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Queuing to leave: A new approach to immigration

IZA Journal of Development and Migration
Volume 12 (2021): Issue 1 (January 2021)
By:
Open Access
|Jul 2021

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

Migration Queuing System (Cases I and II).
Migration Queuing System (Cases I and II).

Figure 2

Expected utility from legal immigration at different acceptance rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, α = 0.05, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.
Expected utility from legal immigration at different acceptance rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, α = 0.05, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.

Figure 3

Expected utility from legal immigration at different discount rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, ν = 0.3, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.
Expected utility from legal immigration at different discount rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, ν = 0.3, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.

Figure 4

Vertical axis shows steady state relative shares of legal and illegal migration flows and horizontal axis shows time for different patience parameters and critical waiting times.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μl= 1.4, μi= 1.9 and a) Wlc*= 18, P= 4 (top panel) b) Wlc*= 40, P= 1 (bottom panel).
Vertical axis shows steady state relative shares of legal and illegal migration flows and horizontal axis shows time for different patience parameters and critical waiting times.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μl= 1.4, μi= 1.9 and a) Wlc*= 18, P= 4 (top panel) b) Wlc*= 40, P= 1 (bottom panel).

Figure 5

Steady state legal queue content and horizontal axis shows time.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μj= 1.4, μi= 1.9, Wlc*= 18, P= 4.
Steady state legal queue content and horizontal axis shows time.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μj= 1.4, μi= 1.9, Wlc*= 18, P= 4.

Figure 6

Countries with the highest illegal border crossings over the 5-year period 2010–2014 according to Frontex data.
Countries with the highest illegal border crossings over the 5-year period 2010–2014 according to Frontex data.

Figure 7

Migration Queue (Case III).Source: Author's representation.
Migration Queue (Case III).Source: Author's representation.

Within and 2SLS estimators dependent variable: Log of resettled persons

WithinWithinWithinWithin2SLS2SLS
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Log CDt−10.072 (0.048)
Log CDt−2 0.072 (0.045)
Log CDt−3 0.130*** (0.048)0.077* (0.046)0.143** (0.066)0.068 (0.066)
Log population density −1.059 (2.129) −1.085 (2.131)
Institutions −0.400 (0.328) −0.407 (0.332)
Constant0.617*** (0.102)0.674*** (0.087)0.464*** (0.096)5.755 (10.530)0.445*** (0.118)5.896 (10.538)
Year fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYes
Country fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYes
Adjusted R20.0130.0120.0360.017
Number of observations1,5761,3791,1829521,182952
Number of groups197197197192197192

GMM estimates

Difference GMMSystem GMMCommon factor
IllegalLegalIllegalLegalIllegalLegal
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Log illegal inflowt−10.103 (0.085)−0.030 (0.030)0.752*** (0.047)0.018 (0.012)0.806*** (0.047)−0.008 (0.016)
Log illegal inflowt−2 0.027 (0.016)
Log legal inflowt−1−0.105 (0.152)−0.140* (0.074)0.266*** (0.085)0.899*** (0.031)0.050 (0.088)0.903*** (0.027)
Log legal inflowt−2 0.163** (0.081)
Log CDt−10.010 (0.059)−0.009 (0.020)0.071** (0.034)0.013 (0.011)0.063** (0.032)0.002 (0.013)
Log CDt−2 0.015 (0.031)0.008 (0.015)
Year fixed effects YesYesYesYes
Number of observations804804938938804804
Number of countries134134134134134134
Number of instruments464671717373
AR(1) p-stat0.00040.16820.00000.00000.00000.0000
AR(2) p-stat0.18110.79310.33450.08210.40060.1477
Hansen p-statistic0.00040.05740.01940.06450.00850.0601

