Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Estimates of employment probabilities for older people in urban China and urban Russia
| China 2002 | China 2013 | China 2018 | Russia 2002 | Russia 2013 | Russia 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender (male omitted) | Female | −0.53** (0.230) | −0.77*** (0.123) | −1.03*** (0.091) | −0.56*** (0.158) | −0.11 (0.119) | −0.165 (0.142) |
| Household structure (all other living arrangements omitted) | Living alone | 1.09** (0.451) | −0.30 (0.534) | 0.49** (0.217) | 0.62** (0.288) | −0.43 (0.273) | −0.15 (0.162) |
| Couples | 0.63*** (0.443) | 0.89*** (0.101) | 0.52*** (0.099) | 0.27** (0.105) | 0.26** (0.104) | 0.29*** (0.139) | |
| Age (55/60–70 omitted) | 70–75 | −1.46*** (0.301) | −1.98*** (0.204) | −2.13*** (0.176) | −1.78*** (0.217) | −1.88*** (0.143) | −1.28*** (0.218) |
| Education (lower education omitted) | Upper middle | 1.68*** (0.305) | 0.141* (0.134) | 0.02 (0.095) | 0.60** (0.240) | 1.27*** (0.311) | 0.06 (0.208) |
| Polytechnic | 2.29*** (0.317) | 0.69*** (0.228) | 0.47*** (0.141) | 0.91*** (0.179) | 1.57*** (0.299) | 0.42** (0.201) | |
| Higher | 2.49*** (0.326) | 0.061*** (0.176) | 0.96*** (0.155) | 1.54*** (0.301) | 1.60*** (0.327) | 0.89*** (0.204) | |
| City size (small omitted) | Large | 1.26*** (0.167) | 0.88*** (0.215) | 0.35** (0.167) | 0.66*** (0.156) | 0.01 (0.117) | 1.44*** (0.275) |
| Middle | 0.27 (0.255) | −0.18 (0.191) | 0.18** (0.088) | 0.71*** (0.248) | −0.05 (0.166) | 1.06*** (0.285) | |
| Health status (healthy omitted) | Relatively healthy (not good and not bad) | −0.31 (0.258) | −0.75*** (0.117) | −0.34*** (0.090) | −0.83*** (0.263) | −0.55*** (0.156) | −1.63*** (0.236) |
| Not healthy | −1.58*** (0.403) | −0.96*** (0.234) | −1.15*** (0.177) | −1.60*** (0.291) | −1.54*** (0.184) | −0.57*** (0.187) | |
| Log of pension | −0.087*** (0.022) | −0.030*** (0.009) | −0.048*** (0.0028) | −0.046*** (0.0028) | −0.032*** (0.0024) | −1.46*** (0.179) | |
| Yearly working hours/100 | 0.03*** (0.000) | 0.03*** (0.000) | 0.02*** (0.000) | ||||
| Rate of migrants in the city | −0.03* (0.015) | −0.01** (0.005) | −0.02*** (0.003) | ||||
| Constant | −2.50*** (0.358) | −0.85** (0.1779) | −0.06 (0.123) | −0.90* (0.507) | −1.54*** (0.427) | 12.308*** (2.109) | |
| Number of observations | 2,406 | 3,340 | 6,885 | 1,582 | 3,174 | 1,749 | |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.2156 | 0.1294 | 0.2352 | 0.1749 | 0.1730 | 0.1178 | |
Parsimonious specification
| China 2002 | China 2013 | China 2018 | Russia 2002 | Russia 2013 | Russia 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender (male omitted) | Female | −0.29*** (0.029) | −0.40*** (0.040) | −0.51*** (0.032) | −0.344*** (0.051) | −0.272*** (0.030) | −0.26*** (0.034) |
