.8 | 72.2 |
| Transport services | 17.1 | 2.4 | 80.5 |
| IT services | 14.3 | 0.0 | 85.7 |
IPWRA analysis for liquidity and debt
| IPWRA analysis - started or increased (a) online sales and (b) remote working | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Absolute effects | |||
| Online sales | Remote working | Both | ||
| Expected survival with no sales (weeks) | ATT | 0.577 | 2.721** | 1.431 |
| standard error | (2.028) | (1.283) | (1.003) | |