Pooled OLS and within-estimator dependent variable: Illegal inflow

OLSWithinWithinWithin
AllAllAllRestricted sample
(1)(2)(3)(4)
Log CDt−10.306*** (0.035)0.094** (0.040)0.082** (0.038)0.071* (0.036)
Log population density0.244*** (0.050) 6.761*** (2.571)4.234 (3.394)
Institutions−1.390*** (0.095) −0.813 (0.579)−1.419** (0.672)
Constant0.887*** (0.336)2.987*** (0.130)−29.881** (12.270)−17.052 (15.764)
Year fixed effectsYesYesYesYes
Country fixed effects YesYesYes
Adjusted R20.2730.1300.1710.246
Number of observations920959920497
Number of countries 13713271

Pooled OLS and within-estimator dependent variable: Legal inflow

OLSWithinWithinWithin
AllAllAllRestricted sample
(1)(2)(3)(4)
Log CDt−l0.302*** (0.016)0.033 (0.034)−0.000 (0.011)−0.009 (0.012)
Log population density−0.231*** (0.056) 0.648 (0.562)0.599 (0.685)
Institutions0.268*** (0.071) 0.000 (0.196)−0.450** (0.176)
Constant6.905*** (0.321)5.556*** (0.062)2.943 (2.796)4.008 (3.306)
Year fixed effectsYesYesYesYes
Country fixed effects YesYesYes
Adjusted R20.1010.0390.0540.142
Number of observations1,3641,5261,364532
Number of countries 21819676

Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator

Part ALegal inflowIllegal Inflow
AllAllRestricted sampleAllAllRestricted sample
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Log CDt−10.042* (0.022)−0.000 (0.013)−0.010 (0.013)0.120*** (0.039)0.120*** (0.041)0.106** (0.041)
Log population density 0.648 (0.410)0.600 (0.499) 6.783*** (1.610)4.162** (2.111)
Institutions −0.000 (0.154)−0.453*** (0.130) −0.724* (0.371)−1.288*** (0.458)
Year fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYes
Country fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYes
Part BFirst stage dependent variable: Log CD
Log CD difference0.828*** (0.041)0.800*** (0.044)0.782*** (0.045)0.824*** (0.040)0.789*** (0.043)0.779*** (0.043)
Log population density 0.628 (0.796)3.522* (1.944) 1.133 (1.130)3.289* (1.995)
Institutions −0.576*** (0.178)−1.831*** (0.454) −1.096*** (0.316)−1.811*** (0.462)
Number of observations1,5261,364532959920497
Number of Countries2181967613713271
Kleibergen-Paap F-stat405.913327.501302.436430.805340.704322.067

Summary statistics

Variable nameCategoryMeanStandard deviationNAR(1) Coefficient σα2σε2 {{{\boldsymbol{\sigma }_\boldsymbol{\alpha }^\boldsymbol{2}} \over {\boldsymbol{\sigma }_\boldsymbol{\varepsilon }^\boldsymbol{2}}}}
Log legal inflowOverall5.8082.8881,7440.1770.97
Between2.854218
Within0.4788
Log illegal inflowOverall3.4793.2571,0960.2960.81
Between3.092137
Within1.0528
Log CDOverall1.1152.4661,7680.3090.68
Between2.241221
Within1.0398
Log CD differenceOverall0.8002.0251,7680.2300.71
Between1.800221
Within0.9348
Log GNI per capitaOverall9.8711.2461,2740.7810.96
Between1.211188
Within0.0776.8
Log population densityOverall5.0971.5671,6440.9650.98
Between1.568206
Within0.0468
Institutions scoreOverall−0.0330.9951,5920.6360.91
Between0.990200
Within0.1388
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0007 | Journal eISSN: 2520-1786
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Language: English
Accepted on: Apr 19, 2021
Published on: Jul 12, 2021
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year
Keywords:
immigration,
queuing theory,
conflict
Related subjects:
Business and economics,
Political economics,
Microeconomics,
Macroeconomics,
Economic policy,
Mathematics and statistics for economists,
Econometrics

© 2021 Nayantara Sarma, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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