| Age (40/45–55/60 omitted) | 55/60–70 | −1.44*** (0.054) | −1.60*** (0.057) | −1.68*** (0.046) | −0.151*** (0.051) | −0.326*** (0.031) | −0.30*** (0.037) |
| 70–75 | −2.92*** (0.143) | −2.83*** (0.110) | −3.20*** (0.095) | −0.422*** (0.125) | −0.781*** (0.105) | −0.62*** (0.120) | |
| Education (lower education omitted) | Upper middle | 0.31*** (0.061) | 0.06 (0.065) | 0.04 (0.051) | 0.085 (0.095) | 0.112** (0.049) | 0.06 (0.052) |
| Polytechnic | 0.78*** (0.064) | 0.65*** (0.091) | 0.45*** (0.077) | 0.518*** (0.093) | 0.227*** (0.049) | 0.12** (0.052) | |
| Higher | 1.14*** (0.082) | 0.96*** (0.074) | 1.13*** (0.057) | 0.248*** (0.093) | 0.570*** (0.050) | 0.38*** (0.052) | |
| Constant | 8.83*** (0.061) | 9.77*** (0.065) | 9.98*** (0.053) | 8.785 (0.163) | 9.797 (0.066) | 10.23*** (0.086) | |
| R2 | 0.267 | 0.341 | 0.352 | 0.102 | 0.178 | 0.145 | |
| Number of observations | 4,977 | 4,310 | 7,574 | 1,182 | 2,542 | 1,675 | |
Employment rates for older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 (%)
| China 2002 | China 2013 | China 2018 | Russia 2002 | Russia 2013 | Russia 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | Female | 5.47 | 9.48 | 10.37 | 15.57 | 23.93 | 25.97 |
| Male | 5.47 | 12.82 | 15.46 | 20.37 | 21.98 | 24.36 | |
| Living arrangements | Living alone | 12.70 | 6.10 | 13.58 | 10.62 | 19.99 | 22.68 |
| Couples | 6.82 | 14.84 | 16.92 | 16.89 | 18.57 | 23.51 | |
| All other living arrangements | 4.63 | 9.38 | 10.75 | 19.98 | 28.21 | 28.21 | |
| Age | 55/60–70 | 6.96 | 14.41 | 16.74 | 27.41 | 35.48 | 29.84 |
| 70–75 | 1.39 | 2.40 | 2.77 | 1.97 | 5.21 | 7.87 | |
| Education | Low | 1.92 | 10.59 | 12.75 | 6.34 | 10.01 | 17.35 |
| Upper middle | 6.13 | 11.56 | 11.98 | 16.75 | 25.85 | 22.75 | |
| Polytechnic | 8.58 | 6.30 | 7.80 | 34.80 | 25.05 | 25.59 | |
| Higher | 13.97 | 11.47 | 15.82 | 20.30 | 32.71 | 32.55 | |
| City size | Large | 14.72 | 4.93 | 6.37 | 19.31 | 24.31 | 27.03 |
| Middle | 5.16 | 9.19 | 14.95 | 14.01 | 23.02 | 24.38 | |
| Small | 4.62 | 12.71 | 12.28 | 11.23 | 19.00 | 17.39 | |
| Health status | Healthy (good and very good) | 7.55 | 15.65 | 16.32 | 23.00 | 43.65 | 42.67 |
| Not good, not bad | 5.05 | 7.34 | 9.63 | 32.97 | 28.43 | 28.78 | |
| Not healthy (bad and very bad) | 1.42 | 5.15 | 4.95 | 5.29 | 8.97 | 11.16 | |
| Employment rate by quantiles of pensions (from low to high) | First | 11.02 | 19.17 | 32.36 | 10.61 | 29.69 | 35.46 |
| Second | 3.17 | 20.47 | 19.92 | 20.55 | 26.49 | 27.68 | |
| Third | 4.09 | 18.85 | 13.67 | 25.49 | 19.88 | 26.65 | |
| Fourth | 3.65 | 5.90 | 3.84 | 9.17 | 15.78 | 11.57 | |
| Employment rate among elderly respondents | 5.47 | 10.81 | 12.42 | 16.88 | 23.40 | 25.51 | |
Extended specification
| China 2002 | China 2013 | China 2018 | Russia 2002 | Russia 2013 | Russia 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender (male omitted) | Female | −0.14*** (0.027) | −0.26*** (0.038) | −0.34*** (0.028) | −0.394*** (0.050) | −0.237*** (0.032) | −0.215*** (0.035) |
| Age (40/45–55/60 omitted) | 55/60–70 | −0.99*** (0.052) | −1.03*** (0.057) | −0.90*** (0.047) | −0.111** (0.052) | −0.284*** (0.030) | −0.272*** (0.036) |
| 70–75 | −2.33*** (0.132) | −1.90*** (0.109) | −1.11*** (0.180) | −0.404*** (0.130) | −0.713*** (0.095) | −0.547*** (0.115) | |
| Education (lower education omitted) | Upper middle | 0.21*** (0.056) | 0.02 (0.060) | 0.13*** (0.047) | 0.093 (0.091) | 0.099** (0.047) | 0.058 (0.050) |
| Polytechnic | 0.44*** (0.060) | 0.40*** (0.087) | 0.48*** (0.069) | 0.347*** (0.097) | 0.183*** (0.047) | 0.093** (0.040) | |
| Higher | 0.68*** (0.073) | 0.58*** (0.073) | 0.87*** (0.057) | 0.164* (0.091) | 0.455*** (0.052) | 0.368*** (0.062) | |
| Constant | 8.25*** (0.059) | 8.78*** (0.074) | 9.72*** (0.071) | 8.860 (0.176) | 9.684 (0.080) | 10.127*** (0.098) | |
| R2 | 0.396 | 0.436 | 0.305 | 0.1429 | 0.2557 | 0.2255 | |
| Observations | 4,977 | 4,310 | 6,531 | 1,182 | 2,542 | 1,675 | |
Older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 by characteristics
| China 2002 | China 2013 | China 2018 | Russia 2002 | Russia 2013 | Russia 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender, % | Female | 59.2 | 60.2 | 59.8 | 72.7 | 72.9 | 73.5 |
| Male | 40.8 | 39.8 | 40.2 | 27.3 | 27.1 | 26.5 | |
| Living arrangements, % | Living alone | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 27.6 |
| Couples | 28.6 | 27.4 | 25.2 | 29.9 | 30.6 | 26.8 | |
| All other living arrangements | 68.8 | 70.0 | 70.9 | 46.8 | 46.7 | 45.7 | |
| Age, % | 55/60–70 | 73.2 | 69.9 | 69.1 | 58.6 | 60.1 | 60.3 |
| 70–75 | 26.8 | 30.1 | 31.0 | 41.4 | 39.9 | 39.8 | |
| Education, % | Low | 36.9 | 35.2 | 31.6 | 40.2 | 25.1 | 14.2 |
| Upper middle | 39.7 | 46.0 | 53.1 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 23.7 | |
| Polytechnic | 17.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 20.1 | 31.1 | 33.2 | |
| Higher | 5.6 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 20.7 | 24.6 | 28.9 | |
| City size, % | Large | 6.7 | 15.5 | 12.1 | 58.2 | 57.6 | 50.5 |
| Middle | 30.4 | 19.4 | 32.1 | 34.0 | 33.5 | 33.1 | |
| Small | 62.9 | 65.0 | 55.9 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 16.4 | |
| Health status, % | Healthy (good and very good) | 42.3 | 44.9 | 50.3 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| Not good, not bad | 40.2 | 42.9 | 37.4 | 57.4 | 59.9 | 60.7 | |
| Not healthy (bad and very bad) | 17.5 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 37.4 | 32.1 | 32.3 | |
| Pensions | Percentage with a pension, % | 74.6 | 87.3 | 97.3 | 99.5 | 96.6 | 99.0 |
| Ln pension (in local currency, and 2013 prices), mean value | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 11.8 | |
| Number of elderly respondents | 2424 | 3404 | 6885 | 1591 | 3233 | 3240 | |